NEW FACT FINDING GROUP TO LOOK INTO MARCH 1 UNREST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000865 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL KDEM AM SUBJECT: NEW FACT FINDING GROUP TO LOOK INTO MARCH 1 UNREST APPOINTED YEREVAN 00000865 001.2 OF 002 (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On October 23 President Serzh Sargsian signed a decree establishing a five-member fact finding expert group tasked with collecting key facts relating to the March post-election unrest. This follows pressure from PACE Human Rights Commissioner Hammarberg for establishment of a credible, balanced fact-finding inquiry. According to the decree, the new body's information will be funneled to the ad hoc parliamentary commission to determine whether the use of lethal force against opposition protesters was justified and to ascertain the circumstances in which ten people died on that day. This is an imperfect, but positive step. The next question is whether the opposition will participate. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) President Sargsian signed a presidential decree October 23 to create an independent panel of experts to undertake fact-finding in support of the parliamentary ad hoc commission of inquiry in the political violence of March 1, 2008. According to the decree, the opposition Armenian National Congress led by Levon Ter-Petrossian and the Heritage party of Raffi Hovannisian will each name one member of the group, who will effectively represent opposition interests. Two other members will be nominated by Armenia's governing coalition. The remaining fifth member will represent the Armenian Human Rights Defender (Ombudsman),Armen Harutyunian. The group members, with the exception of the one picked by the Ombudsman, are to have judicial experience and can not be directly affiliated with any party, hold government positions, or be members of parliament. They will have the right to engage local and foreign experts in the probe. The activities of the group will be financed from the Presidential staff's budget. ¶3. (SBU) The expert group will be able to obtain information relating to post election clashes from state agencies and local government bodies and any of their officials and to direct relevant state bodies to conduct forensic tests and examinations. It can also question individuals who played a part in the unrest but only with their consent. (Note: This means that former officials -- for example, former president Robert Kocharyan -- have no legal obligation to respond to any possible questions of the group, unless they agree to do this voluntarily. End note.) The fact-finding group should forward criminal evidence it may discover to the relevant authorities for prosecution, although is exempted from this requirement if a witness testifies on the condition of confidentiality. ¶4. (SBU) The fact-finding group's work will take place entirely behind closed doors. Moreover, any member of the group who releases any information about the activities or findings of the group will be removed. The members of the group may not be replaced, except for members who may be terminated for unauthorized disclosure. The group is to make its decisions through a simple majority vote in cases of disagreement on an issue, and will elect a leader on its first day of activities in the same manner, who will organize the works of the group and sign documents. ¶5. (SBU) The group will cease work as soon as it collects and passes to the commission all the necessary facts and explanations, unless the ad hoc commission asks for additional information. The President's directive sets no deadline for the group's submission. Currently, the parliamentary commission is set to expire February 25, 20089, so that may be a de facto deadline, but it is also possible the parliamentary commission's existence could be extended once again if the work is not complete. The commission was initially set to expire in October, and was extended by legislative action on October 22. According to the decree, the findings of the expert group will be published in the manner agreed by the group at the same time when it's presented to the parliamentary commission. There is also a provision for dissenting opinions of any of the group members to be included in the final report. The decree seems to provide that the fact-finding group's final report will be made public at the same time as it is provided to the parliamentary commission. ¶6. (SBU) According to the decree the parties engaged have 10 days following the official publication of the decree to appoint their representatives. On the 11th day ( November 3) the group will be considered as formed, if there were at least three nominations. Neither the Heritage Party nor the Armenian National Congress has announced whether it will participate in the fact-finding group according to the terms set by the presidential decree. The Ombudsman has appointed his chief of staff Vahe Stepanian to the fact-finding group. Stepanian was Minister of Justice from 1990-1996 (in the YEREVAN 00000865 002.2 OF 002 Levon Ter-Petrossian administration). . The ruling coalition has made its intention to participate clear. The Ombudsman told the reporters October 27 that there were both negative and positive aspects in the decree; while the positive was not enough to be absolutely sure, it was enough to give the initiative a try. ¶7. (SBU) According to the Ombudsman the group was the first real step towards a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition, and that despite the fact that the idea on forming the expert group is belated, it is much more important that finally a balanced format for collecting facts will be formed, where each of the sides will have the opportunity to take part on equal footing. ¶8. (SBU) Heritage Party MP Stepan Safarian, noted there are both positive and negative opinions in the party, and they are currently discussing both their participation and the possible candidacies for the group. The Armenian National Congress representative Levon Zurabian has told us essentially the same. Edik Baghdasarian, the head of the Association of Investigative Journalists known for very good investigative reporting, has told Heritage about his interest in being named as that party's representative in the fact-finding group. The opposition parties have previously indicated the readiness to participate in the fact-finding group, but are troubled by some of the details of the presidential decree, such as the draconian secrecy of the commission and the lack of international representatives as equal participants in the panel. (The members of the fact-finding group are explicitly empowered to hire international expertise, but such individual would be consulting staff, as opposed to full members of the panel.) Opposition representatives had reportedly understood from PACE Human Rights Commissioner Hammarberg that he had pushed for international experts to be appointed to the fact-finding group. ¶9. (SBU) The issue of the secrecy of the activities of the group has spurred the most controversy, as most observers noted that transparency was vital for the credibility of the group, and that this manner of operation could give way to lots of pressure on group members. Heritage MP Zaruhi Postanjyan said publicly that the authorities could claim that an undesirable group member has leaked some information and this would allow them to sack that person. Levon Zurabian pointed out that the former 9/11 Commission staffers who visited Armenia had said one of the 9/11 Commission's best tool in ensuring compliance with its information requests had been the threat to hold a press conference. However, another representative, opposition Republic Party insider Artak Zeynalian, has suggested to us that things are not as simple as they seem, and that perhaps the real purpose of making the group's activities secret was to protect witnesses from retaliation, such as from allies of former president Robert Kocharian. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Notwithstanding some qualms, this fact-finding group is overall a positive development. If the two opposition groups agree to participate, the group should address several short-comings of the parliamentary commission: it will have political balance, it will have additional time and staff resources, and the ability to interview witnesses confidentially. Less ideal is the overzealous gag rule against any public disclosures before the group dissolves. The provisions for a public final report and for dissenting opinions to be included in the final report are encouraging. The opportunity for international expertise to be involved is good, but it would have been better had such representatives been appointed with full membership. ¶11. (SBU) We have had some preliminary conversations with EU officials about the idea of perhaps combining to support such international expertise in the fact-finding group, although we have more deliberation to do about the optics, potential pitfalls, and modalities of doing so. Though Heritage and the Armenian National Congress have yet to confirm their intentions, our bet is that they will choose to take part. Zurabian even hinted that the ANC might even choose belatedly to join the parliamentary ad hoc commission, as the government had invited them to do, though he emphasized this too remains to be firmly decided -- the ANC has so far stuck with its strident talking points about the illegitimacy and imbalance of the parliamentary commission. If we are correct in our prediction, and the opposition does join the group, the next test will be if they stick with it to the end or drop out again over some perceived slight or unfairness. YOVANOVICTCH