POLISH FM BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON PM'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000245 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2023 TAGS: PL PREL ENRG ETRD RS LI LO SUBJECT: POLISH FM BRIEFS DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON PM'S VISIT TO MOSCOW Classified By: Charge d'affaires Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Summary: Polish PM Donald Tusk's February 8 trip to Moscow accomplished little in concrete terms, but the political symbol of renewed dialogue with the Russians was viewed positively by the majority of Poles. FM Radek Sikorski briefed foreign mission representatives February 19 on Tusk's meetings with President Putin, his presumed successor Deputy PM Medvedev and PM Zubkov, among others. Missile Defense (MD) took center stage at most of the meetings despite Putin's characterization of MD as a foregone conclusion. Tusk refused to accept the permanent stationing of Russian inspectors at the planned MD facility in Poland; Putin countered that "invasive" inspections would be necessary. Russia rejected Polish efforts to promote the Amber gas pipeline via the Baltic States as an alternative to the NordStream pipeline under the Baltic Sea. Poland will consider lifting its veto on the EU negotiating mandate for a proposed update to the EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA),pending resolution of energy security concerns. Discussions also touched on Schengen Zone access for Kaliningrad-border residents, as well as seeking final closure on the 1940 Katyn massacre of Polish soldiers by Soviet NKVD troops. Although opinion polls indicate that the public saw the trip as a success, the presidential chancellery and the Law and Justice (PiS) party criticized the visit. End Summary. Putin: MD a Foregone Conclusion -------------- ¶2. (C) Sikorski recalled that Putin had characterized MD as a foregone conclusion. Instead of trying to stop MD out right, Putin had tried to co-opt it with a proposal to locate "command centers" in Brussels and Moscow. Failing that, Putin had suggested, Russia would insist on an "invasive" inspection regime ideally including Russian personnel permanently stationed at the Polish MD site. Interestingly, Putin had seemed more "exercised" about the Czech radar than the proposed ground-based interceptor base in Poland. Sikorski also noted that, although in his own view MD was "far from a foregone conclusion," Putin's perception of its inevitability offered Poland some political cover in the wake of a pending decision that was sure to alarm Russia. Sikorski said that Putin seemed to think that NATO functioned like the old Warsaw Pact - with Washington instead of Moscow giving the orders. Russia sticking with NordStream -------------- ¶3. (C) Putin had insisted that Russia would continue work on the NordStream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea directly to Germany route, despite Tusk's efforts to reinvigorate the long dormant Amber Route alternative via Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Sikorski found this puzzling, since the Amber Route was more cost efficient and met Russia's criterion that northern gas deliveries transit only EU member states. (Note: Since taking office in November, the Tusk government has been lobbying for the Amber Route as a better alternative to NordStream. End note.) Sikorski wove this together with the cut-off of oil supplies through the Druzba pipeline to the Polish-owned Mazeikiu refinery in Lithuania, accusing Russia of engaging in energy blackmail and trying to isolate Poland. Further Impediments to a PCA -------------- ¶4. (C) "We are on track for lifting the veto of the PCA with Russia," Sikorski opined. He admitted that Russia's ending the meat embargo had made that possible, but he cautioned that there were still impediments to trade. He added that, in order to be acceptable to Poland, the revised PCA still needed an annex in which EU leaders agreed to "take energy security into account." Sikorski reported that Poland had passed draft language on that point to the Slovenian EU Presidency. Schengen/Katyn -------------- ¶5. (C) Sikorski noted Poland's interest in negotiating border agreements with Russia to facilitate travel between the Kaliningrad Oblast and neighboring Polish territory, particularly for the local residents on both sides of the border. "We don't want the border to be impermeable," he remarked in reference to the Schengen Zone. With regard to Russia's responsibility for the Katyn massacre - a longtime sore point between Poland and the Putin government - Sikorski declared that Russia had to "deal with its totalitarian past WARSAW 00000245 002 OF 002 in order to become a normal nation." Putin's characterization of Katyn as "Stalinist crimes" had been a welcome change from previous Russian denials of accountability. (N.B. Putin had on several occasions in the past repudiated former President Yeltsin's apology for Katyn.) ¶6. (C) Comment: Tusk's visit to Moscow has become the target of political squabbling with the opposition PiS party of President Lech Kaczynski and his brother, former PM and PiS Chairman Jarek Kaczynski. The latter Kaczynski characterized the visit as a "complete failure," complaining that Tusk was ignoring Ukraine, Georgia and other Russian neighbors in an effort to placate Moscow. Sikorski's efforts to paint the visit as a mixed bag fit into the GOP's efforts to prove that they are dealing with all capitals - Moscow, Berlin and even Washington - in a more even-handed, business-like fashion than their predecessors. End Comment. CURTIN