POLAND: U/S DOBRIANSKY MEETING WITH MFA SIKORSKI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 WARSAW 000512 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR G, S/P, EUR, WHA EUR/NCE FOR LLOCHMAN, BPUTNEY S/P FOR DPITTMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2018 TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV KDEM PL SUBJECT: POLAND: U/S DOBRIANSKY MEETING WITH MFA SIKORSKI WARSAW 00000512 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: AMBASSADOR VICTOR ASHE, REASONS 1.4 B, D ¶1. (C) Summary: Minister of Foreign Affairs Radek Sikorski told Under Secretary for Global Affairs Dobriansky that Poland has selected a head for the Secretariat of the Community of Democracies, although the name is not yet public. Minister Sikorski believes the U.S. should do more to support TV Belarus. Poland considers the new UN Human Rights Council a disappointment. The NATO allies crafted a fair compromise for Georgia and Ukraine that promises them eventual membership - something Poland diQ have when it pursued membership. Minister Sikorski characterized Germany as a Russian Trojan horse in NATO. He opined that NATO needs to concentrate more on civilian rebuilding in Afghanistan and improve infrastructure and logistical capabilities or risk being unable to defend members. The Under Secretary welcomed Under Secretary Ryszard Schnepf's proposal to discuss Latin American issues after the EU-Latin America Summit in mid-May. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Under Secretary for Global Affairs Dobriansky met with Minister of Foreign Affairs Radek Sikorski during a visit to Warsaw on April 14. Other Polish interlocutors were Ambassador Andrzej Jaroszynski, Director of the Americas Department; Ambassador Marcin Nawrot, Director of the UN System and Global Affairs Department; and Maciej Nowak, America's Department desk officer (notetaker). The U.S. delegation also included Ambassador, Dean Pittman of S/P, and Econoff (notetaker). The Under Secretary had a brief follow-on meeting with Under Secretary of State Ryszard Schnepf. Under Secretary Dobriansky's meetings with Minister of Environment Nowicki and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Pawlak are reported septel. Community of Democracies - Poland Acting While Others Talk -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Under Secretary Dobriansky expressed her thanks for the Minister's efforts to establish the secretariat for the Community of Democracies and asked for an update on Polish efforts. Minister Sikorski commented that Poland is acting while others are just talking. The staff had been selected but not yet appointed. Professor Bronislaw Misztal, a Polish-American teaching at American University, will head the Secretariat. Misztal is an informal advisor to the Minister and has 30 years of experience in Democracy issues, including Cuba. He will be in Warsaw within two weeks. Cuba -------------- ¶4. (C) The U/S described the recent USG roundtable on Cuba in Miami with representatives from EU countries including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Germany, Spain, and the UK. The USG is trying to broaden the engagement on Cuba with a different approach. During the roundtable the countries heard directly from the Cuban community about their desire for advice from those with practical experience with the transition to democracy. They are particularly interested in the experience of Central European countries. The Minister stated that he made a proposal on Cuba to the Ambassador and is waiting for feedback. Ambassador replied that the Department is anxious to pursue anything that will work and that he would follow-up on the discussion. TV Belarus - U.S. Can Do Better -------------- ¶5. (C) Minister Sikorski noted that Poland is receiving support from several countries for TV Belarus. The United Kingdom, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Ireland are now contributing. He allocated 18 million zloty from this year's budget for the effort. To Under Secretary Dobriansky's WARSAW 00000512 002.2 OF 004 comment that Assistant Secretary Fried had agreed to provide resources to the efforts, Sikorsky responded that the U.S. can do better than $200,000. To date, 7.3% of Belarussians have seen the channel, which in his opinion is pretty good. Ambassador Jaroszynski added that negotiations are underway to change the satellite used by the station to provide better access for viewers. Minister Sikorski noted that journalists working on the project are being persecuted - a good sign. UN Human Rights Council a Disappointment -------------- ¶6. (C) When Minister Sikorski was in Geneva two weeks ago he was briefed by Poland's Ambassador to the UN there about the new Human Rights Council. He was surprised to hear that the Council is worse than the previous Human Rights Commission. Under Secretary Dobriansky responded that the USG was concerned about the Council and its membership. The U.S. believed that the previous Commission had a broader focus. The current Council appeared not to be functioning in a desired way - for example there have been at least 15 resolutions that are anti-Israel. The USG wants to support the Human Rights Council, but the institution has not moved forward in the right way. Reaction of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO Ministerial -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Under Secretary Dobriansky asked the Minister for his opinion of Ukraine and Georgia's views of the results of the recent NATO Ministerial. Minister Sikorski replied that Ukraine and Georgia came out of the meeting well. The Allies crafted a fairly good compromise. While Ukraine and Georgia did not get MAP they were promised eventual NATO membership, a promise Poland did not have when it wanted to join NATO. He