NEW SPEAKER TO AMBASSADOR: GOVERNMENT INNOCENT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000864 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EAID SOCI KDEM AM SUBJECT: NEW SPEAKER TO AMBASSADOR: GOVERNMENT INNOCENT, OPPOSITION GUILTY REF: YEREVAN 794 YEREVAN 00000864 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch reasons 1. 4 (b/d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In his first meeting with the Ambassador, new National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian blasted the opposition for blackening the image of Armenia, and asked the Ambassador to use U.S. influence to moderate the opposition. He also asked that the Ambassador end the limited funding suspension on MCC. He admitted violations in the presidential election, but not enough to influence the outcome. Abrahamian placed the blame for the March 1-2 unrest on security services, for allowing days of unauthorized rallies after the disputed presidential election. Abrahamian pledged to strengthen the role of the National Assembly, and that he was eager to re-establish a relationship between the National Assembly and USAID. He also urged the USG to push Turkey and Azerbaijan towards solving the border issue and Nagorno-Karabakh. The Ambassador pushed back on the Speaker's one-sided interpretation of the post-election unrest, said the election represented a step backward in Armenia's democracy, urged the release of political detainees, and pressed the authorities to give space to the opposition to legally as well as peacefully voice their legitimate concerns. END SUMMARY. -------------- SPEAKER BLAMES OPPOSITION FOR ALL ILLS -------------- ¶2. (C) During the Ambassador's October 9 introductory call on new National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian, the Republican Party figure wasted no time going on the offensive against the opposition. Accusing the Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP)-led opposition movement of "blackening the image" of Armenia by taking to the streets to criticize the government, Abrahamian appealed to the Ambassador for the Embassy to stop providing them with support. The Speaker said such support was "harming our country," and that the opposition would be better off devoting itself to preparing for the next parliamentary elections in three years' time. (COMMENT: In fact, we provide no support to the opposition of any kind, although our frequent advocacy of political freedoms and human rights can be misunderstood by the likes of Abrahamian as pro-LTP. END COMMENT) The Ambassador countered that sufficient political space was not being provided to the opposition to peacefully as well as legally air their views, and hence they were effectively being forced into the streets to ensure that their grievances be heard by the authorities. She added that Armenia's political process would be considerably strengthened if the opposition not only had access to such space, but also felt they had genuine power to effect change in the governance of the country. ¶3. (C) Abrahamian played down the relevancy of the opposition, saying that "their numbers are decreasing because they have nothing to tell the public." Abrahamian also pointed to the resounding loss of LTP ally Ararat Zurabian in the September 28 election for the post of Yerevan central district prefect as further evidence of the lack of public confidence in the opposition. (COMMENT: Local and international observers, including our own from the Embassy, reported widespread irregularities in the conduct of the vote as well as the vote count. However, Abrahamian has a point about LTP's decreasing public support and lack of a compelling message. END COMMENT) ¶4. (C) In a reference to the March 1-2 unrest, Abrahamian said the authorities are not scared of the opposition, but do fear provocations that seek to frame the authorities for violence initiated by the opposition. Abrahamian complained that he has not heard "any constructive statements" from the opposition on the issues of reform currently underway in Armenia. He declared that every country needs a constructive opposition, "not enemies." In response, the Ambassador enumerated the continuing concerns of the U.S. government: that the conduct of the presidential election was significantly flawed; that some of those detained during the March 1 unrest appeared to have been arrested because of their political activities; that there appeared to be a denial of fair, speedy justice in many of the ongoing trials of those detained; that the electronic media was being unfairly manipulated by the authorities so as to give a one-sided picture of the situation; and that the political rights of citizens to associate and assemble continued to be severely curtailed. The Ambassador urged the government to resolve all these issues and "turn the page" on such an unfortunate chapter in Armenia's post-independence history. YEREVAN 00000864 002.2 OF 004 ¶5. (C) Abrahamian said he was prepared, as Speaker, to open the National Assembly's rostrum to "all political forces, people, and the public" to allow open discussions to take place, as long as the discussions are based on objective, reasonable criticism. Abrahamian said that "we are ready to listen to their critiques," and that the Ambassador will see in practice that "we are inclined to a constructive approach," and that "we are democratic people." The Ambassador replied that opening up the body's rostrum to the opposition was potentially