MISSILE DEFENSE AND POLISH MILITARY MODERNIZATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000314

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR PM, EUR AND ISN
SECDEF FOR DASD FATA
EUCOM FOR EC-J5

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018
TAGS: PREL MCAP MARR PL RS
SUBJECT: MISSILE DEFENSE AND POLISH MILITARY MODERNIZATION
TALKS

Classified By: Charge d'affaires Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary: A State-DOD delegation led by PM Acting
Assistant Secretary Stephen Mull met with Polish counterparts
February 29, in Warsaw to propose a way forward on
U.S.-Polish collaboration in support of Poland,s defense
modernization as related to U.S.-Polish Missile Defense
negotiations. The Poles seemed disappointed that USG could
not promise a gift of PAC-IIIs, and they were reluctant to
express interest in buying them. Nevertheless, while Polish
negotiators need to consult with their political leadership
before formally responding, they welcomed our proposals for 7
bilateral working groups and a defense-needs requirements
study as a constructive way forward. They saw no obstacle to
proceeding with Acting U/S John Rood,s visit on March 6.
The Poles doubted that the two sides could finalize the draft
Declaration on Strategic Cooperation before PM Tusk's visit
to Washington March 10, however they said that the PM was
ready to make a statement in support of the draft and asked
if the President might do the same. End Summary.

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U.S. Perspective
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2. (C) AA/S Mull opened with a statement to define the
context and goals of the Security Cooperation Consultation
Group (SCCG). He declared that Poland belongs to an
"exclusive group" of allies including Israel, Japan, South
Korea and the UK. He recalled that over the past 15 years
the U.S. has transferred over $400 million in military
assistance to Poland which ranks first in Europe and 6th
worldwide for receipt of Foreign Military Finance (FMF)
money. However, these huge dollar amounts do not mean that
our relationship is based only on transactions: it is in fact
based on shared strategic interests. AA/S Mull stressed the
importance that the USG placed on all aspects of the
relationship, including those that had been ignored in recent
years. His delegation provided a clear sign of the USG,s
commitment to all aspects of the bilateral relationship with
Poland and our support for Polish defense modernization.


3. (C) Given our shared strategic interests, AA/S Mull
declared that, "We want to propose a way forward to study
baseline needs." Working groups would function with due
regard for the NATO context and cover: air defense, C4ISR,
defense trade, mobility, and financing. They would offer
recommendations within six months. Ultimately, this process
would require significant Polish investment. In reference to
Poland,s oft-stated desire for a legally binding commitment
of some sort, AA/S Mull noted that any signed, binding
document on defense cooperation would be difficult to
conclude in the current political climate and that more
formality would actually yield less commitment.

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Annex I Assessment
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4. (C) After emphasizing that our strong bilateral
relationship enabled honest communication, AA/S Mull stated
that the needs described in Annex I did not seem to be linked
to realistic threats. He continued that Annex I did not
appear to give adequate consideration to the impact of an
armaments program on the region. Poland,s expression of
interest in the MEADS air defense program seemed focused on
the past and would require multilateral approval. AA/S Mull
also clarified that we do not have Patriots available right
now. He added that production timelines along with start-up
costs would increase prices and push final delivery years
into the future. He asked that we discuss cheaper
alternatives. That said, AA/S Mull underscored that, "We are
ready to discuss selling Patriots if you are ready to buy
them."

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The Polish Perspective
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5. (C) Poland's lead negotiator, MFA U/S Witold
Waszczykowski, thanked A/AS Mull for his candid assessment of
Annex I and solicited more input from the U.S. side on what
was realistic. Waszczykowski began his own presentation with
a concise statement of Poland's top priority, "In our view,

the Declaration on Strategic Cooperation is most important,
it is where the other lanes of cooperation: BMD, SOFA, and
military modernization start." He added that the U.S.
non-paper presented by AA/S Mull was a "good start" for
further discussion. As usual in MD-related talks with
Poland, Polish remarks quickly turned to hardware transfers.
Waszczykowski noted that Poland hoped the term "transfer" was
not limited to "sale"; he called for "other possibilities."
Piotr Pacholski, Head of MoD's Missile Defense Office,
supported this call for creative financing and even went so
far as to refute the PAC-III cost estimates provided by DOD's
J-5 representative. While the J-5 rough order of magnitude
(ROM) cost estimate indicated that Poland's Annex I request
for three PAC-III battalions could cost from 9-12 billion
USD, Pacholski said that his own research based on open
source material put the cost at 6-7 billion USD. On the need
for PAC-IIIs, Waszczykowski admitted that Poland did not face
an "immediate threat" but saw a deepening "deficit of
democracy" in Russia which "could yield a hostile neighbor in
the near future."

