PRESIDENCY PROVIDES OFFICIAL VERSION OF YEREVAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000190 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AM SUBJECT: PRESIDENCY PROVIDES OFFICIAL VERSION OF YEREVAN RIOTS YEREVAN 00000190 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: CDA JOSEPH PENNINGTON, REASONS 1.5(B,D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In briefings for selected diplomats including CDA during and immediately following the violent events in Yerevan on March 1-2, Presidential Chief of Staff Armen Gevorkian provided the official version of events. Gevorkian asserted that "all political responsibility" for the violence rests with opposition leader and former president Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP). He claimed that the authorities "never made a political decision" to clear Freedom Square of demonstrators. The order to disperse the demonstrators, he said, was given by the Chief of Police after those on the square reacted violently to a police request to search the area for weapons. Gevorkian alleged that most of those killed in the ensuing riots -- the official figure stands at 8, but most believe it was significantly higher -- died as a result of gunfire from the crowd. He said that President Kocharian declared the State of Emergency (SOE) as a "last resort," and claimed that the provisions of the SOE decree were "as limited as possible" under the circumstances. Gevorkain denied that LTP is under house arrest. He foreshadowed significant numbers of arrests of opposition figures in coming days, but promised all prosecutions would be done "transparently, according to European standards." Gevorkian did not rule out the possibility that LTP could be arrested and prosecuted. Some of Gevorkian's statements strained credulity, and most diplomats present left the briefings decidedly unconvinced. End summary. -------------- -------------- CLEARING FREEDOM SQUARE "NOT A POLITICAL DECISION" -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) As riots raged in downtown Yerevan at 1930 on the evening of March 1, Presidential Chief of Staff Armen Gevorkian convoked CDA and senior Yerevan representatives of the European Commission, Council of Europe, OSCE, and the OSCE/ODIHR Observer Mission to present the official view of events that had triggered a situation that was rapidly spiraling out of control. Gevorkian asserted that neither President Kocharian nor any other senior GOAM official had made a "political decision" to clear protesters from Freedom Square. The President had received information the previous evening from the head of the Armenian police that weapons had been brought to the demonstrators, thus creating a dangerous situation that needed to be addressed. The police chief reportedly asked for and received Kocharian's approval for a group of unarmed police to approach the demonstrators in the early morning of March 1 to request their cooperation in conducting a search for weapons. In Gevorkain's account, the police were met with "an ugly reaction" that included being pelted by demonstrators with metal objects that they had been storing in their tents for just this purpose. ¶3. (C) According to Gevorkian, the unarmed police retreated from the square, but not before six of them had been injured by demonstrators. At that point, Gevorkian said, the Police Chief -- without consulting Kocharian -- ordered a significantly larger group of police, this time armed with rubber truncheons and protected by shields and helmets, to return to the square and disperse the demonstrators. The number of demonstrators on the square at that hour (just after 0700) was estimated at around 1,000. Gevorkian asserted that this larger number of police returned to the square and cleared the demonstrators in a matter of minutes. LTP was apprehended at that time, and escorted by police to his home. Gevorkian further claimed that in a subsequent search of the square and adjacent areas, the police found that their initial suspicions had been justified by the discovery of weapons -- firearms, metal bars, grenades -- that had been hidden by the protesters. He flatly denied that either tear gas or cattle prods had been used by police, claims that were made by protesters in the square at the time and supported to some extent by non-participant eyewitnesses. -------------- --- "SEVERAL OPTIONS WERE OFFERED" TO DEFUSE TENSION -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Gevorkian also defended security forces' handling of the demonstrations as they increased in number and turned violent during the afternoon of March 1. He claimed that the YEREVAN 00000190 002.2 OF 003 Government had offered LTP -- through several mediation channels -- options for moving the demonstrations to a location outside the city center and "putting them back on a legal path." Gevorkian said the President offered the demonstrators use of Dinamo Stadium as a venue for continuing the protests. LTP supporters refused. He insisted that the demonstraters countered with a request to use the area in front of the main train station as a demonstration site. President Kocharian agreed to this arrangement, Gevorkian said, but LTP then back out of the deal. (Comment: We know from our own involvement in these discussions that there is some truth to this part of Gevorkian's account. In fact, we conveyed the stadium offer to the LTP camp, which did not view it favorably. Discussions concerning the square near the train station, however, are less clear-cut than Gevorkian suggests. End comment.) ¶5. (C) In light of the very dangerous situation that had developed by evening, Gevorkian said, President Kocharian had asked that a decree be drafted ordering a State of Emergency (SOE). He stressed that the President had still not signed the decree (it was by now 2100),and that there was still room for negotiation. He encouraged the diplomats in the meeting to use "whatever contacts you have with the opposition" to persuade the protesters to return