a constructive idea, provided it was carried out the right way, i.e., it would allow people to express themselves within the political system in such a way so that they could effect change. -------------- ...AND DEMANDS FULL MCC FUNDING BE RESTORED -------------- ¶6. (C) The Speaker complained to the Ambassador that "it is not understood by the public" why MCC roads funding, which is appreciated greatly by Armenia's government and its people, has been delayed. Telling the Ambassador that he was involved in the MCC's launch in Armenia, and knows the program intimately, Abrahamian said he hoped the Ambassador could "intervene to undo its delay." When told by the Ambassador that the program was delayed because of its failing eligibility indicators, the Speaker feigned surprise and said it was "news to me." Reiterating the public's alleged sensitivity to the misunderstood delay, Abrahamian also stated it was hard for citizens to see the MCC being implemented in neighboring countries, when "we are not lagging behind them." Abrahamian stated that if the USG doesn't assist Armenia in the completion of the MCC, "we'll do it ourselves." ¶7. (C) The Ambassador praised the implementation record of MCC in Armenia, and said Washington was impressed by the authorities advancing USD 16 million to keep the roads project on schedule. But until Armenia substantively addressed the fallout from the flawed presidential election and the post-election violence, as well as its failing indicators, the future of MCC would be in question. The Ambassador reiterated that it would help if the authorities did three things: adjudicate in a transparent, fair manner all of the cases of those detained in relation to the election; allow people to demonstrate legally who want to; and allow the media to work and report more freely. (NOTE: After the meeting, the Ambassador sent a letter to the Speaker in which she offered to have MCC's resident country director brief him on Armenia's failing indicators. END NOTE.) -------------- --- PUNISHING THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR MARCH 1-2 UNREST -------------- --- ¶8. (C) The Speaker assured the Ambassador that the March 1-2 events were not in Armenia's interests, and that the authorities condemned them. He underscored that the authorities were committed to punishing those who are guilty, irrespective of being in the opposition or government. He stated that the investigation into the "case of seven" (high-level political detainees) was closed by investigators a month before, and that it now is with the lawyers and the court. The Speaker argued that "we can't be blamed for a delay," but that said, the authorities have been working to disclose the truth, and nothing more. ¶9. (C) Abrahamian pinned the blame for the March 1-2 violence on "drawbacks in our security services, which should have never allowed unauthorized protests in Freedom Square as long as we did." In reference to the forcible clearing of Freedom Square early on March 1, the Speaker maintained that "we wanted to maintain order, did not want an armed movement there, and warned them (the protesters) several times that the "public was unhappy" with the protests. ¶10. (C) The Ambassador recognized the right of authorities in such situations to prosecute those guilty for violence, but noted ultimately it was also the authorities' responsibility to maintain order during protests; create an environment so that those who want to demonstrate can do so legally; and ensure that the judiciary is used to protect those who are innocent. The Ambassador said the United States looked forward to a final report of the parliamentary ad hoc commission formed to study the unrest. The Ambassador also emphasized that America's best partners are those where democracy is fully established and where the people trust their government. YEREVAN 00000864 003.2 OF 004 -------------- NOT SO BAD ON ELECTIONS, MEDIA, OR RALLIES -------------- ¶11. (C) Abrahamian defended Armenia's recent elections record, pointing to international observers' alleged assessment of the May 2007 parliamentary elections and February 2008 presidential election as steps forward in democracy. Violations in the 2008 election existed, but they were not enough to influence the results. The Speaker also said media concerns were being addressed, and said that in the last three months opposition members have been appearing on TV, including on public television channels. Abrahamian said, however, that "they (the opposition) always reiterate the same thing." ¶12. (C) The Ambassador pointedly replied that the presidential election was not a step forward for democracy in Armenia, as the Speaker had said. The March 1 events were a tragedy, and she offered her condolences for the ten or more people who died. She noted the recent irregularities in the Yerevan central district prefect election (reftel) that were witnessed by U.S. and international observers. All of these were troubling signs that needed to be addressed for Armenia to prove with deeds its stated commitment to democratization. ¶13. (C) Abrahamian also defended the banning of opposition rallies on various grounds. He first argued that "we have not denied, but proposed new venues" to the opposition when their requests have come in. (COMMENT: The alternative venues offered by the authorities are comparable to denying protesters in Washington access to the Mall and offering them instead the parking lot of RFK stadium. END COMMENT.) The Ambassador