CAMEROON: CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUE HEATS UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YAOUNDE 000033

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICER
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018
TAGS: CM PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUE HEATS UP

REF: A. YAOUNDE 009


B. 07 YAOUNDE 1478

C. 07 YAOUNDE 1476 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: President Paul Biya's New Year's speech, in
which he announced his intention to "reconsider" changing the
constitution, particularly presidential term limits (ref A),
has sent shock waves throughout Cameroon. The private media,
many civil society activists, and some opposition figures
have been highly critical, though their influence remains
weak. The main opposition SDF party led a small
demonstration in Douala. On January 10, a prominent human
rights activist was interrogated by police for voicing
opposition. There are opponents of term limit change within
the ruling CPDM party, though they are timid and unlikely to
press the issue. It is likely the President will move ahead
with changing the term limits in the constitution, possibly
in March. However, the broader political context -- a more
aggressive anti-corruption campaign, rumblings of a Cabinet
shuffle, Biya's famous unpredictability, and ambivalence
among some in the diplomatic community -- complicate
forecasts and our future efforts to walk Biya back on the
term limit issue. End Summary.


Civil Society's Reaction
--------------


2. (C) President Biya's remarks about constitutional change
in his New Year's address continue to dominate media
attention. The private press has been highly critical of
constitutional change, which is almost universally seen as an
attempt by Biya to stay in office after his current term
expires in 2011. Some NGO activists have also been outspoken
against changing term limits and pushing for a referendum.
Hilaire Kamga, a prominent civil society leader, told poloff
that civil society NGOs would work with opposition parties
(and, covertly, with some CPDM parliamentarians) to combat a
constitutional amendment. If a constitutional change becomes
unstoppable, they will argue that any constitutional change
must be done through a referendum, he said. One NGO has
reportedly begun a signature campaign opposing constitutional
change. According to press reports, some Cameroonian
diaspora groups in the U.S. and Europe have also mobilized
against constitutional change.


Opposition Party Voices
--------------


3. (U) On January 6, 200 members of the opposition Social
Democratic Front (SDF) Provincial Executive Committee held an
impromptu march in Douala holding signs that said, "Biya Must
Leave in 2011." The organizers predicted that within two
weeks there would be a much larger demonstration. SDF
Secretary General Elizabeth Tamajong said "every Cameroonian

SIPDIS
who cares about the well-being of this country should join
us." According to press reports, SDF leader John Fru Ndi
stated: "I am calling on all civil servants and all
Cameroonians to stand up and resist this attempt at a
constitutional revision."


4. (SBU) Bernard Muna, President of the Alliance of
Progressive Forces (AFP) party, publicly stated that the AFP
opposed a constitutional amendment. He elaborated that there
were many items in the constitution that have not been
implemented; therefore, the President should focus on
implementation, not amendment. Samuel Mack Kit, leading a
faction of the Union de Population de Cameroon (UPC),
denounced the President's New Year comments as "a declaration
of war against all the people." Dr. Pierre Ngayap, Secretary
General of the National Union for Democracy and Progress
(UNDP),told Poloff the party has yet to decide whether it
supports a constitutional amendment, though he conceded the
majority of its members oppose it.


Voices Within the CPDM

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--------------


5. (C) Neither President Biya nor the ruling CPDM have made
official statements about constitutional change since Biya's
New Year's address. Some CPDM stalwarts have voiced motions
of support for removing presidential term limits. Some
(probably most) in the CPDM argue for broad constitutional
changes, including an amendment to term limits (Article 6.2),
while others in the party believe Article 6.2 should be left
untouched in any discussion of broader amendments.
Privately, there are notable voices of dissent. Outspoken
member of the CPDM Central Committee Charles Ateba Eyene told
us there was a sharp division in the party between the older
and the younger generation. He said the majority of the CPDM
Central Committee members oppose amending Section 6.2;
however, they did not have the courage to voice their
opposition.


6. (C) CPDM Parliamentarian and Vice President of the
National Assembly Rose Abunaw told poloff she and many other
CPDM Parliamentarians disagree with the amendment, but for
the sake of party discipline and to retain their lives and
jobs, they would vote for an amendment if the President sends
such a bill to the National Assembly. She opined that if the
voting process were secret, the amendment would not pass;
however, she said that Article 53 of the Standing Orders of
the National Assembly requires all votes for a constitutional
amendment to be done through an open ballot. She expected the
proposed amendment would be sent to the Assembly in March
2008 and would pass without difficulty. A prominent
government journalist (and CPDM member) also confirmed to
Pol/Econ Chief that many in the party are uncomfortable with
changing the term limit, especially without consulting the
grass roots, but that party discipline will prevail in
support of Biya. He had also no doubt the President would
pursue a term limit change in the near future.


