PRESIDENT SARGSIAN INVITES PRESIDENT GUL TO YEREVAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000536


EUR FOR A/S FRIED, DAS BRYZA, EUR/CARC
NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM TU
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT SARGSIAN INVITES PRESIDENT GUL TO YEREVAN

Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.5(B)(D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) President Serzh Sargsian announced during an official
visit to Moscow on June 23 that he was considering inviting
Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan for the September 6
World Cup soccer qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia.
FM Nalbandian confirmed late on June 27 that an official
invitation along these lines has now been sent to Ankara
through the Armenian embassy in Tbilisi. A presidential
advisor urged the US to press Ankara to respond positively to
the invitation. The President's comments in Moscow also
included a reference to the GOT-proposed historical
commission to examine the events of 1915, which Sargsian said
could be acceptable to the GOAM if the Turks first agree to
open the border and establish diplomatic relations. Although
the invitation to Gul has been widely praised across the
political spectrum, the President has come under heavy fire
for appearing to accept the historical commission, which many
here view as casting doubt on the "fact" of the Armenian
genocide. In the face of such criticism, FM Nalbandian
publicly asserted on June 27 that "the genocide issue remains
on our agenda." The invitation to President Gul is a
dramatic and welcome step toward breaking the deadlock in
Armenia's relationship with Turkey. The challenge will now
be for Armenian officials to avoid public comments -- like
Nalbandian's -- that could undermine that effort. End
summary.

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CAUTIOUS SERZH FINALLY THINKS BIG
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2. (C) In a bold, positive step toward possible
reconciliation with Turkey, President Serzh Sargsian approved
late on June 27 an official invitation to Turkish President
Abdullah Gul to come to Yerevan to attend the Armenia-Turkey
World Cup soccer qualifying match on September 6. The
invitation has been sent through the Armenian embassy in
Tbilisi. A senior presidential advisor who previewed the
move to CDA on June 22 said the invitation was aimed at
"changing the dynamic between the two countries in a decisive
way." The advisor insisted that Sargsian is "absolutely
sincere" in his desire to move forward with Turkey, a view
echoed later in the week by FM Nalbandian in a meeting with
visiting DAS Matthew Bryza and the Minsk Group co-chairs.


3. (C) The President's office initially told us that an op-ed
under Sargsian's name calling for a "fresh start" with Turkey
would be published in a major international newspaper in
order to reinforce his overture to Gul -- the op-ed has yet
to materialize, but we are told it is in the works. We heard
from one contact with close ties in the Presidency that the
op-ed was essentially "hijacked" by erstwhile opposition
leader and current coalition partner Artur Baghdassarian, who
claimed he would place the piece through his "contacts in the
Associated Press." (Comment: Incredible as this story may
seem, it fits with a larger pattern of disarray we have noted
in the President's operation during the early months of his
tenure. The haphazard way in which news of the Gul
invitation spilled out in Moscow is further evidence of
disorganization and poor staff coordination at the
Presidency. End Comment.)

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COMMENT ON HISTORICAL COMMISSION DRAWS FIRE
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3. (C) Sargsian announced his intention to invite Gul during
a June 23 meeting with an Armenian diaspora group that was
part of his official visit to Moscow. His comments were
picked up by the Armenian news service MediaMax the following
day. In addition to revealing his "soccer diplomacy" plan,
the President also remarked that Armenia could accept the
GOT-proposed historical commission to examine the events of
1915 provided that the Turks first agreed to open the border
and establish diplomatic relations. (Comment: This was the
first time an Armenian leader had -- in principle, at least
-- acknowledged that Armenia could accept a historic
commission. Former President Kocharian had maintained that
discussion of historical events must be part of a broader,
intergovernmental commission that would tackle all bilateral
issues between Armenia and Turkey. End comment.)


4. (C) The reference to the historical commission drew
immediate fire, both from the opposition and from the
Dashnaktsutyun, a partner in the governing coalition. A
spokesman for former president and current opposition leader
Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) claimed that by leaving open the
possibility of Armenia's participation in a historical
commission, Sargsian had become "the first leader in
Armenia's history to call the genocide into question."
Dashnak luminary Giro Manoyan remarked that Sargsian "had
obviously been given bad advice," and argued that the
President's statement contradicted former President
Kocharian's policy as well as Armenia's National Security
Strategy. Manoyan described the view expressed by Sargsian
as "unacceptable."

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NALBANDIAN RESPONDS WITH UNHELPFUL COMMENTS
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5. (C) Perhaps in response to such criticism, in a June 27
press conference with the visiting Swiss Foreign Minister
Foreign Minister Nalbandian asserted that "the genocide issue
remains on our agenda." Most Armenian media outlets
interpreted the remark as a signal that the GOAM would
continue to pursue international recognition of the genocide.
(Comment: Armenia has always walked a fine policy line on
this issue. Although genocide recognition has always been a
part of official policy, former FM Oskanian told us
repeatedly that Armenia viewed the genocide reolution in the
US Congress as a US internal political matter. End comment.)

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Sargsian's proposal for a Gul visit to Yerevan is a
bold and welcome step from a new president whose brief tenure
has until now been characterized by extreme caution.
Although the President and his staff fumbled the initative by
unnecessarily raising the commission question, thereby
opening themselves to domestic criticism, the move has the
potential to provide significfant new momentum to Armenia's
relations with Turkey and is worthy of our strong support.
The challenge will be to keep senior GOAM officials focused
on the groundbreaking nature of Sargsian's invitation and to
refrain from comments that could jeopardize a positive
response from the Turkish side -- as Nalbandian's comments
may have -- or risk provoking unhelpful domestic political
wrangling that could throw the effort off-track.

PENNINGTON