AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000929

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL TU AJ AM
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER
OSKANIAN

Classified By: Amabassador Marie Yovanovitch. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) On November 14, Ambassador had lunch with former
Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and discussed a range of
issues.


2. (C) FOREIGN POLICY: On Nagorno-Karabakh, Oskanian said
that, reading between the lines of the Moscow Declaration, it
appears there were "huge" disagreements between the parties.
He noted that the Madrid Principles
are not mentioned, and referred to so indirectly as not to be
meaningful. He concluded that while the outlines of a deal
are clear, he doesn't see an agreement emerging now.
Oskanian added, however, that he is optimistic that unlike
his predecessor, President Sargsian is capable of concluding
a deal, because he is more flexible. On Turkey, Oskanian
said that there should be more progress, including visible
progress. He does not think that an agreement is likely in
the near future, because the Turks will insist on linking the
issue to a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.


3. (C) INTERNAL POLITICS: Oskanian lamented the downward
trends in democracy and human rights. He observed that
former President Kocharian "did the same thing," but that the
situation is worse now. Oskanian said he did not know
whether Sargsian would cobble together a political solution
to resolve the issue of the March 1 detainees, such as an
amnesty. He noted, however, that he was familiar with
Sargsian's thinking in March when they were in meetings
together, and at that time, Sargsian wanted "to do something
about this."


4. (C) KOCHARIAN: Oskanian said that Oskanian is
interested in entering politics, but is working towards the
parliamentary elections in 2010 at which time he might start
his own party. That said, the timing of his political debut
depends on developments in Armenia and if there is an
opening, he will seize it. He is talking to party leaders
and others and says there is interest in working with him.
Oskanian refuted the rumors circulating that former President
Kocharian wants to stage a political comeback in the near
future and that Oskanian is helping him. He said that he
can't imagine Kocharian as Prime Minister, since he would
then be number two. He added Kocharian is doing a lot of
traveling abroad now, and has not mentioned any such plans.


5. (C) DEMOCRACY IN ARMENIA: In the meantime, Oskanian
said that next week he will launch a book of his speeches,
given during his ten years as Foreign Minister. He is also
working on a book of memoirs and he has established a new
foundation, Civilitas, which will provide analyses, host
conferences, and implement development projects. Oskanian
said the foundation's work will be focused on promoting
democracy and human rights. He noted that without improving
good governance and raising the human capacity in Armenia,
the country will never be able to really progress. He
offered the rare view in Armenia that Armenia's economic
development depends on democratic improvements, including an
independent and professional court system, freedom of speech,
and freedom of the press. "The Armenian people are best when
they are free," he concluded.


6. (C) He added that once Armenia starts to emerge as a
democracy it will become truly successful in engaging the
Armenian diaspora around the world. Oskanian claimed that
many of the most talented and wealthiest diaspora don't
identify with the Armenia of today. When he was Foreign
Minister, he made a special effort to reach out to this
group, but they want to see concrete changes before they
invest in Armenia. He said that the diaspora that is
supporting Armenia now are individuals who will always
support Armenia, although he said even among this group,
there are those that have become so frustrated that they have
stepped aside.


7. (C) COMMENT: Notwithstanding Oskanian's rebuttal, the
Armenian political class remains convinced that Oskanian is
working politically with Kocharian, and we strongly suspect
that to be correct. Oskanian is a brilliant, experienced,
and wily diplomat, and probably not above a bit of
dissimulation in the service of his goals. On Turkey and NK,
his public and private comments over recent months have often
been quite skeptical and had a tinge of sour grapes. There
may well be an element of professional jealousy and
resentment that after Oskanian's long years of hard work
(representing the uncompromising President Kocharian),his
successor, Nalbandian, may get to be the one in the Foreign
Minister's seat at the moment of breakthroughs on Turkey and
NK.
YOVANOVITCH