MISSILE DEFENSE AND POLISH MILITARY MODERNIZATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000314 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR PM, EUR AND ISN SECDEF FOR DASD FATA EUCOM FOR EC-J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018 TAGS: PREL MCAP MARR PL RS SUBJECT: MISSILE DEFENSE AND POLISH MILITARY MODERNIZATION TALKS Classified By: Charge d'affaires Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: A State-DOD delegation led by PM Acting Assistant Secretary Stephen Mull met with Polish counterparts February 29, in Warsaw to propose a way forward on U.S.-Polish collaboration in support of Poland,s defense modernization as related to U.S.-Polish Missile Defense negotiations. The Poles seemed disappointed that USG could not promise a gift of PAC-IIIs, and they were reluctant to express interest in buying them. Nevertheless, while Polish negotiators need to consult with their political leadership before formally responding, they welcomed our proposals for 7 bilateral working groups and a defense-needs requirements study as a constructive way forward. They saw no obstacle to proceeding with Acting U/S John Rood,s visit on March 6. The Poles doubted that the two sides could finalize the draft Declaration on Strategic Cooperation before PM Tusk's visit to Washington March 10, however they said that the PM was ready to make a statement in support of the draft and asked if the President might do the same. End Summary. -------------- U.S. Perspective -------------- ¶2. (C) AA/S Mull opened with a statement to define the context and goals of the Security Cooperation Consultation Group (SCCG). He declared that Poland belongs to an "exclusive group" of allies including Israel, Japan, South Korea and the UK. He recalled that over the past 15 years the U.S. has transferred over $400 million in military assistance to Poland which ranks first in Europe and 6th worldwide for receipt of Foreign Military Finance (FMF) money. However, these huge dollar amounts do not mean that our relationship is based only on transactions: it is in fact based on shared strategic interests. AA/S Mull stressed the importance that the USG placed on all aspects of the relationship, including those that had been ignored in recent years. His delegation provided a clear sign of the USG,s commitment to all aspects of the bilateral relationship with Poland and our support for Polish defense modernization. ¶3. (C) Given our shared strategic interests, AA/S Mull declared that, "We want to propose a way forward to study baseline needs." Working groups would function with due regard for the NATO context and cover: air defense, C4ISR, defense trade, mobility, and financing. They would offer recommendations within six months. Ultimately, this process would require significant Polish investment. In reference to Poland,s oft-stated desire for a legally binding commitment of some sort, AA/S Mull noted that any signed, binding document on defense cooperation would be difficult to conclude in the current political climate and that more formality would actually yield less commitment. -------------- Annex I Assessment -------------- ¶4. (C) After emphasizing that our strong bilateral relationship enabled honest communication, AA/S Mull stated that the needs described in Annex I did not seem to be linked to realistic threats. He continued that Annex I did not appear to give adequate consideration to the impact of an armaments program on the region. Poland,s expression of interest in the MEADS air defense program seemed focused on the past and would require multilateral approval. AA/S Mull also clarified that we do not have Patriots available right now. He added that production timelines along with start-up costs would increase prices and push final delivery years into the future. He asked that we discuss cheaper alternatives. That said, AA/S Mull underscored that, "We are ready to discuss selling Patriots if you are ready to buy them." -------------- The Polish Perspective -------------- ¶5. (C) Poland's lead negotiator, MFA U/S Witold Waszczykowski, thanked A/AS Mull for his candid assessment of Annex I and solicited more input from the U.S. side on what was realistic. Waszczykowski began his own presentation with a concise statement of Poland's top priority, "In our view, the Declaration on Strategic Cooperation is most important, it is where the other lanes of cooperation: BMD, SOFA, and military modernization start." He added that the U.S. non-paper presented by AA/S Mull was a "good start" for further discussion. As usual in MD-related talks with Poland, Polish remarks quickly turned to hardware transfers. Waszczykowski noted that Poland hoped the term "transfer" was not limited to "sale"; he called for "other