NEW SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY COVERS GOAM TALKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000829 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2018 TAGS: EAID PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI KDEM AM SUBJECT: NEW SECURITY COUNCIL SECRETARY COVERS GOAM TALKING POINTS YEREVAN 00000829 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b/d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During the Ambassador's introductory call on the Secretary of Armenia's National Security Council, Artur Baghdassarian echoed almost verbatim points raised a day before by National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian. Baghdassarian demonized the opposition led by Levon Ter-Petrossian. He emphasized the importance of continuing the MCC program. He ruled out amnesty of POLITICAL detainees unless they admitted their guilt first. He urged the U.S. to push Turkey and Azerbaijan towards breakthroughs in the region. He also described a revamped NSC whose role, he claimed, will increase over time -- a premise we doubt. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- TER-PETROSSIAN A DESTRUCTIVE FORCE ON ARMENIAN POLITICS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador's called October 10 on Artur Baghdassarian, Armenia's Secretary of the National Security Council (NSC) and leader of the Rule of Law party in the governing coalition. Baghdassarian, formerly of the opposition, assailed opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP). He said that opposition candidates must be constructive, that LTP is not, and that that LTP had built his campaign upon hatred. Baghdassarian said he did not support the LTP-led opposition's "destructive approach where they don't participate in anything." He said that LTP should get elected to the National Assembly and participate there so that his and the opposition's voice could be heard. Baghdassarian wondered out loud why LTP and the opposition have not joined the March 1 ad hoc parliamentary commission, where they could have played a constructive role and advanced their struggle that way. Baghdassarian fumed that "LTP tried to blackmail me into supporting him during the elections," which confirms his destructive POLITICAL approach. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador regretted the non-participation of the opposition in the ad hoc commission's work, saying that opposition participation would strengthen the credibility of the results. But at the same time she saw their boycott as a symptom of a POLITICAL system where the opposition felt disenfranchised, and where their views were unheard or not respected. The Ambassador acknowledged that the situation was complex, and that it was going to take a master politician to bring everyone together, but that President Sargsian had shown such courage before, in the form of inviting Turkish President Gul to Armenia. If the President has the courage to reach out internationally, he must surely also have the courage to do so at home. -------------- -- MCC'S CONTINUATION KEY TO ARMENIA'S DEVELOPMENT -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Baghdassarian said Armenia attached great importance to continuation of the MCC program. He said that "we are continuing the program so that we do not fail in our development efforts," and said that the authorities need to make sure it is fully implemented, as the whole of Armenia's public is aware of the program. Baghdassarian also said that the continuation of MCC has an impact on the reputation of the United States in Armenia. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador replied that the MCC's continuation also bears upon Armenia's reputation in America, and that Armenia had a lot of work to do in order to remain eligible for the performance-based assistance. She reminded Baghdassarian that Armenia was failing on its indicators, and that the only way to address them was by working on the myriad of good governance issues called into question by the flawed presidential election, March 1-2 unrest, and post-election suppression of civil and POLITICAL liberties. She urged Baghdassarian to help President Sargsian achieve the continuation of MCC, which he has publicly stated is of utmost importance to Armenia and its people. -------------- REFORMS IN ALL DIRECTIONS NEEDED -------------- ¶6. (C) Baghdassarian admitted that "reforms in all directions are needed," but so was understanding from its friends, such as the Untied States, as Armenia embarks upon difficult reforms. He acknowledged that Armenia has to cultivate a more active POLITICAL dialogue, strengthen domestic RELATIONS YEREVAN 00000829 002.2 OF 003 through democratic reforms, and combat corruption -- and that these were the reasons he chose to enter the coalition government. He said the problem with the reform process, particularly POLITICAL reforms, was that "most Armenians support them until they are affected directly." That said, Baghdassarian stated that President Sargsian was committed to reforms, and realizes that they are not an overnight process that can be fulfilled right away. ¶7. (C) On democracy issues, the Ambassador said that the United States seeks to support what the President has pledged as priorities -- democratic reforms and combating corruption -- because the Armenian people want these reforms. She said that good governance and freedom of press were keys to getting buy-in from an opposition that would choose to work within the POLITICAL system, and thereby increase the country's internal stability and security. The Ambassador told Baghdassarian