OPPOSITION ASKS EMBASSY TO CONVEY PROPOSED

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000745

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC; NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ASKS EMBASSY TO CONVEY PROPOSED
POLITICAL DEAL TO THE PRESIDENT

Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON REASONS 1.4(B)(D)


1. (C) David Shahnazarian, a close confidant of former
president and current opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrossian
(LTP),called on CDA September 16 to request that the embassy
convey a proposal from LTP to reduce domestic political
tension in Armenia. Shahnazarian said that the LTP camp was
increasingly concerned by behind-the-scenes efforts by
supporters of former President Robert Kocharian to force
President Sargsian to appoint Kocharian as his prime
minister. He added that while LTP and his supporters are not
pleased by Sargsian's administration to this point, they
believed that a return of Kocharian to a governing role would
be "a disaster for us, a disaster for the President, and a
disaster for Armenia." Shahnazarian claimed that Kocharian
and "the Russians" had enlisted the help of various Armenian
oligarchs, politicians, and media to increase pressure on the
President to fire his reformist Prime Minister Tigran
Sargsian (no relation to the President) and replace him with
Kocharian.


2. (C) Given the "common interest" of LTP and President
Sargsian in fending off a political comeback by Kocharian,
Shahnazarian said the LTP camp is willing to forego street
protests and other provocative opposition activities if
President Sargsian releases over the next few weeks the
roughly 75 opposition supporters who remain in jail in the
aftermath of the March 1-2 events. Shahnazarian said the
opposition "has nothing to gain by bringing people into the
streets," but argued that LTP would be forced to do just that
if the oppositionists remained in prison. If the President
failed to take action on the prisoners, he said, there is a
risk that LTP could "lose control" of the movement, thereby
risking further instability. Shahnazarian also pledged that
if the President were to release the prisoners, LTP would
praise the gesture and not portray it as a "political
victory" over Sargsian. He asked that we convey the proposed
deal to the President's office.


3. (C) CDA discussed the LTP proposal in a September 17
meeting with Misha Minasian, the President's senior advisor
(and son-in-law). Minasian listened carefully and pledged to
pass the idea to the President. He cautioned, however, that
President Sargsian would likely be skeptical given that the
message came through Shahnazarian, whom Sargsian does not
regard as a reliable interlocutor. The Charge noted our
understanding that the proposal was the result of a direct
conversation that Shahnazarian had with LTP, and could
therefore be considered an offer from Ter-Petrossian himself.
Minasian suggested that the opposition is weakening in any
event judging by the reduced numbers at LTP's rally on
September 15, but acknowledged at another point that LTP
"still presents a problem" for the President. Although he
did not directly address the oppositon's hypothesis that
Kocharian is trying to elbow his way back to power, he also
made no effort to dispute the idea. CDA pointed out that
President Sargsian had much to gain from releasing the
prisoners with or without a deal from the opposition -- LTP's
apparent willingness to refrain from provocations is only one
more reason to move forward. Minasian responded that he was
confident the President would find a way to release
signficant numbers of the prisoners "over the next 1-2
months."


4. (C) Comment: LTP's offer is another sign that he has
started to recognize that his path back to power has firmly
and finally been blocked. Minasian may well be right in
viewing the proposal as an effort by an increasingly
desperate opposition to salvage a concession from the
President as it becomes less relevant over time. LTP's
implied threat to return to the streets in force later this
fall will not cause as much concern at the Presidency as it
would have several months ago. Nevertheless, if Sargsian has
in fact made the decision to release the prisoners on his own
timetable, the opposition offer could be a reason to
accelerate that process. Separately, we have also flagged, in
recent conversations with numerous government interlocutors,
the issue of political prisoners as the single most important
human rights and democracy priority in our bilateral
relationship. End comment.
PENNINGTON