MFA, PRESIDENCY RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT USG ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000156 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM SUBJECT: MFA, PRESIDENCY RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT USG ELECTION STATEMENT REF: YEREVAN 150 Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 b,d. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In back-to-back meetings on February 21, and as a major opposition protest was getting underway just blocks away, Foreign Minister Oskanian and Presidential Chief of Staff Armen Gevorkian expressed to the Charge their concerns about the Department's planned statement on Armenia's February 19 presidential election, and urged it not reflect any "double standards." Visibly anxious about what they perceive as a mildly negative characterization of the Department's initial press guidance which has begun to surface in media reports here, and firmly convinced that Armenia's election was better than the recent presidential poll in neighboring Georgia, both officials urged balance in the planned statement. They warned that the opposition could use a critical statement to "create problems in people's perception" of the post-election situation. They also emphasized that a balanced statement would add momentum to the promising bilateral ties established during Prime Minister Sargsian's fall 2007 visit to Washington. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- NO DOUBLE STANDARDS BETWEEN GEORGIA AND ARMENIA, PLEASE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) As ex-President and current second-place finisher in Armenia's February 19 presidential election Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) was launching his second protest rally in as many days at nearby Freedom Square, Foreign Minister Oskanian and Presidential Chief of Staff Armen Gevorkian used back-to-back meetings to express GOAM concerns about a possible USG public statement characterizing the conduct of Tuesday's election. Both were convinced that ARMENIA had conducted a relatively better election than Georgia had in early January, and said they had studied the language the Department had used after that election. Gevorkian dourly declared that ARMENIA "did not want to be disappointed" by any double standards that would give his country the short end of the stick. ¶3. (C) Both were visibly anxious about the recent appearance of media reports citing Department press guidance which they alleged highlighted the negative aspects of the election. ;Oskanian said the GOAM would be "concerned" if the final USG statement contained language citing actual percentages of precincts where vote counting was observed by OSCE/ODIHR observers to be "bad" or "very bad." He solemnly declared that such a statement will create "problems in people's perception" of the post-election situation in the country. Gevorkian said the GOAM does not want "opposition protesters" to be "emboldened" by a USG statement. -------------- -------------- PRESIDENT ASKS FOR DELAY IN STATEMENT DURING RECOUNT -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Sharing the contents of his phone conversation with President Kocharian earlier in the morning, Oskanian said the President wanted the Charge to know that investigations into all complaints that have been filed about vote-count irregularities are already underway. Kocharian reportedly asked the statement be put off while the complaints are being investigated and disputed votes re-counted. Oskanian stressed that President Kocharian was "firm" that all disputed ballot boxes be re-opened and re-counted, and urged the USG to be "convinced that what it is saying" is correct. Gevorkian and presidential aide Vigen Sargsian confirmed that vote recounts were already underway in 33 of the 41 territorial electoral commissions (TECs) where mainly opposition election proxies had filed complaints. (NOTE: This constitutes 80 percent of the country's TECs. The recount by law must be completed within seven days of the election, by Tuesday, February 26 in this case. END NOTE.) They also confirmed that opposition proxies and international observers would be welcomed and involved in the recount. -------------- -------------- YEREVAN 00000156 002 OF 003 CHARGE ON GUIDANCE, STATEMENT, ALLEGED VIOLATIONS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The Charge assured Oskanian and Gevorkian that Washington had not yet issued an official statement, and that the guidance was meant only to prepare the Department for initial media inquiries. That said, the Charge stressed to both that the guidance and eventual statement would reflect the positive as well as negative observations made by ODIHR, particularly "our concerns" with the conduct of vote-counting, which American short-term observers shared with us directly. The Charge stated the Mission was also concerned about very high rates of voter turn-out, which in some Precinct Election Commissions (PECs) topped 90 percent and higher, with the majority of votes in these PECs going to Prime Minister Sargsian. He said the Mission also had reports of other "bizarre incidents" during the election that raised red flags, such as ballot box stuffing and opposition proxies being beaten up or removed from PECs. He added that the Mission was working to see where these allegedly occurred and gauge their impact. -------------- -------------- ONLY TECHNICAL ISSUES, AND OFFENDERS WILL BE PUNISHED -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Oskanian, Gevorkian and Sargsian all assured the Charge that technical issues were likely to blame at the 15-16 percent of PECs where ODIHR observed the vote count was "bad" or "very bad." They said the charges of use of mobile phones during vote counts, as well as failure to announce aloud the number of votes for each candidate, were technical issues that Sargsian pointedly asserted could not have influenced the overall outcome of the election. ¶7. (C) Gevorkian repeatedly assured the Charge that the GOAM was dedicated to making the post-election environment better than the pre-election period, and said both law enforcement authorities and the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) were already investigating complaints that had been filed by proxies at PECs. Sargsian interjected that most of the complaints had been filed by LTP proxies, and that investigations into these had even begun halfway through election day, prior to the LTP camp's sharing of them with ODIHR early that same evening. Gevorkian assured the Charge that all cases will be thoroughly investigated and offenders punished, even if it means jail time. -------------- -------------- WELL-BALANCED STATEMENT WILL CEMENT TIES WITH NEW PRESIDENT -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Both Sargsian and Armen Yeganian, Director of the MFA's Americas Department who was at the meeting with the Foreign Minister, subtly suggested to the Charge that a "well-balanced" statement would cement the positive US-Armenia ties established by Prime Minister Sargsian's fall 2007 visit to Washington. Presidential aide Sargsian opined that it was a "good moment to be constructive" and "build momentum" in the bilateral relationship. He cautioned, however, that a USG statement -- which is "quite important" to the Armenian people -- can either "incite the opposition" or signal to the people to "move on" to normal opposition activities after the formation of the new government. ¶9. (C) Yeganian ventured -- confidentially after the meeting was over -- that a well-balanced statement could even give the new President greater enthusiasm about expanding US-Armenian ties, and less reason for him to focus inordinately on Russian-Armenian relations. Both he and Sargsian expressed hope that there would be an element of congratulation in the statement, as they said was the case in post-election statements by Russia, France, and the European Union. -------------- NO INTENTION TO INTENSIFY THE SITUATION -------------- ¶10. (C) The normally cantankerous Gevorkian took pains to assure the Charge that the GOAM was committed to ensuring calm and order after the election. He said the GOAM had "no intention of intensifying the situation," that it was normal that losers of the election wanted to protest the results, YEREVAN 00000156 003 OF 003 and that the GOAM accepted the fact there was an element of the Armenian population that would never be satisfied with such competitions. He said the authorities were allowing the Ter-Petrossian protest then getting underway at Yerevan's central Freedom Square to proceed in spite of the fact that the organizers had not requested permission to assemble there. The Charge commended the authorities for their restraint during the protest rally and extensive downtown march that LTP's campaign had staged the day before (reftel), and urged the GOAM to continue with this approach. The Charge added that the final USG statement would emphasize to both sides the importance of maintaining calm in the post-election period. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) It is clear that the US public position on the election process looms large to senior Armenian officials. By holding off on a definitive statement for a day or two, we may be more effective in pushing for transparent re-counts and real investigations of alleged wrongdoing. Gevorkian said all the right things today about GOAM intentions to address the problems that occurred on election day. We will direct our efforts toward holding the authorities to that commitment, and have assured them that sincere efforts to investigate and redress election-day chicanery in the coming days will be positively reflected in how we characterize the election in our public statements. PENNINGTON