DASHNAKS RALLY AGAINST CLOSER TURKISH TIES AND TO SHOW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000694

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL AM
SUBJECT: DASHNAKS RALLY AGAINST CLOSER TURKISH TIES AND TO SHOW
SUPPORT FOR THE ARMENIANS OF JAVAKHETI AND KARABAKH

REF: YEREVAN 681

YEREVAN 00000694 001.2 OF 002


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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) During its September 2 rally for "Artsakh Freedom Day,"
(Artsakh is the Armenian term for Nagorno-Karabakh) Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun),the ultranationalist
junior partner in the ruling coalition, previewed its plans to
protest the upcoming historic visit of Turkish President Gul
(reftel),renewed its call for an autonomous Javakh in a future
Georgian "confederation," and repeated a demand that the GOAM
recognize an independent Nagorno-Karabakh in the face of continued
Azerbaijani war-mongering. The mood of the crowd was relatively
unenthusiastic, and many participants were more interested in the
concert that followed the rally. While the Dashnaks are still
members of the government, their representation of only six percent
of the electorate means that while their extreme views on Armenia's
foreign relations have some impact, they are not decisive. END
SUMMARY.

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ARMENIAN - TURKISH RELATIONS
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2. (SBU) Officially dedicated to the 17th anniversary of
Nagorno-Karabakh's declaration of independence from Azerbaijan, the
Dashnaktsutyun rally in the center of Yerevan saw the convergence of
no more than five or six thousand supporters, who heard speeches
mostly about Turkish-Armenian relations and the plight of ethnic
Armenians in neighboring Georgia. The main Dashnak message was that
Turkish-Armenian relations should not be normalized until Ankara
recognizes the 1915 massacres and forced deportations of Armenians
in the Ottoman Empire as genocide. Dashnak leaders reaffirmed their
plans to organize street protests--"beginning from Zvartnots
Airport"--against Turkish President Gul's expected arrival in
Yerevan for the September 6 World Cup qualifying match between
Armenia and Turkey. Most speakers mentioned that the protests would
be "peaceful and civilized," while urging supporters not to cause or
yield to any "provocations." During a post-rally conversation with
Poloffs, Dashnak MP Lilit Galstian assured that although there would
be a demonstration at the stadium, it would only be sports-related
to support the Armenian team rather than protest against Turkey.
She also ruled out the possibility of uncontrolled clashes, noting
that few Turkish fans are expected at the match.


3. (U) At a press conference on September 4, Dashnak spokesman Armen
Rustamian announced the party's specific protest plans, starting
from President Gul's arrival at the airport. Before the beginning of
the football match, they plan to place flowers and light torches at
the Genocide memorial, which is within view of the stadium. During
the match, according to Rustamian, Dashnak supporters will yell
"patriotic slogans" calling for genocide recognition. He was eager
to point out that they would not aim these the actions at President
Gul but at "Turkey's positions." Rustamian also warned that the
party would regard any other forms of protest as the actions of
provocateurs and would work to stop them.


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AUTONOMY FOR ARMENIANS OF JAVAKH
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4. (SBU) The head of the Dashnaktsutyun parliamentary faction, Vahan
Hovannisian, spent much of his speech making a case for Georgia's
transformation into a "confederation" in which the
Armenian-populated Javakheti region would have a high degree of
autonomy. Hovannisian claimed that giving Javakheti the status of
an autonomous region would discourage other ethnic minorities from
seceding from a fractious Georgia. He also claimed that Georgia has
continued to pressure Armenians in Javakheti, for instance, by
shutting down newspapers and radio stations and not registering
NGOs. Several times during his speech he and rally participants
chanted, "Javakh! We are with you!"

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Recognize Independent KARABAKH
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5. (SBU) On Karabakh, the Dashnaks called on Azerbaijan to sign a
document with Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh "Republic" (NKR) to
prevent the possibility of using military force to settle the
conflict. Referring to Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, speakers
pointed to the international community's double standards regarding
different territorial and ethnic disputes. Dashnaktsutyun also
urged the Armenian authorities to recognize the NKR officially if

YEREVAN 00000694 002.2 OF 002


Azerbaijan were to continue its military threats.

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UNENTHUSIASTIC SUPPORT
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6. (SBU) Most of participants in the rally were from outside of
Yerevan, and many of them, in interviews with Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, insisted that they did not come voluntarily.
Participants stood in groups talking amongst themselves rather than
listening to the speakers. Mostly a young crowd, the participants
seemed to be eager for the speeches to end so that the rock concert
that was to follow could begin.

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COMMENT
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7. (SBU) While the Dashnaks attempted to rally their supporters
against improved ties with Turkey and for the Armenians of Javakh
and Karabakh, it appeared that relatively few were really listening.
With the support of only six percent of the population (based on
the last presidential election),the Dashnaks represent the extreme
fringe of the Armenian political debate that often puts nationalism
ahead of pragmatism and prosperity. Given their continued
participation in the governing coalition and, more importantly,
their deep ties to the Diaspora, Dashnak views are not
inconsequential. In the current political environment, however,
they are also not decisive.

PENNINGTON