ARMENIA MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000789 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EAID ETRD KTDB AM SUBJECT: ARMENIA MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2008 YEREVAN 00000789 001.2 OF 003 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. Despite political turmoil during much of the period, Armenia continued to experience strong economic growth during the first half of 2008, though slightly below 2007 levels. Tax revenues increased considerably due to higher VAT collections. The trade deficit has widened, however, with strong growth in import volumes and continuing declines in exports. The nominal exchange rate was relatively stable in the first six months of 2008, after significant appreciation over the past several years. END SUMMARY. -------------- -- CONSTRUCTION AND SERVICES MAIN DRIVERS OF GROWTH -------------- --- ¶2. Armenia's GDP grew 10.3 percent in the first half of 2008-- compared to 11.6 percent during the same period in 2007--to approximately USD 4.3 billion at current exchange rates. GDP per capita was equal to USD 1,334. As in recent years, this growth relied primarily on construction and services, each of which contributed 3.4 percentage points to the overall GDP growth rate. ¶3. The construction sector has grown more than five-fold in real terms since 2001, and increased by 14 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2008. This growth rate is lower than in 2006 and 2007, when growth rates during the same period were 17.2 percent and 31.8 percent, respectively. Private funds constituted 87.9 percent of spending in the sector, with the remainder coming from the state budget and humanitarian assistance projects. The GOAM recently allocated USD 17 million into the Millennium Challenge Account - Armenia program, to be spent by the end of this year for reconstruction of Armenia's rural roads as a supplement to U.S. funding from the Millennium Challenge Corporation. Growth in construction was recorded primarily in housing, processing industries, and trade and services sectors. ¶4. Growth in services, currently at 8.6 percent, has moderated compared to 2006-2007 trends (13.2 percent and 13.8 percent respectively) largely because of slower growth in trade, financial intermediation, and real estate services, as well as a decline in the transportation sector. ¶5. The industrial sector, which comprised 16.9 percent of overall GDP, continued its poor performance in the first six months of 2008. Industrial output (energy included) declined 0.2 percent, against 1.4 percent growth in the first half of 2007. The manufacturing sector, which comprises 65.4 percent of overall industrial output, declined by 2.4 percent. The food processing industry recorded only 3.3 percent growth, compared to 12.2 percent growth in the first six months of last year. Most of the other manufacturing subsectors recorded negative growth, including metallurgy, the second largest subsector after food processing, which declined by 7 percent, compared to 7.7 percent growth in the first half of 2007. The jewelry industry continued to decline in 2008, falling by another 28.8 percent, despite the cooperation agreement signed last year between Armenia and Russian diamond monopoly Alrosa. The mining industry grew by 5.2 percent. ¶6. The agricultural sector grew by 8.1 percent in the first half of 2008 (compared to 1.9 percent contraction in the first half of 2007),with plant cultivation and livestock sectors recording 8.7 percent and four percent growth, respectively. Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing contributed 0.9 percentage points to the overall growth of the economy, accounting for 9.4 percent of overall GDP. The livestock sector was affected by last year's outbreak of African Swine Fever, which spread into several regions of Armenia. The Government plans to address the problem of slow growth of incomes in agriculture with its new agricultural development program, which is also aimed at addressing food security issues in the country. The government piloted a subsidy plan that would provide cash payments to farmers for cultivation of their land of up to 7 hectares. This year the scheme will include cultivation of around 6,300 hectares of land. Another program involves subsidizing interest rates for credits to small and medium farmers in remote and mountain areas. -------------- PRICES INCREASE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Inflation has risen sharply since the beginning of 2008, YEREVAN 00000789 002.2 OF 003 bringing June 12-month inflation to 9.6 percent, which is around 4 percentage points more than the CBA's inflation target for 2008 (a target of four percent, with a variation of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points). Acceleration of inflation in the first half of 2008 was due mainly to higher food prices, which grew by 12.4 percent compared to January-June 2007, and the removal of natural gas subsidies on May 1, which the World Bank estimates contributed about 0.6 percentage points to CPI inflation during this period. The increase in food prices resulted largely from increased prices in bread products and vegetable and animal oils (34.1 percent and 33.9 percent increases compared to January-June 2007, respectively). Inflation of non-food products and services also picked up (4.8 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively). Strong growth in domestic demand as well as price rigidities in several key goods markets have also contributed to inflation. ¶8. To reduce inflationary pressures the CBA gradually raised its refinancing rate from 5.75 percent at the end of 2007 to seven percent in June 2008. The IMF expects end-year CPI inflation to be close to seven percent, which exceeds the announced inflation target set by the CBA, but is still lower than in neighboring countries. -------------- NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE OF DRAM STABLIZED -------------- ¶9. The value of the Armenian Dram (AMD) relative to the USD was stable in the first half of the 2008, depreciating just 0.3 percent against the USD between December 2007 and June 2008 despite the robust growth rate of private transfer inflows. According to the World Bank, the pause in the strong appreciation trend of the past several years may reflect a widening of the current account and trade deficits, as well as less firmly anchored expectations. The average exchange rate in June was at AMD 304.93/USD, 11.6 percent lower than in June 2007. -------------- REMITTANCES GROW CONSIDERABLY -------------- ¶10. