EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES TURKEY, KARABAKH AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000854

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AM
SUBJECT: EUR A/S FRIED DISCUSSES TURKEY, KARABAKH AND
DEMOCRACY WITH ARMENIA'S OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY

REF: YEREVAN 844

YEREVAN 00000854 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovich. Reason 1.4 (b/d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) During A/S Daniel Fried's October 17-18 visit to
Armenia, opposition and civil society figures complained
about political rights and authorities' failure to heal the
wounds from the flawed presidential election and March 1
unrest. While supportive of GOAM efforts on rapprochement
with Turkey and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict,
they state that President Sargsian lacked the legitimacy to
resolve these issues. Moreover, they argued that the real
motive of the president's foreign policy overtures is to
distract the international community from the lack of
democratic reform at home, and especially the political
prisoners problem. A/S Fried assured that the USG will
continue to press its democracy agenda in Armenia, while at
the same time supporting Armenia's efforts at reconciliation
with its neighbors, a process Fried viewed as essential to
bolstering the country's independence, sovereignty, security
and democratic development. Fried made the same points during
a press conference on October 17. END SUMMARY.

COMMON THEMES THROUGHOUT
--------------


2. (C) During his October 17-18 visit to Yerevan, A/S Fried
met with the leader of the Armenian Apostolic Church, His
Holiness Karekin II; civil society representatives; scholars
and think tanks directors ; MPs from the opposition Heritage
party; and leaders of the Armenian National Congress (ANC),a
coalition of 18 opposition parties established in May by
ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian to dispute February's
presidential election result and push for democratic reform.
Not surprisingly, the ANC, Heritage Party, and civil society
interlocutors articulated quite similar viewpoints, critical
of authorities, and differing only in degree. The Catholicos
was characteristically more pro-governmental. A/S Fried
deployed consistent messages in all meetings about the
importance of seizing the historical moment to achieve
hoped-for breakthroughs on Turkey and Nagorno-Karabakh, and
the importance for Armenia's opposition not -) out of
misplaced political opportunism -- to derail processes that
are fundamentally in Armenia's national interests. He also
reassured that the United States would not neglect the
democracy and human rights agenda, and would pursue these
issues in parallel with regional stability issues.

LITTLE PROGRESS ON DEMOCRATIC REFORM
--------------


3. (C) Opposition and civil society representatives
complained about the suppression of political and civil
liberties since President Sargsian took office, with some
asserting the current situation is worse than it was under
former President Kocharian. Of greatest concern is the
continued detention of some 75 persons for their activities
related to the presidential election and post-election
protests that ended with the violent March 1 crackdown. Some
have been held without charges for eight months, and the
trials that have occurred to date have been a farce,
opposition and civil society figures insist. There have been
few acquittals, with guilty verdicts issued based on highly
questionable evidence, as our own emboffs have witnessed
evidence. Of equally great concern, according to opposition
representatives, was that the authorities apparently plan to
attribute criminal liability to 11 prominent opposition
figures, including former Foreign Minister Alexander
Arzumanian, for the ten deaths and over 200 injuries that
occurred during the March 1 unrest.


4. (C) While interlocutors noted some welcome reforms, mainly
in the economic sphere, they griped that President Sargsian
speaks about democracy while simultaneously banning rallies
and manipulating the judiciary. Even if Sargsian were to
have noble intentions, ANC representatives claimed that his
regime will be forever tainted by the March 1 deaths. They
complained that the authorities continue to deny the vast
majority of opposition applications to hold rallies, although
the unauthorized ones have all proceeded without incident.
They also claimed that police continue to harass their
supporters during their nightly "political promenades"
through downtown, and that police had beaten opposition
supporters one evening just a week before Fried's visit.


5. (C) Participants highlighted recent local elections in and
around Yerevan, which they alleged featured violence,
attempted kidnappings, shooting between members of rival

YEREVAN 00000854 002.2 OF 004


camps, beating of an election proxy, and serious vote fraud.
If the authorities were truly committed to democratic change,
said the civil society representatives, the message has yet
to reach the grass roots who support the ruling regime.


6. (C) The suppression of media freedoms continues to be a
major concern, according to these interlocutors. They
pointed to September's two-year moratorium on the issuance of
new TV broadcasting licenses that the National Assembly
passed hastily, with three readings of the controversial
legislation passed in just one day. They complained that all
of Yerevan's 22 television stations are closely monitored and
controlled by the authorities, and that radio is increasingly
being pressured to come into line as well. MPs from the
opposition Heritage party stated that the opposition should
have the right to at least one TV frequency in Armenia.