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Defense Equities
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6. (C) The U.S. delegation reaffirmed that we want a
strategic relationship with Poland and intend to make a
long-term commitment to assisting Poland with modernizing its
armed forces. DOD delegation head DASD Dan Fata made the
point that there needs to be a sustained conversation between
both parties to reach a common understanding on the threats
Poland faces, the capabilities Poland currently possesses to
defend against these threats, and the various solutions
available to address these threats. Fata made the point that
emphasis and effort should be focused on seeing how the U.S.
can assist Poland in addressing its short-term air defense
and other force modernization needs while at the same time
beginning a conversation about Poland's medium- and long-term
defense needs, including Patriot systems. DASD Fata also
noted that there needs to be further discussion with the
Poles about what the Patriot system is and is not, production
timeline schedules, costs, and how the Polish defense
ministry will go about incorporating the high operations and
maintenance, integration, and sustainment costs of a Patriot
(and other modern defense systems) into the Polish defense
budget.

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U.S. Offer: Working Groups, Assessment Study
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7. (C) U/S Waszczykowski asked how we might reconcile the
proposed timelines with what he understood to be the
agreement between FM Sikorski and Secretary Rice to parallel,
synchronous progress on the two separate tracks: BMD basing
and security cooperation. AA/S Mull underscored our sincere
interest in helping Poland to modernize but stressed that
such military modernization would require a significant
Polish government investment of time and resources.

8.(C) AA/S Mull emphasized the USG,s strong commitment to a
collaborative process to support Poland,s defense
modernization goals. He made clear that Poland,s goals in
Annex I were not realistic given threat analyses and
resources and suggested the U.S. and Poland work together to
identify Poland,s priority defense requirements. A/AS Mull
proposed establishing seven joint U.S.-Polish working groups
to focus on: Defense Modernization, including separate
groups on air defense (including prospects for PAC-III
transfers),ground force needs, C4ISR, and logistics;
Intelligence Analysis (to define and refine analysis of
security threats to Poland and to factor that into Poland,s
defense planning process); Financial Options; and Defense
Trade (to resolve defense trade licensing issues).


9. (C) The U.S. delegation also offered to conduct an
independent baseline study, to be finished in 6 months, to
assess Poland,s defense needs and report to the Defense
Modernization working group which would define the study,s
terms of reference and recommend appropriate follow-up
following its completion. The U.S. team offered to seek
funding for this study. In response to Polish concern over
the lack of general contingency planning in NATO or the U.S.
over possible threats to Polish security, AA/S Mull offered
to explore organizing tabletop crisis response exercises with

the Poles. AA/S Mull emphasized the USG,s strong commitment
to a collaborative process to support Poland,s defense
modernization goals.

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The Way Forward
--------------


10. (C) Waszczykowski and Deputy Minister of Defense
Komorowski responded positively to AA/S Mull's proposals, but
noted that they had to consult this with the Prime Minister
and his Council of Ministers before the Government of Poland
could offer an official response. Waszczykowski indicated
that Acting U/S Rood's proposed visit on March 6 to proceed
with BMD negotiations should go forward as planned. The
Deputy Foreign Minister also underscored Poland's interest in
a concrete deliverable for PM Tusk,s visit to Washington.
On the margins, Poland's lead negotiator, Witold
Waszczykowski noted that he thinks it unlikely we will come
to agreement on the Missile Defense track or the draft
Declaration on Strategic Cooperation before PM Tusk's visit
to Washington March 10. He said it would help move the
process forward for the President to publicly endorse the
spirit of the draft Declaration on Strategic Cooperation and
our commitment to work on defense modernization during PM
Tusk,s visit to Washington. Both sides agreed that pursuing
the defense assessment and establishment of the working
groups is a priority in order to meet the proposed six-month
deadline. AA/S Mull promised Waszczykowski that it would
take approximately a month to identify a contractor for a
defense assessment. In the meantime, State and DoD will
propose U.S. leads for the working group so that they are
ready to meet as soon as possible.