remembered despairing that Poland would ever be a NATO member three years after Poland announced that it wanted to join. The Ukrainians and Georgians know there will be reviews and have to get their acts together. Ukraine wasted time and moral authority since the Orange Revolution. Tymoshenko sent mixed signals in the run-up to Bucharest. Germany and Russia -------------- ¶8. (C) Minister Sikorski wryly commented that many accused Poland of being the U.S. Trojan horse in the EU when it joined in 2004, but there is another Trojan horse in NATO. In Bucharest, Germany declared its independence of the U.S. on the crucial issue of Ukrainian and Georgian membership. Asked by the Under Secretary if this has ramifications that the U.S. should be concerned about, Sikorski responded that in formulating its Eastern Policy the EU can't do much without Germany. Asked what the U.S. strategy should be towards Germany and Russia, Sikorski responded that Germany appears to have a deal with Russia. "They'll play with Russia and in return German companies will get hundreds of billions of Euros of business there, a pretty good deal." In recent talks with German Foreign Minister Steinmeier, Sikorski said that Poland wants Ukraine in the EU by 2020. Steimeier appeared receptive when he realized there is time for Ukraine to prepare and it would not happen overnight. The Future of NATO -------------- ¶9. (C) Minister Sikorski said he is worried about NATO. Chancellor Merkel is talking about NATO as an alliance rather than a military organization. NATO's attractiveness will only continue if it has the logistics and infrastructure to support new members. Repeating his oft stated complaints, Sikorski said Poland doesn't feel like a proper member of NATO: it only has one unfinished conference center. He said it is doubtful NATO would really help Poland because there is WARSAW 00000512 003.2 OF 004 not the infrastructure and logistics chain to do so, raising questions about how well NATO would defend Ukraine and Georgia. More must be done to even out the distribution of NATO's infrastructure. If not, the time will come when NATO is just a political club, its bluff will be called, and there will be political consequences. NATO's strategy needs to be reassessed. The Alliance is too politically correct. Recently, intelligence gathered on increases in the Russian defense budget was censored at the level of the NATO 301. This then skewed the threat assessment. NATO doesn't have war games and exercises any more. One of the strengths of NATO was its military component and horizontal links between militaries, which is being lost because the militaries are not exercising together. Putin "Outrageous" in Bucharest -------------- ¶10. (C) "Prime Minister Putin was completely outrageous in Bucharest," said the Minister. Putin called Ukraine a seasonal, artificial state, not long for this world. The Ukrainian Defense Minister was in Warsaw last Thursday and Minister Sikorski gave him a classified copy of PM Putin's speech, telling him it might be helpful in fighting for his budget. Prior to receiving the speech, the Defense Minister had only seen the press reports. Afghanistan -------------- ¶11. (C) Responding to S/P Pittman's inquiry of whether NATO's position was stronger or weaker after Bucharest, the Minister said that no one has any idea how to deal with Afghanistan. The real solutions are civilian. The EU should solve the problem, but its members see Afghanistan as a U.S. problem. The military is in a holding pattern and NATO as an institution is incapable of thinking about a political project to coopt the Afghanistani regional warlords and elites. We should be targeting money and could have more development in Afghanistan. We need a rigorous counter insurgency strategy. There should be a change in thinking and 80% of efforts should be in the civilian sector. ¶12. (C) Asked about the Polish people's commitment to GOP efforts in Afghanistan, the Minister responded that Polish activities in Afghanistan are unpopular but there is not energetic hostility, probably because losses have been low. But, that could change easily. He is trying to explain the mission, arguing that engagement in Afghanistan should demonstrate to the U.S. how Poland can be useful to NATO. In return, the U.S. should make more signs that Poland's territorial defense is important. The U.S. only has six soldiers on Polish soil outside the embassy. COP --- ¶13. (C) Under Secretary Dobriansky concluded by stating that while in Warsaw she is also meeting with Minister of Economy Nowicki and Minister of Economy Pawlak about the UN Conference of Parties (COP) Conference to be held in Poznan in December. Minister Sikorski noted that the MFA is just monitoring GOP efforts. U/S Dobriansky commented that the GOP appears to have a good plan to take advantage of the COP by scheduling seminars in DC. Post EU-Latin America Summit -------------- ¶14. (C) During a brief follow-on meeting, Under Secretary Ryszard Schnepf told Under Secretary Dobriansky that he would like to discuss Latin American issues with the USG after the EU-Latin American summit in May. Besides the Summit outcomes, he could discuss Venezuela and the future of the WARSAW 00000512 004.2 OF 004 Community of Democracies. Under Secretary Dobriansky told the U/S about the Day of Solidarity with Democracy in Cuba that the USG is encouraging other governments to support. The USG is very interested in the Community of Democracies and would like guidance from Poland on the best structure, countries to involve, and issues to prioritize. The U.S., Chile, and South Korea will assign staff to the secretariat and the USG is trying to get other countries involved. Chile is trying to get the EU more involved. ¶15. (U) Under Secretary Dobriansky cleared on this cable. ASHE