possibilities." Piotr Pacholski, Head of MoD's Missile Defense Office, supported this call for creative financing and even went so far as to refute the PAC-III cost estimates provided by DOD's J-5 representative. While the J-5 rough order of magnitude (ROM) cost estimate indicated that Poland's Annex I request for three PAC-III battalions could cost from 9-12 billion USD, Pacholski said that his own research based on open source material put the cost at 6-7 billion USD. On the need for PAC-IIIs, Waszczykowski admitted that Poland did not face an "immediate threat" but saw a deepening "deficit of democracy" in Russia which "could yield a hostile neighbor in the near future." -------------- Defense Equities -------------- ¶6. (C) The U.S. delegation reaffirmed that we want a strategic relationship with Poland and intend to make a long-term commitment to assisting Poland with modernizing its armed forces. DOD delegation head DASD Dan Fata made the point that there needs to be a sustained conversation between both parties to reach a common understanding on the threats Poland faces, the capabilities Poland currently possesses to defend against these threats, and the various solutions available to address these threats. Fata made the point that emphasis and effort should be focused on seeing how the U.S. can assist Poland in addressing its short-term air defense and other force modernization needs while at the same time beginning a conversation about Poland's medium- and long-term defense needs, including Patriot systems. DASD Fata also noted that there needs to be further discussion with the Poles about what the Patriot system is and is not, production timeline schedules, costs, and how the Polish defense ministry will go about incorporating the high operations and maintenance, integration, and sustainment costs of a Patriot (and other modern defense systems) into the Polish defense budget. -------------- U.S. Offer: Working Groups, Assessment Study -------------- ¶7. (C) U/S Waszczykowski asked how we might reconcile the proposed timelines with what he understood to be the agreement between FM Sikorski and Secretary Rice to parallel, synchronous progress on the two separate tracks: BMD basing and security cooperation. AA/S Mull underscored our sincere interest in helping Poland to modernize but stressed that such military modernization would require a significant Polish government investment of time and resources. 8.(C) AA/S Mull emphasized the USG,s strong commitment to a collaborative process to support Poland,s defense modernization goals. He made clear that Poland,s goals in Annex I were not realistic given threat analyses and resources and suggested the U.S. and Poland work together to identify Poland,s priority defense requirements. A/AS Mull proposed establishing seven joint U.S.-Polish working groups to focus on: Defense Modernization, including separate groups on air defense (including prospects for PAC-III transfers),ground force needs, C4ISR, and logistics; Intelligence Analysis (to define and refine analysis of security threats to Poland and to factor that into Poland,s defense planning process); Financial Options; and Defense Trade (to resolve defense trade licensing issues). ¶9. (C) The U.S. delegation also offered to conduct an independent baseline study, to be finished in 6 months, to assess Poland,s defense needs and report to the Defense Modernization working group which would define the study,s terms of reference and recommend appropriate follow-up following its completion. The U.S. team offered to seek funding for this study. In response to Polish concern over the lack of general contingency planning in NATO or the U.S. over possible threats to Polish security, AA/S Mull offered to explore organizing tabletop crisis response exercises with the Poles. AA/S Mull emphasized the USG,s strong commitment to a collaborative process to support Poland,s defense modernization goals. -------------- The Way Forward -------------- ¶10. (C) Waszczykowski and Deputy Minister of Defense Komorowski responded positively to AA/S Mull's proposals, but noted that they had to consult this with the Prime Minister and his Council of Ministers before the Government of Poland could offer an official response. Waszczykowski indicated that Acting U/S Rood's proposed visit on March 6 to proceed with BMD negotiations should go forward as planned. The Deputy Foreign Minister also underscored Poland's interest in a concrete deliverable for PM Tusk,s visit to Washington. On the margins, Poland's lead negotiator, Witold Waszczykowski noted that he thinks it unlikely we will come to agreement on the Missile Defense track or the draft Declaration on Strategic Cooperation before PM Tusk's visit to Washington March 10. He said it would help