ARMENIAN'S WAIT-AND-SEE SUPPORT OF KOSOVO

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000159 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, KOSOVO MONITORING GROUP E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS UN UNMIK GG RU SR YI AM SUBJECT: ARMENIAN'S WAIT-AND-SEE SUPPORT OF KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE REF: A. SECSTATE 16319 ¶B. SECSTATE 14840 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- ARMENIA TO EVENTUALLY RECOGNIZE KOSOVO -------------- ¶1. (C) CDA delivered Ref A demarche to FM Oskanian February ¶21. We had earlier telegraphed the main substance, while awaiting the chance to see the FM during the hectic Armenian election period. CDA emphasized US view that Kosovo was a unique case and that its declaration of independence did not constitute a precedent for other conflicts. Oskanian largely agreed, including that Kosovo truly constituted a unique case that should not be viewed as a precedent. He asked that the US remain flexible on other self-determination struggles around the world, and not view Kosovo as a case where "history ends" (on such struggles). If Washington shared this understanding, then Armenia was "100 percent in line" with US thinking on Kosovo. Oskanian then stressed that if the ethnic Armenians in adjoining Nagorno-Karabakh were ever to declare their independence, or alternatively refrain from doing so, neither decision would be "because of Kosovo." ¶2. (C) Oskanian asserted that the GOAM will "one day" recognize Kosovo, but could not commit to a timeline, saying "we will not rush" into doing so. Oskanian opined that Kosovo "deserved" its independence, and that Armenia supported it. Off the record, Oskanian confided that the GOAM was constrained from recognizing Kosovo right away, explaining that Armenians would wonder why the GOAM publicly declared Kosovo recognition and remained silent on Nagorno-Karabakh. -------------- -------------- DOUBTS RUSSIAN RECOGNITION OF GEORGIAN SEPARATISTS -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) CDA also delivered Ref B demarche urging Armenia to deter Russia from using Kosovo as a precedent to recognize Abkhazia. Oskanian said the GOAM had in the past privately shared its views on the subject with Russia, but expressed doubt that the latter would exploit the situation to recognize Abkhazia. He pledged, however, to pass US concerns to President Kocharian before the president departed for an informal CIS heads of state meeting in Moscow on February 22. Oskanian added that Armenia has repeatedly gone on the record with GOAM support of Georgia's territorial integrity. PENNINGTON