PETERS REVEALS MAJOR EFFORT TO EXPAND NZ DIPLOMACY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000141 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NEW ZEALAND SUBJECT: PETERS REVEALS MAJOR EFFORT TO EXPAND NZ DIPLOMACY WELLINGTON 00000141 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. On April 16, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced an ambitious funding and staffing boost for MFAT which will pave the way for a significant expansion of New Zealand's presence around the world. The new funding come after decades of under-resourcing of New Zealand's foreign policy apparatus and will enable its Foreign Service to be more effective in opening new markets, supporting expanded security commitments, and as an international actor. However, the new funding did not receive opposition endorsement and its future could be subject to doubt if there is a change of government at the election later this year, as some expect. End Summary. Peters Unveils Major Step Up in NZ's Foreign Policy -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On April 16, Foreign Minister Winston Peters addressed the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, with a speech titled Stepping Up: New Zealand's Foreign Policy Footprint, and announced that MFAT needed more resources to meet the growth of international challenges confronting New Zealand. As such, Peters announced that in the next Government budget, due to be presented on May 22, MFAT's budget baseline will be increased by NZ$523 million in new operating funding and a capital injection of NZ$98 million over the five years 2008-12. That amounts to a cumulative figure of NZ$621 million over five years. The current annual MFAT operating budget is currently NZ$278 million and its annual capital expenditure budget is NZ$35 million. More Diplomats -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The new funding will allow MFAT to increase diplomatic and support staffing at New Zealand's diplomatic posts and headquarters in Wellington from 212 now to around 320 over five years. This amounts to total increase of around 50 percent, or an average of roughly 20 people per year. The total number of MFAT diplomats and support personnel is expected to grow from 613 now to about 850 in 2012, an increase of around 40 percent. The Purpose behind the Numbers -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Peters cited a number of policy imperatives driving MFAT's expansion: --THE PACIFIC. * To strengthen New Zealand posts in Port Moresby, Honiara and Suva. * To contribute more to the Pacific Security Fund. --ASIAN REGIONALISM. * To create an ambassadorship to ASEAN. * To contribute more to the Asia Security Fund. --TRADE. * To provide more resources to New Zealand embassies in Tokyo, Beijing, New Delhi, and Riyadh to increase momentum towards FTAs either being negotiated or considered. * To enlarge the MFAT Americas Division in Wellington to increase momentum for an FTA with the United States. --SCANDANAVIA. * To open a new embassy in Stockholm to coordinate foreign policy and human rights with the like-minded Nordics. --AFGHANISTAN. * To strengthen the New Zealand Embassy in Tehran to allow better coverage of security issues in Pakistan and in Afghanistan, where New Zealand has a major deployment. --ENVIRONMENT. * To develop specialized climate change negotiation roles within MFAT. * To develop a greater number of specialists in the areas of sustainability, biodiversity, fisheries and international law. --CONSULAR. * To increase capacity to serve and protect New Zealanders overseas in times of crisis. WELLINGTON 00000141 002.2 OF 003 Reason: Fear of Being Ignored -------------- ¶5. (SBU) One obvious driver for this funding increase appears to be one born of necessity. Peters reminded the audience that during the 1990s "the government took the pruning shears to New Zealand's Foreign Service, forcing on it a decade-long decline in funding, in real terms, of more than 30 per cent." Peters also noted that MFAT "still has fewer staff today than 20 years ago, and those staff seem to be working permanently in overdrive." ¶6. (SBU) An even more important driver behind the funding increase would appear to be the fear of New Zealand becoming a marginal actor in international affairs should it not expand its international presence. Peters talked about renewing and expanding New Zealand's "strong international reputation" in the years ahead. More revealing, Peters asserted in response to a question after his formal remarks that New Zealand faced a clear choice of whether "to engage more effectively or risk becoming a country with third world status." ¶7. (SBU) MP Peter Dunne, former Chair of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee, and now Minister of Revenue, told post that he believes that this budget announcement signalled that New Zealand is looking to play a more active role in international affairs. Dunne thinks that New Zealand is "thin on the ground" particularly outside the Pacific. Peter Cozens, the Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, told post that he believes that the desire to expand diplomatic presence reflects Prime Minister Helen Clark's own internationalist aspirations. Long-Term Political Future of New Funding Uncertain -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The opposition National Party's reaction to the budget announcement was far from an endorsement and Dunne believes that there is no guarantee that a National-led Government will adopt the MFAT funding program. Even though the convention of bi-partisanship in foreign policy is generally uniformly embraced by New Zealand political parties, Opposition leader John Key has made it clear that a National-led Government - the party is consistently well ahead of Labour in the polls - will cap the number of bureaucrats at the current 36,000. Dunne believes National leader John Key's commitment to capping the core public sector could rule out even a partial adoption of the new budget. Timing Allows Peters a Sole Political Glory -------------- ¶9. (SBU) It is customary that budget announcements of this scale are made on Budget day itself by the Finance Minister, Dr. Michael Cullen. Dunne believes that there are two reasons why the Clark and Cullen consented to allow Peters to make this advance announcement. Firstly, it mollifies Peters, a key political ally of Labour who disapproves of the quality of the FTA with China, by allowing him to take the full credit himself and package the funding increases as his own. Dunne thinks that there is another reason behind the timing of the budget announcement. He believes that the advanced announcement will mitigate the risk of attention been taken away from the expected centrepiece of Cullen's May Budget - the long-awaited tax cuts, which Labour considers important to its re-election prospects. In terms of budget process, the details of the new budget are required to be disclosed to the cross-party Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee where it examines the estimates immediately following the May Budget's introduction to Parliament. Dunne believes that the Budget will pass scrutiny without any problems. Increased Operations a Challenge for MFAT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Dunne suspects that the driving force behind the budget increase was MFAT CEO Simon Murdoch and not Peters. He believes that Murdoch energetically, yet quietly, lobbied his minister to boost the budget and the result shows that Peters is, in the words of Dunne, "well house trained" by his officials. Nonetheless, Paul Willis, the MFAT official charged identifying where the new resources should be allocated, believes that the goal of training and implementing the extra MFAT staff is a "significant challenge" as a major, and difficult, re-vamp of existing support infrastructure must first be made. COMMENT -------------- WELLINGTON 00000141 003.2 OF 003 ¶11. (SBU) This budget is a sizable for New Zealand's tightly-formed Foreign Service. Its ambition seems to track the current frame of mind of Clark, who is eager for her country to blaze a trail in many different fields - from the goal of becoming the world's first carbon-neutral nation to being the first development country to sign a FTA with China. Although National has a number of reasons not to endorse the expanded MFAT budget, Key's foreign affairs inner circle is dominated by former diplomats and internationalists who would likely endorse an expanded diplomatic presence of the kind. Moreover, given the Peters has stated that the funding will be part of his party's negotiation strategy post-election, Key will more than likely adopt it if he needs to court Peters' support in order to govern. End Comment Keegan