move the process forward for the President to publicly endorse the spirit of the draft Declaration on Strategic Cooperation and our commitment to work on defense modernization during PM Tusk,s visit to Washington. Both sides agreed that pursuing the defense assessment and establishment of the working groups is a priority in order to meet the proposed six-month deadline. AA/S Mull promised Waszczykowski that it would take approximately a month to identify a contractor for a defense assessment. In the meantime, State and DoD will propose U.S. leads for the working group so that they are ready to meet as soon as possible. -------------- Press Statement -------------- ¶11. (U) After the negotiations, Ambassador Mull issued the following press statement. I was very pleased to be in Warsaw today to discuss with Minister Waszczykowski and our other Polish friends the prospects for strengthening the Polish-American partnership in support of Poland's military modernization. America greatly values its bilateral security relationship with Poland and our broader alliance within NATO. Together over the past decade, we have worked closely and effectively to expand the zone of peace and cooperation in Europe; to promote the growth of democratic values in the broader European neighborhood; and, more recently, to protect our North Atlantic community from the grave threat of terror emanating from Afghanistan. As a result, Poland and America are safer. But our work is not yet complete. It is very much in America's interests that Poland continue its contributions to efforts on behalf of global security, and to defend itself against new threats that arise. Our guarantee through NATO of Poland's security is an important element of our support for Poland. We have also been pleased to support Poland's military modernization with more than $400 million in security assistance over the past 15 years. My colleagues and I came to Poland today to chart the future of our continuing support for the modernization of Poland's defense forces. We agreed to focus in particular on Poland's air defense, command and control and mobility needs. While we have much work to do on both sides to clarify the details of how we can work together on these issues, we made a good start today. We want to continue this work. In the final analysis, I assure you that Poland will be able to count on America's continuing strong and substantial support for years to come as it improves its capabilities to defend against our common threats. ¶12. (U) Polish media focused on the military modernization part of AA/S Mull,s press statement. The influential daily "Dziennik" reported that, "The Americans have promised to determine in what way they can support modernization of the Polish armed forces. It concerns mostly air defense and command systems. These negotiations will be conducted simultaneously with the talks on Missile Defense." The local "Zycie Warszawy" wrote that, "The U.S. has proposed to hold talks about the possibility of transferring a few billion dollars worth of military equipment. This equipment is to be transferred to Poland in the form of purchase, lease or rent within a couple of years." ¶13. (U) Delegation List U.S. Delegation AA/S for PM Ambassador Stephen Mull DASD Dan Fata A/DCM, Mary T. Curtin, U.S. Embassy Warsaw Anita Friedt, Office Director, EUR/PRA LtCol Reggie Robinson, Senior Military Advisor, PM Kristin Dowley, Foreign Affairs Officer, PM Richard Dotson, Poland Country Program Director, OSD/P Col Vince O,Conner, Poland Desk, Joint Staff Maj Marek Stobbe, Poland Desk, EUCOM Sue McClure, Poland Country Program Director, DSCA Bernd Micael Arnold, DIA Col Richard Runner, DATT, U.S. Embassy Warsaw LtCol Ray Wojcik, Office of Defense Cooperation, U.S. Embassy Warsaw David T. Morris, Control Officer, U.S. Embassy Warsaw John Gorkowski, Notetaker, U.S. Embassy Warsaw Polish Delegation Witold Waszczykowski, Under Secretary of Foreign Affairs Stanislaw Komorowski, Under Secretary of Defense Robert Kupiecki, MFA Director of Security Policy Piotr Pacholski, Director of the MOD Missile Defense Office Col Tomasz Jakusz, Chief of Air Defense Col Jerzy Grodecki, MOD Budget Department Zbigniew Czech, MFA Department of Treaty Law LtCol Marek Kuszmider, Office of Strategic Planning (P5) LtCol Romuald Maksymiuk, MOD Department of Armaments LtCol Jan Gabrys, Air Force Headquarters LtCol Jozef Kozlowski, Military Intelligence Service Waldemar Pawlicki, Military Counter Intelligence Service Malgorzata Kosiura-Kazmierska, MFA Department of Security Policy Grzegorz Kozlowski, MFA Department of Security Policy Barbara Cwioro, Personal Assistant to U/S Waszczykowski Aleksander Jakimowicz, Interpreter ¶14. (U) This cable was cleared by Ambassador Mull and DASD Fata. CURTIN