TFGG01: POLES SUPPORT GEORGIA, PREDICT RUSSIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000949 SIPDIS EUR FOR GARBER, EUR/CE FOR PIERANGELO E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PARM NATO KCFE RU GG PL SUBJECT: TFGG01: POLES SUPPORT GEORGIA, PREDICT RUSSIAN PRESSURES ON UKRAINE NEXT REF: STATE 86108 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Pamela Quanrud for Reason 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer told Charge August 12 that the GoP welcomes the Russian announcement of a cease-fire, and hopes for early Russian-Georgian talks. Kremer said President Kaczynski's visit to Georgia today is aimed at gathering information, and demonstrating support, but would not provide "dramatic gestures," despite FM Sikorski's last-minute addition to the Presidential delegation. The GoP is uncertain whether the EU will agree to a European Council meeting on Georgia at the Head-of-State/Head-of-Government level, and believes the Polish proposal for an EU-led peacekeeping mission in Georgia is unlikely to win EU approval. The Poles increasingly believe that Ukraine will be the next victim of Russian pressure, and Kremer recommended consideration of an accelerated track to MAP for Ukraine, separating it from a Georgia MAP process that may unfortunately have become unhinged. END SUMMARY. PRESIDENT/FM TRIP TO GEORGIA ¶2. (C) Deputy FM Andrzej Kremer told Charge today's trip by President Kaczynski and Foreign Minister Sikorski to Georgia is focused on information-gathering and providing moral and political support to the Georgians. Sikorski was added to the trip at the last minute, but still expects to get to attend tomorrow's meeting of EU Foreign Ministers. In addition to its political activities, Poland is involved in a number of humanitarian efforts. EU LOATHE TO CHALLENGE THE RUSSIANS ¶3. (C) For tomorrow's GAERC, Kremer said the Poles want to hear the results of French FM Kouchner's and President Sarkozy's visits to Russia and Georgia. The Poles are pleased with the Russian announcement of a cessation of hostilities and want to encourage both sides to begin talks. Kremer was appreciative of reftel suggestions for the GAERC, but was pessimistic regarding the possibility of EU peacekeeping forces (or monitors) deploying to Georgia, as the GoP has proposed. As for the Polish request for a European Council meeting devoted to the Georgian crisis, Kremer said the French are non-committal, and are merely polling EU members to gauge support. ¶4. (C) Kremer questioned whether the EU has the means and the will to counter Russia's aims in the region. Poland will consult with Germany, Italy, Ireland and Slovakia, but there are EU countries that feel the EU shouldn't "irritate" Russia. He expressed doubt that the EU would agree to bring the EU-Russia partnership Agreement talks to bear in this situation. On the energy front, Kremer said Russia has all the cards, and it is unlikely the EU would touch the Northstream pipeline. ¶5. (C) Kremer said that Russia had achieved all its goals in Georgia, through "brutal means." The conflict, besides weakening Saakashvili politically, effectively nixes Georgia's chances to get a MAP. Although Kremer said it was too early to link the situation in Georgia to its MAP candidacy at the current NAC, he said Georgia's bid was clearly in trouble, given the intractability of the "frozen conflicts." The Russians liquidated Georgia's means of resistance in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and those remaining there -- almost solely South Ossetians and Abkhazians -- will certainly do Russia's bidding in any plebiscite or referendum. Kremer said the conflict has broken Georgia economically, maintaining that a Russian strike against the oil pipeline was successful (despite press reports that the strike had missed). Kremer argued that Georgia's role as an energy corridor for Caspian oil and gas supplies is now in question. UKRAINE IN THE CROSS HAIRS? ¶6. (C) Now that Russia has achieved its goals in Georgia, Kremer said, the Poles believe that Ukraine is next. FM Sikorski argues that it makes sense to accelerate a MAP for Ukraine, and to separate it from Georgia's failing MAP candidacy. Russia could now attempt to block Ukraine's NATO aspirations in a number of ways: raising gas prices as of January 1, 2009; manipulating Russian-Ukrainian tensions over control of the Black Sea Fleet issue; and arguing that it has to protect Russian citizens in the Crimea. Kremer noted that Ukraine has sought to blcok Russian ships participating in WARSAW 00000949 002 OF 002 actions in Georgia from returning to Ukrainian ports. Russia will also pursue a strategy of divide-and-conquer in the competition between Ukraine's Prime Minister and President. ¶7. (C) Besides looking at a separate MAP strategy for Ukraine, Poland is also exploring other ideas, such as helping Ukraine modernize its armed forces. Kremer said the Poles would like to solicit U.S. thoughts about a possible enlarged military agreement between Poland and Ukraine, and any limits on defense cooperation between NATO members and non-members. ¶8. (C) Comment: The Poles continued their foray deep into the Georgian conflict on many fronts simultaneously today, with the PM calling for EU heads to meet, the President and FM embarking for a joint Polish-Baltic-Ukrainian mission to Tblisi, and discussions going late into this evening at the Polish National Security Council with representatives from the MOD. Flying times allowing, FM Sikorski still hopes to attend tomorrow's GAERC, and make it back to Warsaw to begin Ballistic Missile Defense negotiations with U/S Rood -- quite a feat, if he pulls it off. End Comment. QUANRUD