CAMEROONIAN MINISTER: "SHUFFLE COMING, BIYA WANTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000772 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR TBIO CM SUBJECT: CAMEROONIAN MINISTER: "SHUFFLE COMING, BIYA WANTS OUT" REF: A. YAOUNDE 758 ¶B. YAOUNDE 237 ¶C. 07 YAOUNDE 1308 Classified By: Political Officer Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Summary. President Biya had wanted to step down in 2011, but when he learned "young" officials were robbing the treasury to finance their 2011 succession campaign, he was forced to remove presidential term limits in order to squelch internal jockeying for succession, according to Victor Mengot, Minister in Charge of Special Duties at the Presidency. In a July 30 conversation with Poloff, Mengot claimed a special relationship with Biya, whom he said would like to step down as soon as he has an acceptable succession scenario assured. Mengot said Biya knows officials within the Presidency are working to undermine his agenda, but that he can't act too quickly for fear of destabilizing Cameroon. Mengot said a cabinet shuffle is "in the offing" and that the Head of Police and the Ministers for Economy, Secondary Education, and Basic Education would be dropped and subsequently charged with corruption. End summary. ¶2. (C) On July 30, Poloff called on Victor Mengot, Minister in Charge of Special Duties at the Presidency, in order to follow up on Paul Hanrahan's (CEO of American energy company AES) July 24 visit to Cameroon (ref a). Mengot was clearly eager to know the details of Hanrahan's audience with Biya. Poloff confided that Biya had apologized to Hanrahan for a misunderstanding that had arisen when the Government of Cameroon (GRC) tried to pressure AES to accept a GRC-official onto the AES-SONEL board. Mengot appeared surprised that Biya was not actually the driving force behind the nomination and that Biya had blamed the embarrassment on zealous, out-of-touch "administrators" in the Presidency. ¶3. (C) Perhaps wanting to be on the right side of Biya's apology, Mengot subsequently claimed he had spoken privately with Biya to convey his personal reservations about the way the nomination to the AES-SONEL Board had been presented as a "fait accompli." Mengot said Biya had brought him to the Presidency in order to counteract Presidency officials who had become disloyal to Biya, often working to undermine his agenda. Mengot said he enjoyed his position and would not want to go "in town" (to one of the substantive ministries) where he would not have as much influence or power, but admitted he would be happy to be promoted to Deputy Secretary General at the Presidency. ¶4. (C) Having broached the topic of disloyalty in the Presidency, Mengot launched a broad discourse about the jockeying within ruling circles. Biya had intended to step down in 2011, Mengot asserted, but was forced to change his plans when he learned "young" ministers whom he had been grooming to take over had betrayed him and had been embezzling from the treasury for a war chest to fund their succession battle. Among the disloyalists, Mengot specifically mentioned former Finance Minister Polycarpe Abah Abah and former Health Minister Urbain Olanguena Owona (both of whom are now in jail on charges of corruption) and former Secretary General at the Presidency and Foreign Minister Jean Marie Atangana Mebara, who was arrested on August 1. ¶5. (C) According to Mengot, Biya was also scandalized by the scale of the embezzlement. Despite popular impressions, Mengot asserted, Biya has accumulated negligible wealth during his tenure as President. The large mansion being built close to the U.S. Embassy compound is "for the President's young family," and is owned by the GRC. Mengot said Biya owns no property in Europe, unlike many in the GRC and other presidents in the region, and is always forced to stay in hotels when visiting Europe. ¶6. (C) Mengot said he asked Biya why he didn't act faster to dismiss those who betrayed him; in response, Biya rhetorically asked, "who would be left?" and insisted he had to proceed slowly or risk destabilizing the country. Biya removed Abah Abah, Mebara and Olanguena in the September 2007 shuffle and would undertake the next tranche in a shuffle that is "in the offing," predicted Mengot. Mengot said four ministers would be dismissed and then prosecuted for their corruption: --Edouard Alain Mebe Ngo'o, current General Delegate for National Security (Head of Police or DGSN),former Chief of Cabinet; an ethnic Beti; --Louis-Paul Motaze, current Minister of Economy and Planning, former head of the National Social Security Fund (CNPS); a "nephew" of Biya's who grew up as a member of the YAOUNDE 00000772 002 OF 002 President's household; --Louis Bapes Bapes, current Minister of Secondary Education, an ethnic Bassa; --Haman Adama, current Minister of Basic Education, former Secretary of State for Education, an ethnic northerner (Fulani). ¶7. (C) Comment: Biya's intentions are famously illusory (hence his nickname "the sphinx"),but much of Mengot's analysis resonates with the image painted by other observers and GRC insiders (and refs b and c): Biya wants to plan his exit, but he will not allow his succession to be decided by members of his own government; he is aware that some of his closest advisors are disloyal, but is afraid of instability if he moves against them too quickly. What remains to be seen is whether Biya will find an acceptable succession scenario within his lifetime and what degree of democratic competition such a scenario would envisage. ¶8. (C) Although we do not want to be in the business of choosing Cameroon's next leader (and Biya seemed in terrific health in his July 24 meeting with Hanrahan),we do have an interest in following closely the internal battles for succession, especially inasmuch as the uncertainty could give rise to dangerous volatility. For all his faults, Biya is not brutal and he has succeeded in preserving Cameroon's stability while her neighbors have suffered from debilitating conflict. Some of the individuals purporting to wait in the wings may not possess even Biya's degree of selflessness. GARVEY