Diplomatic Perspectives
--------------


7. (C) We have begun sounding out our diplomatic colleagues
on the constitutional issue and will have more discussions in
the coming weeks. None of our diplomatic colleagues have yet
made public statements or, to our knowledge, engaged the GRC
about the constitutional debate.

-- France: Phillipe Truquet, French DCM to Cameroon, told
Pol/Econ Chief that France sees the ongoing debate about
changing the constitution as an internal affair for
Cameroonians to decide. France will not make statements or
press Biya on the term limit issue, he said, although he
conceded that France was also surprised and displeased by the
timing of Biya's New Year's announcement about constitutional
change. Biya should focus on economic growth and reducing
poverty at this time, not on constitutional change,
especially given rising economic frustrations, Truquet
opined. He could only envision Paris weighing in on the term
limit issue if the political debate about the constitution
generated significant opposition to a level which threatened
internal stability. Truquet's advice to others in the
international community was: wait to see what Biya does with
constitutional change before making any intervention.

-- Netherlands: Dutch Ambassador Norbert Braakhuis told
Ambassador the constitutional issue was "a smoke screen."
Biya wants to burnish his reputation in his later years, he
opined. By creating the impression he will run again, Biya
is guarding against any impression he is a lame duck and
strengthening his hand to clean out dead wood in his Cabinet,
tackle corruption and improve the economy, Braakhuis said,
adding that Biya knows he faces little opposition but wants
to give people more of a reason to vote for him if he were to
run again. Braakhuis told Pol/Econ Chief separately that the
Dutch government would have difficulty objecting to changing
the term limit because the Netherlands has a monarchy and a
Prime Minister with no term limits. He thought other
European governments would have a similar difficulty taking a
stand on this issue.


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-- The United Kingdom: The usually outspoken UK High
Commissioner is out of the country, but UKHC poloff told us
the British Government was still formulating a position,
taking as precedent the UK's position in Nigeria. At the
moment, the UK's approach is likely to be a public call for
an inclusive and transparent debate of the merits of
constitutional change and "private" appeals to President Biya
to "consider his legacy," i.e., to gently encourage Biya to
step back from any constitutional adventures. UKHC poloff
anticipated that the High Commission would want to revisit
this stance and possibly adjust it to be more
forward-leaning, an approach that he thought would be more
likely if the USG and "perhaps one other EU country" would be
seen to be similarly inclined. UKHC poloff assessed that the
German Embassy would be the most likely among other EU
missions to stake out such a public position. (We will sound
out the Germans here in the coming week.)


Increasingly Complex Political Context
--------------


8. (C) The constitutional debate is taking place amidst
signs of heightened political infighting and uncertainty.
Some of our CPDM contacts told us the President would now
accelerate his anti-corruption campaign to appease the
critics of his efforts to change the constitution. We have
seen several recent major anti-corruption convictions (ref
C). Possibly part of such an effort was a leaked document,
extensively covered in the January 9 media, detailing the
Minister of Justice's efforts to crack down on a list of
senior officials implicated in corruption (which we will
report septel). At the least, this now-public list will
increase tensions within the Cabinet. Rumors are also
swirling of another imminent Cabinet shuffle, possibly
replacing the Prime Minister and President of the National
Assembly, establishing the long-awaited Senate, and creating
a Vice Presidential post. In addition, we have heard the
President is making a list of those in his Cabinet and inner
circle supporting his move for constitutional change. Many
media pundits and political contacts see the current
maneuvering as a prelude to the President not only amending
the constitution during the next parliamentary session in
March, but changing the mandate of the President from a seven
to a five year term and calling (and running in) fresh
elections in 2009.


Comment
--------------


9. (C) The SDF demonstration and public opposition to
constitutional change has been limited. However, in a
worrying development designed to intimidate the opposition,
security forces on January 10 interrogated civil society
activist Hilaire Kamga (para 2) for two hours about his vocal
stand on the constitutional issue and his relations with
political parties and diplomats. In response, on January 11,
prominent human rights activist and President of the
Independent Commission Against Discrimination and Corruption
Jean Claude Shanda Tonme issued a communique strongly
condemning the interrogation of Kamga as "fascist",
criticizing constitutional change, warning "those who want to
plunge the country in civil war", and reminding Cameroonians
to "learn the lessons from the situation in Kenya". The
Kamga incident could galvanize more opposition reaction.


10. (C) Some of our contacts believe the frustrations
following the New Year speech have reached a new height. One
long-time observer of Cameroon told Pol/Econ Chief this is
the first time since the 1990-92 violence that he is worried
about serious social unrest. French DCM Truquet, who has
been here for almost three years, echoed similar concerns of
deep public discontent exacerbated by growing economic
hardships. In the current complex, more strained political
and social context, our efforts -- publicly and privately --
to push back on amending the constitution will be difficult
and could carry major weight in the current internal
political dynamics. It will also, we believe, be welcomed by
a large number of Cameroonians.

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GARVEY