POLLS SHOW THAT NATIONAL STILL ON TARGET FOR ELECTION WIN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000259 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW THAT NATIONAL STILL ON TARGET FOR ELECTION WIN WELLINGTON 00000259 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Political polls released over the August 15-17 weekend showed that National maintained its strong lead over Labour despite some missteps by senior National MPs that threatened its popularity. While Labour is struggling to turn the tide, National appears impervious to much change in its support levels. The polls also showed that Labour's support parties may struggle to survive the election. The poll results were followed by the release of National's party list, which revealed significant emphasis on introducing much-needed diversity to National's ranks. End Summary. Polls Show Crisis No Hindrance to National's Popularity -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Three political polls released over the weekend of August 15-17 showed that the opposition National Party maintained its clear lead over the governing Labour Party. These poll findings come after a difficult period for National, which was accused by Labour of harboring a hidden agenda after the media released taped recordings of private comments by senior National MPs at its annual conference of August 2-3. ¶3. (SBU) The comments, made by National's Deputy Leader Bill English and senior MPs Lockwood Smith and Nick Smith, were secretly recorded , and later released to the media for publication. The comments hinted at a deviation from current National policy once it gets into government and greatly embarrassed those who made the comments and National's party leader, John Key. ¶4. (SBU) Labour had hoped that voters would react negatively towards National as a result of the published comments and thus punish it at the next polling round. Indeed, a special August 19 poll asking whether National is being open with its plans found that 50 percent believed it wasn't, with only 37 percent saying the party was being open. However, the polls which gauged party support showed that despite this suspicion voters did not desert National but continued to express its support for it. National's Dominance Over Labour Continues -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Roy Morgan Poll of August 15 found National ahead of Labour 48 percent to 34 percent. On August 16, the Fairfax-Nielsen Media survey showed National at 54 percent trumped Labour at 35 
percent. The August 17 Colmar Brunton poll, New Zealand's most recognized political poll, had National at 51 percent and Labour at 37%. In the Fairfax poll, Key extended his lead over Prime Minister Helen Clark in the preferred prime minister polling by 5 points overall from previous polling to have a 43 to 31 percent advantage. The Colmar Brunton poll had a narrower margin, but still showed Key ahead of Clark, 36-33 percent. Labour's Support Parties Wither -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Notable in the Fairfax-Nielsen Media and Colmar Brunton, considered more mainstream that the Roy Morgan poll, were the low levels of support for the minor parties, particularly Labour's current support parties, the Green Party and New Zealand First. Neither the Fairfax nor the Colmar Brunton poll found any third party had breached the 5 percent threshold needed for a party to return MPs to parliament. On these findings, the Maori Party, United Future, ACT and the Progressives, all likely to win electorate seats, will be the only minor parties in the next parliament in small numbers. On this basis, the Greens and New Zealand First, together with its leader Foreign Minister Winston Peters who is also unlikely to win a seat in a local constituency could be absent. National Party List Re-Shapes Image -------------- ¶7. (SBU) On August 17, National also released its long awaited party list, which provided party rankings for its sitting MPs and candidates alike in the upcoming election. Based on current polling, National is likely to secure a substantial percentage of the party vote which would allow for a large proportion of the ranked list to enter parliament, whether they win a seat or not. ¶8. (SBU) Noteworthy in National's new list was the high placement given to ethnic minorities. On becoming National's leader in 2006, Key promised to bring into his party a greater ethnic mix. National has previously faced criticism for being dominated by wealthy, white males. The new list not only has more candidates from Polynesian, Asian and Maori background, it also has them placed in positions WELLINGTON 00000259 002.2 OF 002 which virtually guarantee their entry into parliament at the next election. These particular candidates do not appear to have been awarded these high rankings by virtue of their ethnicity alone. They are each highly qualified and educated in their own right, including the Samoan-born and Cambridge educated Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga and Hekia Parata, a Maori woman, Harvard alumna and former New Zealand diplomat who has served in Washington. ¶9. (SBU) Comment. Clark and her colleagues will be frustrated that Labour did not get a better bounce from this on a period of crisis for National. These polls suggest that Labour's unrelenting strategy portraying National as untrustworthy and Key as unfit to lead is not working. Labour will need to consider a different tack to address National's consistently elevated popularity as the election looms; November 8 as the most commonly predicted date. Yet without a major misstep from National that would seriously erode its support, there appears little Clark can do to change the public's view that National is the government-in-waiting. National's newly released party list places pressure on Labour to put forth some fresh faces, as its party list is expected on August 30. End Comment. McCormick