PSL LEADERS SEE FUTURE CLOSELY TIED TO CIVIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001129

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CE AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV EFIN PL
SUBJECT: PSL LEADERS SEE FUTURE CLOSELY TIED TO CIVIC
PLATFORM

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Polish People's Party (PSL) has largely
linked its short-term future to the success of its senior
coalition partner, Civic Platform (PO). According to PSL's
Parliamentary Caucus Chair Stanislaw Zelichowski and PSL
Deputy Party Chairman Jan Bury (also a Deputy Treasury
Minister),a cooperative atmosphere prevails between the two
parties within the Government and parliament. According to
Zelichowski, PSL will likely support the presumed PO
candidate in 2010 presidential elections, PM Donald Tusk,
rather than field its own candidate. Both officials were
optimistic that the coalition government will run its full
four-year term, but did not rule out the possibility that
parliamentary elections might be held six months early
(Spring 2011) to avoid disrupting Poland's EU Presidency in
the second half of the year. Both predicted an easy
re-election for party chair (and Deputy PM) Waldemar Pawlak
at the party's congress on November 8. The perks of power
help explain PSL satisfaction with its more pro-business
coalition partner, as does the electoral math -- if early
elections were held, the PSL might not meet the 5 percent
threshold for parliamentary representation. END SUMMARY.

COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COALITION PARTNERS


2. (C) In recent discussions with the Embassy, key leaders of
the Polish People's Party (PSL) expressed satisfaction with
the party's relationship with its senior coalition partner,
Civic Platform. According to PSL Deputy Party Chairman (and
Deputy Treasury Minister) Jan Bury, a cooperative atmosphere
prevails within the Government, especially in the Council of
Ministers. Bury, who occasionally attends in Treasury
Minister Grad's stead, said PM Tusk chairs productive and
"effective" meetings. Tusk rarely calls for a show of hands,
Bury said, but instead strives to build consensus between the
two parties. Tusk instructs ministers to identify
commonalities first and then works to hammer out compromises
on key issues. When it is not possible to reach a consensus,
Bury said, Tusk refers legislation back to the Council's
permanent committee or to the responsible ministries.

DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON ECONOMIC ISSUES


3. (C) Stanislaw Zelichowski, who chairs PSL's caucus in the
Sejm, described a similarly cooperative relationship between
the two parties in the Sejm, saying that there are only about
ten or so issues on which the two parties had not yet been
able to reach agreement. This is not surprising, Zelichowski
said, given PO's "free market orientation" and PSL's
long-standing support for social welfare programs.
Zelichowski said PSL does not share PO's optimism that the
Polish population will be ready for euro accession by 2011,
but does not plan to voice such skepticism publicly. While
PSL might disagree on the timing, Bury said, they accept that
Poland will join the euro zone at some point in the future.

PSL FUNCTIONS AS INTERMEDIARY WITH OPPOSITION


4. (C) Zelichowski said PSL functions as the intermediary
between the coalition and the opposition Law and Justice
(PiS) party: "PiS does not talk to PO and PO does not talk
to PiS. When PiS wants to talk, they come to us." PSL has
also played a key role in outreach to SLD because of the
"strong relationship" between the two parties. Bury said he
was mystified by recent meetings between PiS Chairman (and
former PM) Jaroslaw Kaczynski and SLD Chairman Grzegorz
Napieralski. Zelichowski said that the move was confusing
for SLD voters, whose political positions strongly diverge
from those of PiS, and resulted in a significant drop in
public support for the party (recent polling places SLD's
support at around 6 percent). Both Zelichowski and Bury
stated that SLD's leadership now realizes the move was a
mistake, one which they have attempted to correct by coming
out in support of PO's media reform law. (COMMENT: On the
basis of recent public comments by Deputy Sejm Speaker
Jaroslaw Kalinowski, it is not entirely clear that PSL fully
supports PO's draft media reform law and, to a certain
extent, contradicts Bury and Zelichowski's insistence that PO
strives for consensus, rather than simply forcing through key
pieces of legislation. END COMMENT.)

PSL PLANS TO BACK TUSK FOR PRESIDENT


5. (C) Zelichowski said PSL does not currently plan to run
its own candidate in the 2010 Polish presidential elections,
but instead intends to support the likely PO candidate, PM
Donald Tusk. Zelichowski discounted recent media speculation
-- fueled primarily by statements from PiS politicians --

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that PO might call for early elections in 2010. He predicted
the coalition will last through the current term, but did not
preclude the possibility that parliamentary elections might
occur six months early (perhaps March 2011) to give the
incoming government sufficient time to prepare for Poland's
EU Presidency in the second half of the year. Zelichowski
speculated that PO and PSL might even form an electoral
coalition for the 2011 parliamentary elections. (COMMENT:
Zelichowski's views on prospects for future cooperation with
PO may in large part stem from practical considerations. In
recent weeks, PSL has consistently polled just below the
parliamentary threshold of 5 percent. END COMMENT.)

PSL WILL SUPPORT PO'S "LEGISLATIVE MARATHON"


6. (C) Zelichowski told us PO's plan to accelerate the
parliamentary agenda by pushing through 140 pieces of
legislation in October was, to a large extent, "media
fireworks," but said PSL deputies plan to support the
initiative. Asked about a potential PiS boycott and the
prospect that President Lech Kaczynski would veto a large
number of the bills, Zelichowski said PiS has more to lose
than gain by vetoing the legislation "If they do," he said,
"it will be clear which parties are serious and which are
not." (COMMENT: PiS contacts have similarly dismissed the
"legislative marathon," noting that approximately 80 of the
bills simply amend existing Polish legislation to conform to
recent EU directives and legislation. END COMMENT.)

PAWLAK WILL BE RE-ELECTED AT PARTY CONGRESS


7. (C) Turning to anticipated outcomes of PSL's November 9
party congress, both Bury and Zelichowski predicted that
party chair (and Deputy PM) Waldemar Pawlak would not be
seriously threatened. In contrast to media predictions that
Minister of Agriculture Marek Sawicki would have a strong
change of winning if he decided to challenge Pawlak, Bury
said PSL members by and large feel it does not make sense to
change course, both in terms of leadership and the party
platform. (COMMENT: In a separate conversation, Kalinowski
told EconCouns that Sawicki is a technocrat, not a
politician, implying if not directly stating that Sawicki is
no threat to Pawlak. END COMMENT.) While the party is
technically obligated to put someone up against Pawlak, Bury
insisted it has been difficult to find someone interested in
being a candidate. Bury said he, Sawicki, Zelichowski, and
Kalinowski had all declined. In the end, Zelichowski said,
someone will run, but Pawlak will not be seriously threatened.

COMMENT


8. (C) PSL officials have gone out of their way in public
statements to express satisfaction with their role in the
coalition and to emphasize the party's merits as a strong
coalition partner. In part, this is making a virtue out of
necessity, since the PSL might not muster the votes to pass
the 5 percent threshold for representation in parliament if
the coalition fell apart, forcing early elections. PSL
officials also enjoy the perks of power and the ability to
reward key supporters with government positions. So the
left-leaning PSL publicly downplays its opposition to PO
plans for accelerated privatization and greater farmer
payments for social security and health insurance. For its
part, the PO has criticized but done little to correct widely
reported nepotism within PSL-led government offices.
ASHE