POLISH MFA ON MANPADS: RUSSIA CAPITALIZING ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001435

SIPDIS

EUR/PRA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2018
TAGS: ETTC MCAP PREL PTER MASS GG RS PL
SUBJECT: POLISH MFA ON MANPADS: RUSSIA CAPITALIZING ON
GEORGIAN INCOMPETENCE

REF: A. STATE 128096

B. MOSCOW 3475

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Polish MFA attributed Russia's alleged
October discovery of Polish-made GROM MANPADS in Chechnya
(originally delivered to Tbilisi) to Georgia's unprofessional
handling of the weapons. The Russians, in turn, capitalized
on the discovery to "discredit Poland and Georgia." The MFA
speculated that Georgians did not deliberately transfer the
MANPADS to Chechnya but mishandled them during the August
conflict, allowing Russia possibly to "stage a discovery in
Chechnya." An MFA official described the Russian allegations
as a "provocation" but noted that Moscow did not raise the
issue during bilateral export control talks December 9, which
he said went "surprisingly well." END SUMMARY.


2. (C) An MFA Security Department official told us he took
part in a Polish fact-finding mission to Georgia at the end
of November, which concluded that the Georgians had "majorly
(messed) up" in the handling of Polish-made GROMs. In
response to Ref A demarche regarding alleged Russian
discoveries of GROMs in Chechnya, Maciej Falkowski of the
MFA's Security Policy Department told us December 16 that the
Poles had been working with the Georgians before the August
conflict to ensure that the 100 GROM rockets and 30 launchers
were stored in compliance with Wassenaar commitments. When
war broke out, however, the Georgians "completely lost their
heads," threw the GROMS on trucks, and transported them to
the battlefield. According to Falkowski, MANPADS were
distributed not only to the minimally trained Georgian
military, but also to untrained police and civil defense
personnel. He said that in several cases the Georgians
rendered the rockets inoperable through misuse. Falkowski
said the main lesson for Poland was that countries receiving
Polish arms should first be trained how to use them.
Nevertheless, Falkowski boasted with a slight smile that the
MANPADS "successfully targeted 8-9 flights, despite the
incompetent handling."


3. (C) Falkowski emphasized that Russia was attempting to use
the incident to "compromise the Georgians" and to discourage
Poland from supplying arms to Georgia in the future. The
Polish fact-finding mission was able to track down 21 of 30
launchers and 66 of 100 rockets. The Georgian government
claimed that an additional 16 rockets had been disabled and
sunk in the Kodori River in Abkhazia. Other MANPADS had
"likely been abandoned on the spot" as Russian forces
advanced. Falkowski said he had no hard intelligence but
speculated that "Chechnyan members of Russia's 58th brigade
probably stumbled upon the MANPADS and shipped them to
Chechnya," allowing the Russians to stage a discovery there.
He noted that the Russians had claimed in several fora that
Poland had not complied with its Wassenaar commitments.


4. (C) The Russians, however, did not raise the MANPADS
incident during bilateral export control talks that took
place December 9 in Moscow in a surprisingly pleasant
atmosphere, according to Falkowski. He said Russian
negotiators were amenable to revoking 90 percent of the
licensing agreements related to obsolete military equipment
and shifting discussions to the technical level on the
remaining 10 percent related to current manufacturing.
Russian technical experts are expected to visit Poland in
February 2009 to determine what equipment is based on Russian
technology. Falkowski was quick to note that the Polish side
cQ prove that the GROM is based solely on Polish technology
and components.


ASHE