that the United States was dismayed that people were still in prison for acting upon their POLITICAL views, and hoped that the authorities would mete out a speedier, fairer justice than has been the case so far. ¶8. (C) Baghdassarian countered that an amnesty would be applied only if people admitted their guilt and asked for forgiveness first. He said the ongoing court cases, the ad hoc commission and upcoming fact-finding commission were all in train, and that "we hope to have the truth" as soon as possible, so the innocent can walk free and the guilty go punished. He did not rule out the possibility of an amnesty after the various processes had taken their course, but only with a prior admission of guilt first. -------------- U.S. CAN MAKE TURKEY, AZERBAIJAN MOVE -------------- ¶9. (C) Baghdassarian said that the new direction in Armenia's foreign policy -- dialogue with Turkey -- is based on "our belief that we need to improve RELATIONS in the region." Adding that "our neighbors are not our enemies," Baghdassarian said the region needed to identify ways of dialogue and cooperation, and this is where the United States can play a major role. Baghdassarian, like Speaker Abrahamian stated to the Ambassador the day before (septel), argued that Armenia had suffered USD 680 million in damages from the Russia-Georgia conflict, which he said made it more incumbent upon the Unites States to push Turkey and Azerbaijan along toward breakthroughs in their RELATIONS with Armenia. Baghdassarian also said the only way out of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was through peaceful negotiations. ¶10. (C) The Ambassador said that the United States shared these priorities. The United States wants to support the possible opening with Turkey, as well as the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh, which could enjoy great promise after Azerbaijan's imminent presidential election. The Georgia-Russian conflict showed how important it is for Armenia and the region to resolve these issues peacefully, and to improve stability. The United States stood poised to work with Armenia and the region on these issues. -------------- NSC's NEW STATUS AND RESPONSIBILITIES -------------- ¶11. (C) Baghdassarian said the Armenian National Security Council was being revamped thanks to recent legislation that provided for its own dedicated staff. While the NSC currently has eight staff units, he said it will reach 25 by mid-2009, and a new building is currently being erected near the Presidency to house it. Baghdassarian listed the composition of the NSC (the President is its Chairman, and its members are the Prime Minister, Speaker of the National Assembly, the Foreign and Defense Ministers, the Chief of the National Security Service and the Chief of Police, and the NSC Secretary). ¶12. (C) Baghdassarian said the role of the new NSC will be to coordinate security-related activities between relevant agencies. It will have a wide scope of activities that will be covered by two interagency commissions: one on defense, EU, and NATO issues which Baghdassarian will lead, and one primarily focusing on information security. Its larger portfolios are broken down into domestic security, which will include oversight over reforms of law enforcement agencies; energy and transportation security; and foreign affairs, where the NSC will coordinate Armenia's activities and efforts vis-a-vis NATO, EU, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Baghdassarian noted that he would appreciate exchanges with the U.S. National Security Council. YEREVAN 00000829 003.2 OF 003 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Baghdassarian's talking points closely reflect what Speaker Abrahamian told the Ambassador, and Baghdassarian told the Ambassador that he had earlier spoken to Abrahamian about the Ambassador's meeting with the Speaker. Clearly, the GOAM wants to ensure unity of message to the new Ambassador. The talking points reflect the current GOAM strategy for getting through the smoldering POLITICAL crisis and winning over the international community. Blame is to be apportioned exclusively to the opposition, while the authorities tout their openness to dialogue in scenarios where only they control the outcome. Reforms are needed, but they will come at their own speed, and not as knee jerk reactions to outsiders' criticism. Armenia's foreign policy initiatives should be rewarded, and pressure placed on Turkey and Azerbaijan to reciprocate. ¶14. (C) While Baghdassarian tried to portray himself as reform-minded, he has very little credibility at this point. Firstly, he was a hairsbreadth from joining Ter-Petrossian's radical opposition movement in the days after the flawed election, but President-elect Sargsian clearly made him a better offer. Baghdassarian's tune changed 180 degrees overnight, and his party electorate seems to have abandoned him in disgust. Sargsian named Baghdassarian to a position that had never been anything but an empty, part-time, ceremonial role, and Baghdassarian has set about trying to build an empire out of it. This echoes Baghdassarian's previous round in the governing coalition in 2003-2006, during which he was allowed to become speaker of parliament and built up an expansive set of new staff organizations. President Sargsian will tolerate Baghdassarian as long as Baghdassarian stays on message and serves as a useful fig leaf of POLITICAL plurality in the ruling coalition. We do not believe, however, that Baghdassarian will ever be a real insider or that he enjoys the confidence or respect of the president or anyone else in government. YOVANOVITCH