CLOCK RUNS OUT ON ARMENIA EXIT POLL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000068 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC; NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM KPAO OSCE AM SUBJECT: CLOCK RUNS OUT ON ARMENIA EXIT POLL REF: A. YEREVAN 0016 ¶B. YEREVAN 003 ¶C. 07 YEREVAN 1467 ¶D. 07 YEREVAN 1439 Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.4 B/D. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Following a weeks-long effort to come to closure with the GOAM on modalities to carry out a USAID-funded exit poll for Armenia's upcoming presidential election, CDA and Presidential Chief of staff Armen Gevorkian agreed in a January 17 meeting to abandon the idea. Despite strong support for the poll from PM Sargsian, GOAM concerns about the poll's methodology, and especially the venue for tabulating the results, ultimately proved insurmountable for IRI, which would have commissioned the poll, and Gallup, which would have carried it out. We believe that, given more time, a deal could have been worked out to satisfy all parties. However, a tight timetable for necessary training and preparation for the poll forced a decision before all options were exhausted. Last-minute inflexibility from IRI concerning what we viewed as a reasonable solution proposed by the PM gave an unexpected victory to the Presidency, which was cool to the idea of an exit poll from the start. Although the IRI poll will not take place, our proposal appears to have raised interest in exit polls and opened the door for other polling firms to carry out exit polls in Armenia, perhaps even in the February election. End summary. -------------- IRI/GALLUP UNABLE TO MEET GOAM CONCERNS -------------- ¶2. (C) Post had been engaged for months in intensive discussions with the Prime Ministry and Presidency concerning the possibility of a first-ever exit poll, to be commissioned by IRI, for the February 19 presidential election (see reftels). As reported in Ref A, the final major sticking point was the GOAM concern, expressed to us by PM Sargsian, that data collection and tabulation of the poll results at Gallup's Baltic Surveys Ltd. headquarters in Vilnius -- rather than in Armenia -- would reduce the transparency of the polling process and could create political problems for the authorities. The PM had proposed that an aditional server be established in Yerevan to receive the polling data simultaneously with the Gallup center in Vilnius. Although ;Gallup confirmed to us that such an arrangement was technically possible, IRI deemed that option unacceptable, citing concerns that such an arrangement would be at odds with the organization's practices in other countries. ¶3. (C) In a last-ditch effort to save the exit poll, we had offered (with IRI concurrence) to fund travel to Vilnius for one representative of each of the nine candidates (as well as one from the office of the President) on election day. The representatives could have seen the data at the center and verified that it was consistent with the announced results of the poll. In a January 17 meeting on other issues, Presidential Chief of Staff Gevorkian, Presidential Advisor Vigen Sargsian, and the Prime Minister's staff aide Levon Mirtirosyan informed CDA and Pol/Econ Chief that they could not accept our offer, arguing that it was "not practical" and could be "misperceived" by voters. (COMMENT: This idea of voter "misperception" tracks with our previous discussions on this issue, in which the GOAM was clearly uncomfortable with the political optics of having the results of the exit poll emanating from computers in Lithuania rather than in Armenia. END COMMENT.) -------------- THE CLOCK RUNS OUT -------------- ¶4. (C) Gevorkian and Sargsian said they were willing to continue discussions to iron out our differences and allow the poll to go forward. CDA responded that, unfortunately, time had essentially run out, as Gallup was already behind in the training and preparations that would need to take place in order to ensure a credible poll. He agreed with Gevorkian that the time had come to make a decision on the exit poll. Given that we did not have an obvious way forward to reach a quick agreement, CDA agreed with the President's men that it was time to abandon the idea. He informed Gevorkian that the YEREVAN 00000068 002 OF 002 embassy would issue a press release announcing that the poll had been canceled, but pledged that the announcement would be made in such a way as not to blame the authorities for the fact that the poll would not take place. -------------- -------------- EXIT POLLS NOW PART OF ARMENIAN POLITICAL DISCUSSION -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Despite our failure to reach agreement with the GOAM on the modalities of the IRI poll, the public debate that has surrounded our proposal for the past month has brought the idea of exit polling into the Armenian political debate. We understand that Armenian public television has been in discussion with a British polling firm about organizing an exit poll for February, and we have heard reports that other organizations may be gearing up for their own exit polls. While the credibility of these polls may be dubious, it is clear that this debate has opened the door for reputable organizations to carry out exit polls in future elections. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) As we have reported, the President, unlike the Prime Minister, has been uncomfortable with the exit poll from the beginning. Nevertheless, we believe the President's surrogates, with the strong encouragement of the Prime Minister's office, made a good-faith effort to find a way to have the poll go forward. In the end, it was IRI that rebuffed what we viewed as a reasonable proposal, and one that Gallup/Baltic Surveys Ltd. felt was workable. It looked to us that the Prime Minister had asserted himself strongly, behind closed doors, to insist that the exit poll take place. It is unfortunate that IRI's eleventh-hour inflexibility left us and the PM twisting in the wind, while handing the President an unexpected victory after he had already conceded on this point. We would not be surprised to find PM Sargsian, should he become Presdident, a less than avid supporter of future IRI programs in Armenia. ¶7. (C) COMMENT (Continued): Interestingly, the most vociferous local objections to the exit poll came not from the GOAM, but from opposition parties. Several opposition presidential candidates claimed that exit polls carried out by foreign organizations would inevitably be manipulated. We suspect the opposition parties' arguments were based on the likelihood that the exit poll would have only confirmed what many expect to happen on election day -- a comfortable victory for PM Sargsian. PENNINGTON