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, cash transfers to Armenia through commercial banks increased by around 34 percent to USD 668.6 million in the first half of 2008. Remittances sent by Armenians working abroad come principally from Russia and the United States, and comprised approximately 15 percent of Armenia's GDP during the first half of 2008. [NOTE: It is possible that some of this apparent remittance growth arises simply from the formal banking sector capturing a larger percentage of the overall remittance flow from non-commercial/informal money transfer arrangements, but there are no data to confirm or refute this premise. In any case, the overall growth in remittance rates remains significant. END NOTE) -------------- EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES INCREASE -------------- ¶11. The official unemployment rate based on registered unemployed was 6.3 percent in June 2008, down from 7.1 percent at the end of ¶2007. A more realistic figure is usually provided by household surveys, for which 2007 data are not yet available. However, these surveys indicated an unemployment rate in 2006 of approximately 27 percent; about 50 percent of the unemployed lacked higher education. Average monthly nominal wages were equal to approximately USD 281 in June 2008, 20.7 percent higher than a year ago when expressed in Armenian Drams (AMD). As employment has been relatively stable, the high growth rate in wages suggests a further rise in unit labor costs. -------------- -------------- HIGHER TAX REVENUES RESULT IN SMALL BUDGET SURPLUS -------------- -------------- ¶12. According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance, budget revenues in January-June 2008 were equal to approximately USD 1,121.1 million, and budget expenditures were equal to USD 1,105.5 million, posting a USD 15.6 million budget surplus. Both budget revenues and expenditures were up by around 41 percent (calculated in AMD) compared to the same period in 2007. During the first half of 2008, tax revenues have grown approximately 37 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. VAT revenues grew by 46 percent, while profit tax and personal income tax revenues increased by around 24 percent each. Tax and customs revenues accounted for 79.8 percent of total budget revenues. Based on the assumption that the GOAM will save higher-than-expected tax revenues, the IMF YEREVAN 00000789 003.2 OF 003 projects that the fiscal deficit will be around 1.2 percent of GDP in 2008, significantly lower than the budgeted 2.6 percent. -------------- FOREIGN TRADE DEFICIT EXPANDS -------------- ¶13. During the first half of 2008, foreign trade turnover grew by 28.9 percent, reaching USD 2,428.6 million, with exports equal to 520.7 million and imports equal to USD 1,907.9 million. The trade deficit increased by 66 percent to USD 1.39 billion, due to strong growth in imports of durable goods, and a decline in export volumes. Imports grew by 40.3 percent in dollar terms, reflecting higher food and energy prices, as well as increased imports of machinery and equipment. Exports decreased 0.8 percent, compared to 20.5 percent growth in the first half of 2007. Exports of diamonds and gold and jewelry continued to decline, in this case by 23.3 percent over the prior year, dragging down overall export growth rates. As in the previous year, leading export product groups included food products, minerals, base metals and precious and semi-precious stones and metals, as well as products made from them. Armenia's main export partners were Russia (14.2 percent of total exports),Germany (8.8 percent),Ukraine (6.6 percent),Kazakhstan (5.7 percent) and China (6.1 percent). The leading import partners were Russia (11.3 percent),China (10.6 percent),Ukraine (10.3 percent),Kazakhstan (9.7 percent) and Turkey (6.8 percent). Overall, trade with CIS countries increased by 21.8 percent, with European Union countries by 30.6 percent. The U.S. share was equal to four percent of overall trade turnover. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. While not quite as high as in recent years, Armenia's economic growth remained strong during the first half of 2008 despite our expectations that the political turmoil of recent months would lead to significantly lower levels of growth. One of the GOAM's key policy challenges remains fighting growing inflationary pressure, which will most probably require further tightening of monetary and fiscal policies, and we continue to believe that the growth of the construction sector is not sustainable in the long run. Many observers predict economic risks over the upcoming winter, with perhaps sharply-increased food and energy prices representing threats to economic stability. The new GOAM that took office in April has announced a new wave of economic reforms - in particular targeting the tax and customs regimes - which if properly implemented would contribute to improving the business environment and spurring of economic growth. YOVANOVITCH