objected to the Speaker's rationale for banning the opposition's rallies, and noted that in the 90 rally requests submitted since March, only two were permitted for the originally requested venue. She reiterated that by continually depriving the opposition their right to be heard, the authorities only aggravated the situation. ¶14. (C) Defending the March 1 clearing of protesters from Freedom Square, the Speaker stated that "the NSS has told us the opposition would seize Opera (aka Freedom) Square for months if allowed to demonstrate there once." He also defended the summer ban on Freedom Square as a correct one, saying rallies would have interfered with public's use of the square for leisure. "We tell the mayor to authorize opposition rallies but not marches" through downtown in order to prevent additional traffic jams on downtown streets that are already suffering snarls from large construction projects. The Speaker also pointed to the denial of rally requests by the ruling Republican Party and its coalition partner the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutiun) as proof the authorities were not discriminating against the opposition. -------------- NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO HAVE LARGER ROLE -------------- ¶15. (C) Abrahamian declared that he would do his best to increase the role of the National Assembly. He stated that it cannot be an appendage of the government or any other body, that it will be independent, and that "we will do everything in the National Assembly so that Armenia is viewed as a democratic state." He did not elaborate on how he intended to accomplish this. (COMMENT: The National Assembly has been long viewed by local observers as merely being a rubber stamp for the executive branch, with few exceptions. Holding an overwhelming majority of seats, the government has shown itself willing and able to enact snap legislation with minimal debate, at least twice this year alone. END COMMENT.) The Ambassador said she was happy to hear the Speaker's plans for strengthening the National Assembly, increasing its roles, and strengthening institutional checks and balances. She also welcomed his interest in cooperation between the National Assembly and USAID on institutional strengthening programs, asking him to let the Embassy know what he had in mind. -------------- U.S. SHOULD PUSH TURKEY, AZERBAIJAN TO DEAL -------------- ¶17. (C) Abrahamian said Armenia was ready for a "fair dialogue" with all countries in the region, and pointed to President Sargsian's invitation of Turkey's President Gul to Armenia in early September, and Armenia's offer of relations without preconditions. But the Speaker cautioned that absent a response from Turkey within one or two months, Armenia could change its mind. He also complained to the Ambassador YEREVAN 00000864 004.2 OF 004 about the lack of compensation to Armenia for its losses resulting from the August crisis between Russian and Georgia, saying Armenia had suffered USD 680 mln in damages with the loss of its only rail link to the outside world, while America was compensating Georgia USD 1 billion. He said Armenia favored a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (NK) as long as it was based on the principle of self-determination for Armenians residing there. He added that Armenia would continue to favor and support the MINSK Group format, but that it was up to the United States to push Turkey and Azerbaijan on both normalizing ties and solving the NK conflict. ¶18. (C) The Ambassador told the Speaker that movement on Turkish-Armenian relations and resolution of the NK conflict were top U.S. policy priorities. She cited Armenia's economic difficulties from the Russia-Georgia crisis as evidence that the countries in the region need to seize the moment, normalize their relations, and settle the NK conflict. The Ambassador emphasized that Armenia needs choices and options for its trade and transportation routes, which was made plain by the crisis. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶19. (C) Abrahamian typifies the type of Republican politician that makes up a large chunk of the parliament and of the ruling party establishment: politico-oligarchs who use political power to advance their business interests and vice versa. Such figures brought Sargsian to power, but also could become a potential threat to Sargsian's rule if he moves overtly against their interests. Over time, Abrahamian's political fate may be a bellwether of reform prospects during President Sargsian's Administration. At the moment, it is not clear to us whether he won his current position because he enjoys Sargsian's trust and confidence, or conversely whether he wrested the job from Sargsian unwillingly, and Sargsian did not feel secure enough in his position to refuse. ¶20. (C) On a positive note, Abrahamian seems genuinely interested in restoring constructive links between the Embassy and the National Assembly. His predecessor had essentially halted U.S. parliamentary assistance work, which the former speaker (a weaker figure overall) saw as a threat to his control. It may prove possible to resume some limited parliamentary assistance programming on a test basis. There are people and committees within the parliamentary organization with whom we can usefully interact and work with on longer-term institutional strengthening, if Abrahamian will allow his subordinates the latitude to participate. We hope to explore these possibilities. YOVANOVITCH