UNSANTIONED LTP RALLY PROCEEDS PEACEFULLY, DRAWS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000515 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S KRAMER AND DRL, AND DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KJUS AM SUBJECT: UNSANTIONED LTP RALLY PROCEEDS PEACEFULLY, DRAWS 20,000 REF: YEREVAN 511 YEREVAN 00000515 001.2 OF 004 (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In defiance of the authorities who rejected his applications to hold a large opposition rally, former President Levon Ter-Petrosian (LTP) nonetheless drew approximately 20,000 supporters on June 20 in his first rally appearance since the fatal March 1-2 clampdown. The rally, which proceeded peacefully after riot and regular police yielded the site to protesters, took place after municipal authorities had rejected 44 prior applications by pro-LTP activists to hold similar events. During the four-hour-long event, which was interrupted by electricity outages, LTP and his lieutenants called for the arrest of former President Kocharian and his trial at The Hague, declared Kocharian should pay an indemnity of USD one million to the families of all ten victims, and demanded the release of all political prisoners before LTP would enter into dialogue with the current authorities. LTP reiterated his demand of snap parliamentary and presidential elections to resolve the crisis, and announced July 4 as the next rally date. END SUMMARY. -------------- BANNED, THEN ALLOWED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Since the March 21 lifting of the State of Emergency (SOE),various LTP-aligned opposition groups -- in compliance with the new rally law passed in a single day late in the SOE had submitted 44 applications to hold a rally, all of which were denied. In early June, organizers pledged to hold a rally at Opera Square (aka Freedom Square) on June 20, regardless of whether or not they would receive permission. Authorities again denied permission for the rally venue, ostensibly due to a scheduling conflict with a planned children's festival being held there. ¶3. (SBU) Organizers then proposed the Matenadaran, an ancient manuscripts depositary located in downtown Yerevan, where LTP used to work, and where he rose to fame as a key speaker during anti-Soviet, pro-Karabakh protests in the late 1980s. Authorities refused this venue as well, saying that the police and Armenia's National Security Service (former KGB) had provided Yerevan's municipality "reliable information" about the potential for disorders connected to the event. Instead, city authorities verbally suggested the opposition should gather near the capital's largest football stadium, just beyond the city center. The opposition, however, rejected that offer as unreasonable and, despite the warnings, announced that the rally would take place at the Matenadaran on June 20. The day before the rally, Armenia's newly appointed deputy police chief publicly warned residents that police would act forcefully to prevent an unlawful gathering. ¶4. (SBU) During the day, a heavy police presence could be seen being mounted downtown. Police with riot shields, batons, and riot clothing stood shoulder-to-shoulder in surrounding Freedom Square, which had been completely overtaken by various police vehicles, fire-fighting equipment, and a water cannon. (COMMENT: There was no sign of the children's event that supposedly precluded the staging of the rally. END COMMENT.) Throughout the day on June 20, opposition activists claimed that mini-buses and buses traveling to Yerevan from the regions and Yerevan's suburbs were not operating, under instructions by the authorities, thus preventing people outside Yerevan from attending the rally. Embassy staff observed police presence on many roads leading into Yerevan, with at least one checkpoint stopping and searching vehicles. -------------- RIOT POLICE MELT AWAY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) As the 6:00 pm start time for the rally approached, significant numbers of people began making their way to the Matenadaran. Shortly before 6:00 pm, police were visibly and gradually withdrawn from the area, allowing participants to stream into the venue. (NOTE: Police even used bullhorns to tell arriving protesters to proceed to the rally site so as YEREVAN 00000515 002.2 OF 004 not to hinder car traffic below the Matenadaran. Emboffs estimate that as many 200 riot police were withdrawn over thirty minutes, leaving the site entirely devoid of a police presence. END NOTE.) ¶6. (SBU) The withdrawal of riot police was apparently the result of last-minute negotiations between opposition representatives and Yerevan's Deputy Chief of Police Aleksandr Afian. Speaking to RFE/RL, Afian justified his decision by saying that demonstrators had blocked street traffic, "violating the rights of other individuals," after which he said a decision was made to allow people to proceed up towards the Matenadaran. The negotiations lasted for about two hours, while the opposition was trying to bring speakers and microphones up to the podium. According to LTP aide Levon Zurabian, who conducted the negotiations with the police on behalf of the opposition, the authorities agreed to allow the equipment up, only if the opposition promised in return to finish the rally at 10pm and not conduct a march. The promise was kept. -------------- MEDIA COMMENTARY ON RALLY NEGOTIATIONS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Opposition newspapers that reported on the rally the following day highlighted its peaceful nature and expressed skepticism about the information that had prompted law enforcement bodies to recommend that the rally not be authorized. The articles argued that those who claimed to have such information, which turned out to be false, should be held accountable. Opposition leaders claimed that the permit denial was meant to reduce the number of participants. While it didn't prevent a significant turnout, it might have reduced the numbers somewhat; while Aram Sargsian, the leader of the opposition Republic party, estimated the number of rally participants at some 50,000, and LTP implausibly claimed a crowd of 200,000. Yerevan police estimated 10,000. Embassy estimates put the crowd at about 20,000. -------------- LTP ON PACE, ELECTION OUTCOME, DETAINEES -------------- ¶8. (SBU) LTP used his speech to highlight the upcoming discussion of Armenia's political crisis