HOW TO WEATHER THE ECONOMIC CRISIS: A TALE OF TWO FORA

UNCLAS YEKATERINBURG 000083 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV RS SUBJECT: HOW TO WEATHER THE ECONOMIC CRISIS: A TALE OF TWO FORA Sensitive but unclassified. Not for internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Consulate officers attended a Sverdlovsk oblast Advisory Council meeting on November 28, and the Eighth Urals Investment Forum in Chelyabinsk on December 4. Both meetings were dedicated to discussing ways to weather the economic crisis. Politicians were enthusiastic promoters of foreign investment as a solution to the crisis and emphasized the importance of small and medium enterprises (SME),but gave no details on policy or legislative changes that might promote these objectives. Meanwhile, private business is looking to the government at all levels for a lifeline to get through the crisis, but also suggests measures such as reducing tariffs on key items and public investment in R&D. Participants in both fora acknowledged that more needs to be done to diversify the economy, improve infrastructure and foster transparency in the business environment . End summary. Cheerleading from the Administration -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At his Advisory Council meeting, Sverdlovsk oblast governor Eduard Rossel emphasized that efficiency must improve, noting that the productivity of Russian machine tool manufacturers is 40 times lower than foreign manufacturers. He said it is urgent that government encourage the creation of new SME to absorb the newly unemployed. Rossel expressed an interest in public works projects similar to US depression-era programs. He also said that the region has been given RR 8 million for development of nano technology. He highlighted the need to adopt energy saving methods and technologies, especially as government budgets are contracting. ¶3. (SBU) At the Urals Investment Forum, Yuriy Klyopov, deputy governor of Chelyabinsk oblast, recited steps the oblast has taken to attract foreign investment. He and other Chelyabinsk officials profiled projects for which they hope to find foreign investors in 2009; they consider tourism projects to be among the most promising. Klyopov also said that major companies in the region will continue major investments and expansion despite the international crisis. However, Klyopov acknowledged that the regional budget outlook for 2009 is strained because metallurgical production provides 64 percent of the oblast budget and sales have declined. ¶4. (SBU) Other government representatives in Chelyabinsk stressed that the federal government needs to provide money to municipalities to help support small and medium enterprises. The plan would provide not only credit, but expert business planning assistance to start-ups as well as SME in difficulty. Special programs to provide loan guarantees to assist export-oriented companies are also needed. Viktor Sorvin, head of Sverdlovsk Regional Administration of the Central Bank of Russia, recommended that government implement measures to attract investment, especially foreign direct investment, and invest more in innovation and high tech industries. More Realism from Property Developers -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Speaking about the construction sector at the federal and regional levels, Gosduma deputies Andrei Nazarov and Valeriy Gartung were less optimistic. They noted that the fall of oil prices, capital outflows, and an expectation that the situation will worsen have affected demand for housing and commercial space, and have led developers to freeze many projects. Overall, the sector has already seen layoffs and lower salaries. They predicted that an extended downturn could result in the collapse of the sector. Both presenters emphasized that the sector looks to government at all levels to take excess supply off the hands of developers and to keep things going with public projects such as hospitals and sports centers. (Note: we understand that Yekaterinburg city officials have concluded a deal to acquire 630 apartments from AtomStroiKomplex developer and will sell them to public employees.) ¶6. (SBU) Denis Sharipov, chairman of the association of Bashkhortostan Construction Companies, also hit a more realistic note, saying that unemployment is rising and the banking sector has suffered in Bashkhortostan. He emphasized that to weather the crisis, the republic will have to invest in research and the modernization of infrastructure to diversify the economy away from raw materials. Bashkhortostan also plans to support small businesses by extending credit to prevent a repeat of 1998 when 30-50 percent of small businesses disappeared. ¶7. (SBU) The director of a Chelyabinsk construction company strongly criticized government inaction vis-`-vis the construction industry, asserting that one person employed in the construction industry creates six jobs in other sectors. He pointed to government policies that have resulted in lack of demand and sales of housing units. He suggested several steps the government should take to stimulate public-private partnership in the construction sector: removal of administrative barriers; creation of a transparent land registration database; government construction of basic infrastructure to support future housing construction; and government subsidies of mortgages. And Prescriptions from the Private Sector -------------- ¶8. (SBU) EBRD representative Tatiana Yembulaeva stressed that expensive credit (note: in Yekaterinburg the commercial lending rate is now 28 percent) will continue to disrupt the lending market. Yembulaeva said that EBRD will invest up to USD 7 billion in Russia in 2009, as part of a 20 percent increase worldwide in investments in countries with transitional economies. EBRD's priorities will be infrastructure projects. EBRD looks to municipal and regional authorities to: 1) improve the regulatory and institutional base for investment; 2) balance risks through risk sharing and guarantees; 3) ensure clear and transparent rules for all players in the market including foreign investors; and 4) improve infrastructure. EBRD also recommended investing in companies with good governance that are diversifying the economy. ¶9. (SBU) Ernst & Young representatives counseled government participants to address barriers to foreign investment, such as a accounting and tax systems that are not compatible with western practices; lack of transparency; a complicated legal system; and a general lack of understanding of corporate decision-making processes. Other business representatives also called on government to invest in technology parks, sponsor business incubators, and work together with universities and business to create an environment where engineers laid off from metallurgical companies can start their own small businesses. Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) At both meetings there was a marked contrast between optimistic promotion from government officials with more realistic appraisal of the economic situation from business representatives. The sharply worded recommendations to government to lower import duties on key equipment and improve the investment climate in other ways might gain traction in a region where politics is dominated by business interests. For all of the discussion, very little new ground was covered in these sessions. Moreover, the prescriptions presented are all complex fixes that would have a positive effect only over time. Meanwhile, the regions are facing up to the immediacy of the impact of the crisis. In discussions with consulate contacts, it has become clear that regions that were previously net tax donors to the Center will suffer more as a result of the crisis. Kurgan Oblast, for example, receives around 60% of its regional budget from the Center, so is in relatively better shape to face ¶2009. On the other hand, like Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk oblast, where metallurgy accounts for 52 percent of gross regional production, is heavily affected by the drop in demand for metal products. SANDUSKY