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Press Statement
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11. (U) After the negotiations, Ambassador Mull issued the
following press statement.

I was very pleased to be in Warsaw today to discuss with
Minister Waszczykowski and our other Polish friends the
prospects for strengthening the Polish-American partnership
in support of Poland's military modernization. America
greatly values its bilateral security relationship with
Poland and our broader alliance within NATO. Together over
the past decade, we have worked closely and effectively to
expand the zone of peace and cooperation in Europe; to
promote the growth of democratic values in the broader
European neighborhood; and, more recently, to protect our
North Atlantic community from the grave threat of terror
emanating from Afghanistan. As a result, Poland and America
are safer.

But our work is not yet complete. It is very much in
America's interests that Poland continue its contributions to
efforts on behalf of global security, and to defend itself
against new threats that arise. Our guarantee through NATO
of Poland's security is an important element of our support
for Poland. We have also been pleased to support Poland's
military modernization with more than $400 million in
security assistance over the past 15 years.

My colleagues and I came to Poland today to chart the future
of our continuing support for the modernization of Poland's
defense forces. We agreed to focus in particular on Poland's
air defense, command and control and mobility needs. While
we have much work to do on both sides to clarify the details
of how we can work together on these issues, we made a good
start today. We want to continue this work. In the final
analysis, I assure you that Poland will be able to count on
America's continuing strong and substantial support for years
to come as it improves its capabilities to defend against our
common threats.


12. (U) Polish media focused on the military modernization
part of AA/S Mull,s press statement. The influential daily
"Dziennik" reported that, "The Americans have promised to
determine in what way they can support modernization of the
Polish armed forces. It concerns mostly air defense and
command systems. These negotiations will be conducted
simultaneously with the talks on Missile Defense." The local
"Zycie Warszawy" wrote that, "The U.S. has proposed to hold
talks about the possibility of transferring a few billion

dollars worth of military equipment. This equipment is to be
transferred to Poland in the form of purchase, lease or rent
within a couple of years."


13. (U) Delegation List

U.S. Delegation

AA/S for PM Ambassador Stephen Mull
DASD Dan Fata
A/DCM, Mary T. Curtin, U.S. Embassy Warsaw
Anita Friedt, Office Director, EUR/PRA
LtCol Reggie Robinson, Senior Military Advisor, PM
Kristin Dowley, Foreign Affairs Officer, PM
Richard Dotson, Poland Country Program Director, OSD/P
Col Vince O,Conner, Poland Desk, Joint Staff
Maj Marek Stobbe, Poland Desk, EUCOM
Sue McClure, Poland Country Program Director, DSCA
Bernd Micael Arnold, DIA
Col Richard Runner, DATT, U.S. Embassy Warsaw
LtCol Ray Wojcik, Office of Defense Cooperation, U.S. Embassy
Warsaw
David T. Morris, Control Officer, U.S. Embassy Warsaw
John Gorkowski, Notetaker, U.S. Embassy Warsaw

Polish Delegation

Witold Waszczykowski, Under Secretary of Foreign Affairs
Stanislaw Komorowski, Under Secretary of Defense
Robert Kupiecki, MFA Director of Security Policy
Piotr Pacholski, Director of the MOD Missile Defense Office
Col Tomasz Jakusz, Chief of Air Defense
Col Jerzy Grodecki, MOD Budget Department
Zbigniew Czech, MFA Department of Treaty Law
LtCol Marek Kuszmider, Office of Strategic Planning (P5)
LtCol Romuald Maksymiuk, MOD Department of Armaments
LtCol Jan Gabrys, Air Force Headquarters
LtCol Jozef Kozlowski, Military Intelligence Service
Waldemar Pawlicki, Military Counter Intelligence Service
Malgorzata Kosiura-Kazmierska, MFA Department of Security
Policy
Grzegorz Kozlowski, MFA Department of Security Policy
Barbara Cwioro, Personal Assistant to U/S Waszczykowski
Aleksander Jakimowicz, Interpreter


14. (U) This cable was cleared by Ambassador Mull and DASD
Fata.
CURTIN