WEST SACRIFICING DEMOCRACY FOR A TURKEY AND NK SOLUTION?
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Interlocutors complained of the passivity of foreign
governments in reacting to the Armenian authorities'
democratic backsliding, noting that the failure to sanction
Armenia has only emboldened the authorities to act with
impunity. They were especially critical of the OSCE/ODIHR
reports on the ongoing trials of opposition supporters, which
they charged were more focused on observers' procedural
compliance in compiling their reports than with the fairness
of the legal proceedings they were tasked with observing.
(Comment: The OSCE/ODIHR trial monitoring project has not
published anything to date about its methodology or findings.
We suspect that the opposition complaints on this are based
mostly on supposition and inference. The Armenian trial
monitoring project is being substantially funded by U.S.
FREEDOM Support Act funds, at post's urging. We continue to
believe this process will have value in systematically
documenting the court proceedings against the
politically-charged defendants from the March 1 events. End
comment).

RESOLVING MARCH 1, AND THE STATE OF THE OPPOSITION
-------------- --------------


8. (C) The opposition asserted it refused to cooperate with
the National Assembly's ongoing inquiry into the March 1
events because parliamentary commission was stacked with
pro-governmental forces. They said they could not go along
with a commission where the authorities offered only three of
the 11 seats to the opposition. They also claimed that
authorities were using the commission to cover up their
misdeeds, at which time they also expressed disappointment
that the USG had supported the commission by inviting several
former 9/11 commission experts to visit in mid-October and
share lessons learned with the parliamentary commission.
Both the ANC and Heritage have promised, however, to join a
planned new fact-finding commission recently proposed by
Thomas Hammarberg, the Council of Europe's Commissioner for
Human Rights, which would give equal say to both the
opposition and authorities. The fact-finding group is to
reportedly serve as a consultative body to the parliamentary
commission conducting the ongoing inquiry.


9. (C) Interlocutors also fretted over the public's gradual
disengagement from politics. They attributed the waning
interest to the public's recognition that they have no real
outlet with which to express their displeasure with the
status quo. ANC representatives said that their rally turnout
has declined somewhat. (Note: although approximately 15,000
turned out for a rally later on October 17. End note). They
also fretted that the current opposition will once again be
weak if it fractures, and argued that the ANC risks breaking
up altogether, since the only common bond that links its 18
constituent parties -- from liberal democrats to Marxists to
socialists -- is a desire for democratic reform.


10. (C) Civil Society representatives stated their belief
that neither the authorities nor the opposition led by
Ter-Petrossian are truly interested in democratic reform.
They said that while LTP may be very articulate and attracts
supporters throughout society, his background and cryptic
motives weaken his legitimacy as a genuine reformer. While
LTP may have given shape to the country's current opposition
movement, he also set precedents for restricting media
freedoms during his tenure as Armenia's first president
(1991-98). LTP also disappointed many of his pro-Western
supporters with his pro-Russian remarks on the Georgia-Russia
war in early August. Many of LTP's own supporters don't
understand his current strategy, NGO representatives said,
including his opposition to proposals for the authorities to
amnesty the political detainees (largely on the principle
that it would imply they were guilty of some offense). Civil

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society representatives also lamented the fact that Armenian
politics continue to be largely personality-driven instead of
issue-focused.


11. (C) Heritage, which is the sole opposition party in the
National Assembly, holding just seven of 131 seats, is
conscious of the need to develop Armenia's political culture.
Its MPs seek to present a new model of a political party
that works transparently, under the microscope of its
constituents. But they said they could be only so effective
given the current make-up of the National Assembly, where
most of their proposals go ignored by the ruling coalition.
They alleged that their party should have gained a greater
number of seats in the May 2007 parliamentary elections, were
it not for widespread vote fraud by the ruling regime. Its
MPs hope that party leader Raffi Hovannissian will run in the
next presidential election (2013),but fear that his chances
will continue to be slim -- in spite of his popularity --
without changes to the current political system that curbs
the media and severely restricts people's rights of
association and assembly. The MPs fretted over their own
security in recording voting irregularities in the
presidential election, with several of them having been
assaulted for doing so, and one of them, Armen Martirossian,
having even been stabbed during the March 1 unrest. They
added that law enforcement agencies have shown no interest in
identifying or pursuing Martirossian's assailant, who remains
at large as of today.

