POLAND UNLIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE FINANCIALLY TO

S E C R E T WARSAW 001418 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA (IRWIN/LAWSON) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PTER UNSC LE SY PL SUBJECT: POLAND UNLIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE FINANCIALLY TO LEBANON SPECIAL TRIBUNAL REF: STATE 129978 Classified By: Political Counselor F. Daniel Sainz for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S) The GoP is leery about taking on additional financial commitments in the Middle East, including support for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). In addition to the possibility of cuts in the GoP's overall foreign affairs budget next year, Stanislaw Gulinski of the MFA's Africa and Middle East Department maintained that the Polish public had become less supportive of further engagement in the region. Gulinski cited Warsaw's continuing involvement in the UNIFIL mission (approximately 800 troops),its recently concluded five-year mission in Iraq, and its presence in Afghanistan. The combined cost of these activities had escalated, forcing the GoP to question whether it could take on additional regional commitments. Gulinski said a financial contribution for the STL was unlikely, but Warsaw might be able to support the Tribunal with legal expertise. ¶2. (C) Gulinski also speculated that other potential donors might be hesitant about making financial commitments until the results of next spring's elections in Lebanon become clear. He asserted that Hizballah stood a real chance of solidifying its political influence, which could scare off Western donors, in particular. ASHE