POLAND-MISSILE DEFENSE: MILITARY MODERNIZATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000597 STATE FOR PM, EUR AND ISN SECDEF FOR DASD FATA EUCOM FOR EC-J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2018 TAGS: PREL MARR MASS MCAP PL SUBJECT: POLAND-MISSILE DEFENSE: MILITARY MODERNIZATION GROUPS START WORK REF: WARSAW 492 Classified By: DCM Pamela Quanrud for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In support of USG commitments to work with Poland on the latter,s military modernization, and to secure Poland,s earliest return to missile defense (MD) talks, PM AA/S Stephen Mull led an interagency team (including DASD Fata and EUCOM BG Mayville and BG Carr) to a bilateral Security Cooperation Consultation Group (SCCG) meeting in Warsaw on May 7. Deputy Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski and Deputy Defense Minister Komorowski chaired the Polish side, which included some 30 MFA and MOD officials. Each of the SCCG's subgroup chairs (Defense Modernization, Intelligence, Defense Trade and Finance) briefed the full group, explored their respective group's scope of work, and established tentative calendars for future meetings. The two sides agreed to work towards agreed recommendations by the end of July. As expected, the Defense Modernization Working Group (DMWG) took center stage with a "very supportable" agenda presented by BG Juszczak focused on legitimate, obtainable goals. BG Mayville agreed with Juszczak,s plan and suggested consideration of a longer-term U.S.-Polish High Level Defense Group (HLDG) based on a U.S.-Turkish model. Outside of the SCCG, AA/S Mull and DASD Fata met with the parliamentary chairs for defense and foreign affairs, and Mull held a press conference that received wide coverage. END SUMMARY Setting the Stage -------------- ¶2. (C) Acting Assistant Secretary for Political Military Affairs (PM AA/S) Stephen Mull opened the SCCG by defining the talks as "much larger than Missile Defense" and recommending that the two sides find a clear way forward by the end of July. He called on the working groups to address threats to Poland not only for the benefit of Poland but also to enhance U.S. and NATO security. He recalled that Poland is already the sixth largest recipient of Foreign Military Finance (FMF) funds and that the Administration's recent request to grant Poland an additional $20 million of FMF demonstrates the USG's ongoing commitment to Polish military modernization. Mull was careful to underscore that, while not financially responsible for Polish military modernization, the USG would work with Poland to maximize USG contributions alongside efficient and effective modernization plans. He made clear that our cooperation was not a quid pro quo but rather a case of allies working together to meet mutual obligations. ¶3. (C) DASD Fata followed up by recalling that our relationship was strategic, not transactional. He pointed out the need to discern the difference between Poland's short, medium and long term defense needs so that our cooperation unfolded in the right context. ¶4. (C) DFM Waszczykowski framed the discussions as an effort to enhance Poland's already proven ability to contribute to NATO. He reported that Prime Minister Tusk and Foreign Minister Sikorski had both indicated that they understood the Administration's request for an additional $20 million of military assistance for Poland in FY 2009 as an important gesture and a step in the right direction. Waszczykowski agreed with Mull that the military modernization track needed to remain separate from -- but consistent with -- the MD track. He and Komorowski noted heated Polish media coverage of the issues but reiterated GOP support to find a way forward. The Working Groups -------------- ¶5. (U) The four working groups were chaired as follows: Defense Modernization: U.S. - BG Mayville, Poland - BG Juszczak Intelligence: U.S. - BG Carr; Poland - Col Wasielewski Defense Trade: Robert S. Kovac; Poland, Col Liszcz Finance: U.S. - David Bame; Poland - Col Sodolski. ¶6. (C) The intelligence working group's BG Carr recommended, and COL Wasielewski agreed, that the group would hold its first formal meeting on May 19 and then prepare an "initial threat assessment" by the end of May. Carr envisioned producing an assessment on two main focus areas, looking as far forward as 2015: one section that identifies military threats to Poland; and a second section that identifies the threats and security issues associated or attributable to the stationing of a missile defense site in Poland. Wasielewski accepted Carr's methodology and offered to host meetings in Warsaw, but also asked the U.S. to consider a more distant time horizon by forecasting threats 15 to 20 years into the future. ¶7. (C) The defense trade working group gave Liszcz, who seemed new to the issues, a chance to ask the USG to review the exportability of the Excalibur, MLRS and Patriot systems. Kovac agreed to take the request back to Washington and reiterated the USG offer to review any other export licensing or technology transfer concerns held by Poland. Both sides agreed that their main effort would begin once the DMWG was able to provide additional inputs. ¶8. (C) The finance working group also agreed that its main effort would begin after the DMWG provided inputs. Sodolski, who pointedly requested a separate meeting while the intel group provided briefings to the plenary, provided a PowerPoint presentation on GOP budget processes. He and Bame agreed that the group provided a useful opportunity to learn more about each other's budget processes, including how to deal with additional costs that might arise in the SCCG process. Sodolski, the Deputy Director of the Budgetary Department in the Ministry of National Defense, stated that the Ministry of Defense could not enter into a commercial loan without special authorization by the Sejm (Parliament). He also