RESOLVING CONFLICTS WITH TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN
-------------- -


12. (C) Most interlocutors expressed strong support in
principle for the authorities' efforts at reconciliation with
Turkey and reaching a compromise solution with Azerbaijan on
Nagorno-Karabakh, though the opposition complained Sargsian
was gaining undeserved international credit for doing so.
They also hoped for an open border and diplomatic relations
with Turkey, but remain concerned that the Presidents of all
three countries -- Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey -- may be
unable to face down domestic opposition. They said that
Presidents Sargsian and Aliyev need to devise a face-saving
plan, which has eluded Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in
the past, to finesse difficult issues to reach a fair deal.
ANC representatives argued that President Sargsian may make
concessions, because of his political weakness, that he
cannot make stick, and also argued that Sargsian might seem
to make concessions to curry favor with mediators, while
counting on Azerbaijani President Aliyev ultimately to reject
any proposed deal.


13. (C) During A/S Fried's meeting with His Holiness Karekin
II at the Mother See of Holy Edjmiadzin, the Catholicos
expressed hope for a peaceful solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But he also complained about
bellicose rhetoric from Azerbaijan, noting that the
Azerbaijani government a day before had announced plans to
increase its military budget yet again. On Turkey, he noted
that while Armenia's authorities have expressed willingness
to re-establish relations with no preconditions, Turkey
continues to raise its denial of the Armenian genocide and
its linking the opening of the border with resolution of
Nagorno-Karabakh. The Catholicos also complained about the
Georgian government's alleged abrogations of the rights of
the Armenian Apostolic Church in Georgia, and alluded to
property disputes between the church and Georgian
authorities. A/S Fried undertook to raise these concerns
with Georgian authorities.


14. (C) ANC leader and Ter-Petrossian confidant David
Shahnazarian said he supports the outreach effort to Turkey
but disagrees with the authorities' approach, which includes
agreeing to a historical commission on the Armenian genocide
and a three-way mediation process involving Turkey, Armenia
and Azerbaijan. While it is fine for scholars to discuss the
events of 1915, there is a risk that at the political level
one side will always refer to the work or findings of the
commission to derail the process. He also expressed doubts
about the viability of a three-country process among Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey to address the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
A/S Fried assured Shahnazarian and his ANC allies that the
USG will continue to support the Minsk Group process as the
negotiating framework on Nagorno-Karabakh.


15. (C) A/S Fried responded that the USG will continue to
press the authorities on democratic reform, noting that a
country's behavior inside its borders usually corresponds
with its external behavior. However, the USG will at the
same time support Armenia's efforts to settle the
longstanding conflicts with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and
pointed out it was in both Azerbaijan's and Armenia's own

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interests to reduce their dependence on Georgia as a transit
route, the vulnerability of which the August crisis made
abundantly clear. He noted as positive the less aggressive
rhetoric coming out of Azerbaijan after the August war
between Russia and Georgia, and believed that President
Aliyev appears to have realized that speaking about war
ultimately could lead to it, which would have disastrous
consequences for Azerbaijan. A/S Fried suggested that the
Azerbaijani military buildup -- announced the day before --
may be related to reasons besides Nagorno-Karabakh, given the
country's other geopolitical challenges. He also expressed
optimism about Turkish readiness for reconciliation,
asserting that Turkey is becoming a more progressive and open
country with time. He singled out the fact that thousands of
Turks (very few of Armenian descent) demonstrated after the
2006 murder of ethnic Armenian journalist Hrant Dink,
chanting "We are all Armenians."

CORRUPTION
--------------


16. (C) Few people had anything encouraging to say about the
authorities' efforts to combat corruption. They asserted
that while President Sargsian publicly rails against
corruption, and has undertaken some reforms, he is still the
most corrupt figure in Armenia. They acknowledged that the
authorities have taken some measures against low-level
figures, and made a public show of cracking down on tax
evasion by mandating the introduction of cash registers at
all retail points. At the same time, however, they noted
that there have been no reports of arrests for large-scale
corruption. Civil society figures also cited a continuing
lack of transparency in government dealings, such as the
recent government decision to lower the water level of Lake
Sevan and the opaque awarding of a tender to a third mobile
phone provider without a transparent bidding process.
Opposition and civil society interlocutors complained that
the control of state resources may in fact be worse now than
it was under former President Kocharian. (Comment: As it
turned out, the mobile telephone license went to the
well-known European telecoms firm Orange, which seems a
well-qualified provider, and presumably is not enmeshed in
Armenian corruption. End comment)


A/S Fried has cleared this cable
YOVANOVITCH