by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE),arguing that the authorities had failed to fulfill the requirements placed on GOAM officials by PACE resolution 1609 (reftel). The rally took place three days before the start of the expected PACE session to discuss Armenia. On June 19, PACE had issued a press release declaring an urgent debate was necessary to discuss Armenia. The finding was a result of a mission earlier in the week by PACE co-rapporteurs who had met with the authorities, the opposition and others to assess the post-election environment. ¶9. (SBU) According to LTP, the purpose of the rally was to show the international community and the authorities that despite assessments given to the February 19 Armenian presidential election, the Armenian public does not recognize Serzh Sargsian as Armenia's president. Secondly, the opposition wants to show to European bureaucrats (in the Council of Europe, the European Union and the OSCE) that Armenians "are not third-class people, as they are accustomed to believe." LTP charged that Armenia's respectable image had been damaged in the eyes of the international community, due to the actions of the current authorities. ¶10. (SBU) Referring to the section of resolution 1609 that mentions the need to release political detainees, LTP sarcastically noted that Armenian authorities have been voicing the following formula: "We have no political detainees in Armenia, since we have no law on political detainees ..." LTP mentioned that it's the same as saying "since we have no law on birds, there are no birds in Armenia." According to him, the same absurd formula was offered by Robert Kocharian in regard to LTP's house arrest. "How can there be a house arrest in Armenia if we have no law on house arrest?" - Kocharian had reportedly stated. ¶11. (SBU) LTP offered the following statistics on the prosecution of oppositionists since the elections: 5,000 individuals have been summoned by or taken to the police; 500 have been detained; 130 arrested; and 86 are still in jail. None of them have been charged for carrying or using weapons on March 1, robbing shops or burning cars. This, according YEREVAN 00000515 003.2 OF 004 to LTP, proved that the robbery and arsons were orchestrated by the authorities, not by the opposition activists who supported his presidential bid. -------------- VICTIMS OF MARCH 1 CLASHES -------------- ¶12. (SBU) LTP suggested that the authorities give the posthumous title of "National Hero" to all who died on March ¶1. He also called on the authorities to pay at least USD one million to the families of each victim, to be paid not by the state budget but by Kocharian himself. He also reminded supporters of the allegations in the media that the opposition rally was dispersed on March 1 by forces that included riot police dispatched to Yerevan from Nagorno-Karabakh. "If these allegations prove correct, then the Nagorno-Karabakh President should be announced persona non grata in Armenia, and we will eventually make sure that former Armenian President Robert Kocharian appears at the Hague Tribunal," LTP declared. The normally self-effacing LTP confidant David Shahnazarian, a former Interior Minister under LTP, also spoke at the rally, urging the arrest of Kocharian, former Ministry of Defense Mikhail Harutiunian (who dispatched army troops into Yerevan after the SOE was declared),and former head of the State Protection Service (SPS) Grisha Sargsian, who is rumored to have been behind the violent dispersal of Freedom Square on March 1. ¶13. (SBU) Referring in his speech to the recently formed ad-hoc parliamentary committee that is to look into the March 1-2 clashes, LTP challenged its partiality and said that it would have no credibility with society. In response to the recent parliamentary invitation he had received inviting him to name a non-voting representative to the committee, LTP sarcastically and tastelessly -- declared he would send a citizen by the name of "Gevorik" who is apparently mentally handicapped and often appears at the headquarters of LTP's old Armenian National Movement political party headquarters to beg for money in exchange for opening doors. -------------- POSSIBLE DIALOGUE -------------- ¶14. (SBU) LTP declared that if the authorities released all political detainees immediately, he would personally urge PACE to refrain from taking sanctions against Armenia. He also reaffirmed the determination of the opposition to engage in a dialogue with the GOAM once they release all political detainees. The dialogue, however, can be only about new presidential and parliamentary elections, which are, according to LTP, the only way out of the political crisis. "If the authorities wished to ease the tension in the society, they would have done it by now. Instead, they simply reshuffled government officials to various positions," LTP claimed. ¶15. (SBU) LTP also indicated that if the authorities conducted real reforms, arrested the real criminals of March 1, eliminated the shadow economy and government-protected monopolies, and appointed professional and trustworthy people to high-ranking positions, the opposition would welcome all those steps. LTP was intentionally vague on future plans, simply asking his supporters to trust the movement he is currently leading, and him personally. He asked participants to go home in peace and be sure that he'll never abandon the current struggle. He also announced the next rally date for the evening of Friday, July 4. The rally ended in the dark, at 10:00 pm local time. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Both the authorities and the opposition are to be given credit for the rally taking place as peacefully as it did, in spite of the tense cat-and-mouse game they played leading up to it. That said, the extreme show of force in Freedom Square, and LTP's ratcheting up of rhetoric suggest that both camps hav uncompromising red lines that do not bode well for dialogue or compromise. For all of his theatrics, in the end LTP had very little new to say to his supporters. Without a clear strategy for making his movement more relevant to events on the ground, it is unclear how long the opposition will keep the attention of ordinary Armenians disenchanted with the authorities. The hard core will remain YEREVAN 00000515 004.2 OF 004 loyal to LTP, but simple repetition of the same well-worn lines may not be enough to keep the less committed from drifting away. END COMMENT. PENNINGTON