UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000138

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: LABOUR HAS DOMINATED THE STAGE, BUT NOT THE POLLS


1. (SBU) For the past month, Labour has dominated the stage and the
headlines in New Zealand: talk of prospective tax cuts; a refusal to
authorize sale of Auckland Airport shared to a Canadian investor;
the Beijing signing of the FTA; and then the Party Congress. After
all of that the One News-Colmar Brunton poll (New Zealand's most
prominent) did not make for pleasant reading at Labour Party HQ. It
showed that National (54% - up four points) had edged further ahead
of Labour which remained steady at 35%. National's leader, John Key
maintained his comfortable margin over Prime Minister Helen Clark as
the nation's preferred leader 35% to 29% respectively.


2. (SBU) The explanation may lie in a vortex of negativity that has
afflicted Labour since PM Clark signed the FTA with China - first
there were calls not to sign because of the Tibet protests, and then
Foreign Minister Winston Peters refused to accept that the landmark
deal was foreign policy and said he would not support this effort of
Labour trade policy. The party Congress, which focused on
organizing the party for the upcoming election, the following
weekend proved to be a PR disaster. Media coverage of the Labour
Party Congress was dominated by protests outside the venue,
accusations of a furtive planned circumvention of campaign spending
rules endorsed by Labour's beleaguered President Mike Williams, and
a derisive political song parody delivered by Labour MPs mocking
Key, all of which turned off viewers and cast a pall over Labour.


3. (SBU) At first it appeared that Labour could take solace in a 3
News-TNS poll because it showed that not only had National lost 3
points lower not to 48%, but Labour gained 3 points up now to 38%.
Labour could have taken further comfort from the poll's finding that
Clark's gained 4 points in personal voting to bring her to 32%,
whereas Key dropped 6 points to 29%. However, we have learned that
the 3 News-TNS poll was conducted before the controversial Labour
Party Congress, which may explain its more favorable results.


4. (SBU) Comment. Many media pundits have been increasingly critical
of National and John Key for letting Labour dominate the agenda, but
National may be wondering whether it would not be smarter to allow
Labour to continue defeating itself. End Comment.

Keegan