to their homes before it was too late. The SOE, he emphasized, was viewed by Kocharian as the very last resort. (Comment: Shortly after the meeting broke up -- around 2115 -- it became clear that Gevorkian was being disingenuous on this point. By the time CDA reached the Embassy and we reached out to our opposition contacts, the bullets were already flying. There was, in fact, no time left for discussion. End comment.) -------------- LTP BEARS "ALL POLITICAL RESPONSIBILITY" -------------- ¶6. (C) Gevorkian reconvened a meeting with senior diplomats -- this time from all OSCE member states -- on the morning of March 2, several hours after the riots had been brought under control. Gevorkian opened the meeting by stressing that LTP bears "full political responsibility" for the rioting, including the 8 confirmed deaths. (Comment: Diplomats were under the impression that Presidnet Kocharian himself would chair the meeting, but he had apparently left for a ski trip at the nearby resort of Tsakhkadzor earlier that morning. End comment.) Gevorkian asserted that a significant number of the demonstrators were carrying firearms, and that the deadly violence was triggered when protesters shot their way through a line of unarmed riot police near the Russian embassy. He added that grenades had also been thrown by demonstrators at security forces. (Comment: This is at odds with what we have heard from other sources, including from those who were in the crowd. Although we cannot exclude the possibility that some people among the protesters were carrying firearms, that is not something we have heard from other witnesses. End comment.) -------------- POSSIBLE PROSECUTION OF LTP -------------- ¶7. (C) Gevorkian said the crowd began to disperse at about 0300 on March 2, when they were informed that army units were approaching. A statement from LTP was read out over a loudspeaker urging his supporters to go home, and most of the crowd complied. The way the demonstration ended, Gevorkian argued "shows that Levon Ter-Petrossian could have stopped the potests at any time during the day, but he had elected not to do so. Gevorkian said that LTP was "personally and directly involved" with the organizers of the protests, and was "fully in control of every move." He acknowledged, however, that at a certain point neither LTP nor his lieutenants on the ground could control the demonstrators. Gevorkian said prosecutors, police, and the National Security Service are now assembling evidence to prosecute the instigators of the events, a task that will be made easier by the fact that the security services have video footage of the events. He pledged that nobody will be detained without sufficient grounds, and that all legal processes will be conducted transparently and in accordance with Western standards. ¶8. (C) In a question concerning the possible arrest and prosecution of LTP, Gevorkian noted that he had been clear to YEREVAN 00000190 003.2 OF 003 make the distinction between LTP's "political responsibility" for the violence and his possible legal responsibility. He was clear, however, that the authorities have not ruled out mounting a case against the former President. "If the evidence against him accumulates, then he will not be granted immunity," Gevorkian said. "He will be treated like every other Armenian citizen." -------------- SOE "AS LIMITED AS POSSIBLE" -------------- ¶9. (C) Gevorkian asserted that the State of Emergency decree is intended to be "as limited as possible," both geographically (Yerevan only) and procedurally (no curfew) so as to avoid an undue impact on the daily lives of ordinary Armenians. Kocharian believes the 20-day period specified in the SOE will be "sufficient to find those responsible and to restore order." Asked about a possible dialogue with the opposition, Gevorkian replied that dialogue with LTP "is not possible after 8 people have been killed" as a result of his actions. Gevorkian did not rule out discussions with LTP supporters who did not take part in the riots, but claimed that "most of the opposition is already involved in fruitful discussions with us." (Comment: Gevorkian was probably referring to opposition presidential candidate Artur Baghdassarian, who cut a deal with PM Sargsian on February 29 in which he agreed to support the government and drop his objections to alleged election fraud. End comment.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Gevorkian's claim that "no political decision" was made to clear demonstrators from the square was not viewed as credible by most diplomats present at the meeting, one of whom had personally witnessed massive numbers of riot police on the square by 0720, just 20 minutes after police had allegedly approached the demonstrators for the first time. At the very least, security forces were well aware that their initial approach and proposed weapons search would not be well received, and were fully prepared to clear the square by force in that eventuality. That decision proved to be a disastrous tactical miscalculation that opened to the door to the violence that ensued over the course of the next 24 hours. There is plenty of blame to go around for the tragic outcome, including for reckless and irresponsible behavior by some of the most rabid LTP supporters. But the most significant factor was the overconfidence of authorities, who thought they could force demonstrators from Freedom Square without serious consequences. ¶11. (C) Geovrkian's comments and tone suggested that the net will be cast wide in identifying culprits from the opposition. The authorities continue to view the LTP-led opposition as a top-down phenomenon, and seem to believe that jailing its most prominent leaders -- up to and including LTP himself -- will solve their problem. They have so far failed to recognize that repressive measures alone only push more Armenians into the LTP camp -- not because they are necessarily fans of the former president, but because they feel they have nowhere else to go. PENNINGTON