requested USG support to bring the Polish Ministry of Finance into discussions as soon as possible. Bame and Sodolski later briefed the plenary on general aspects of the plan. Common Ground: Defense Modernization -------------- ¶9. (C) In the defense modernization group, BG Juszczak Provided a brief closely in tune with USG thinking. He defined Poland's military priorities in order of importance as: professionalization, participation in operations, modernization and cooperation. He underscored Polish interest in enhanced C4ISR, air defense, long range artillery, strategic transportation, sea defense and combat service support while stressing interest in "systems." Finally, Juszczak usefully offered to "start discussion on the basis of our threat assessment." ¶10. (C) BG Mayville expressed appreciation for Juszczak's "very supportable" agenda and noted, "We think that's where you need to be." Mayville went on to cite Poland's F-16 program as a good example of the challenges associated with the transfer of an advanced weapons system, while stressing the need to build "capacity" and not just transfer equipment. Mayville agreed to hold the first defense modernization meeting on May 19 to "build a construct" of what the deliverable "might look like." Mayville, supported by other USG officials, closed by asking the SCCG to consider Polish participation in a High Level Defense Group (HLDG) to keep momentum going beyond this current effort. Mull/Fata Meetings at Sejm -------------- ¶11. (SBU) While the SCCG plenary wrapped up, Mull and Fata met separately with Krzysztof Lisek, Chairman of the Sejm (parliament) Foreign Relations Commission and Janusz Zemke, Chairman of the Sejm Defense and Special Services Commissions and former Deputy Minister of Defense (2001-2005). (Note: both officials will be influential in any eventual parliamentary debate on Missile Defense.) Mull reviewed with each MP the progress of discussions on military modernization and the establishment of the working groups, and reiterated President Bush's commitment to working with Poland to modernize its military. He noted the Administration's request for an addition $20 million in FMF as a clear signal of our intentions, but reiterated that the U.S. cannot foot the entire bill for modernization. Finally, he noted that there are alternatives to Poland for the interceptor site, but that Poland is the best choice for many reasons and we wanted to go forward with an agreement with Poland. Lisek, a first-tour deputy from the governing Civic Platform (PO) party, described some of the public misconceptions about MD: the sense that the U.S. should "do something" for Poland if it hosts MD, comparisons to assistance levels to countries like Israel, and broader fears about the Russian reaction. Fata described the broader support (nearly $1 billion since the GWOT began) we provide to Poland in support for operations, which adds up to far more than the $27 million that the USG annually provides in FMF. He expressed concern that, if MD negotiations with Poland fail, the Russians could exploit the outcome to split NATO. Fata also reiterated the importance of our Article 5 commitments. Lisek and Zemke both asked what would happen with the change of U.S. Administration, expressing concern about the commitment of various U.S. presidential candidates to MD. Mull and Fata acknowledged they could not predict a future administration's decisions, but pointed to strong bipartisan support for MD and for the third site. ¶12. (SBU) Zemke, perhaps the Sejm's most experienced defense expert, pointed out that the left coalition and his party are deeply divided on MD, but that his party has never "run a campaign" against MD. He said he personally supports MD and supports the position that agreement to the site should be linked to support from the U.S. on modernization. He said he did not think the current government (of which his party is generally critical) had any "hidden agenda" and is not "playing games" on MD. He describe in detail his assessment of needs and a summary of the cost of transforming Poland's military since 1989, concluding that the reality remained that Poland's military is in a difficult situation because of the enormous demands of modernization and the deferred costs of procurement. He described helicopters, the navy, and air defenses as, in his view, top critical need areas for procurement ) but Poland could not afford to do all three at once. Assistance on air defense would directly support MD and fulfill a clear need. He argued that Poland has been making an effort, stating that it has been increasing its purchasing budget for the military at a higher rate than any other European country since 2001, but that it needs help. Mull and Fata expressed appreciation for his assessment and reiterated the importance of Poland showing it had put its own resources toward modernization, as well as the importance of moving quickly on MD negotiations. Media Coverage -------------- ¶13. (U) Seven TV networks, all the major wires, and leading radio stations covered Mull's press conference at the Embassy after the SCCG talks. In light of GOP comments and some sensationalist reporting just before the talks, sparked by the additional FMF request, Mull opened with a statement in Polish on the overall effort and the USG commitment to making progress. He described the USG approach to establishing the joint working groups and underscored that any further military assistance to Poland needed to start with a joint assessment of Poland's projected military needs. Public TV covered Mull's statements on the extent of U.S. military assistance and the need for joint assessments, as well as Waszczykowski's statement in a separate interview that "there is a positive attitude and determination of the American authorities to meet Poland half-way. It fills us with optimism." ¶14. (U) This cable was cleared by AA/S Mull. ASHE