POLAND CONCERNED ABOUT VENEZUELA AND BOLIVIA; SEES

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001105

SIPDIS

EUR/CE FOR PIERANGELO AND MORRIS; WHA/AND FOR ROCHA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2018
TAGS: ASEC KDEM PGOV PREL ENRG BL VE PL
SUBJECT: POLAND CONCERNED ABOUT VENEZUELA AND BOLIVIA; SEES
VENEZUELA AS POTENTIAL ENERGY SUPPLIER

REF: STATE 99473

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The GoP is concerned about the political
situation in Bolivia and Venezuela -- particularly after the
expulsions of the U.S. Ambassadors to both countries. MFA
Deputy Director Daniel Gromann indicated that Poland supports
the EU position of "constructive engagement" with both
countries. While Poland has few political or economic ties
to Bolivia, the Polish government sees Venezuela as a
possible means to diversify its energy supply away from
Russia and is concerned about the possibility of U.S.
sanctions against Caracas.

Venezuela


2. (C) MFA Deputy Director for Latin American Affairs Daniel
Gromann told us the GoP is watching the increasingly
authoritarian behavior of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
with considerable concern. In response to reftel demarche,
Gromann commented that Venezuela should learn from Poland's
disastrous experience with a command economy. He said that
part of Poland's concern about Chavez stems from the fact
that Warsaw is seeking to diversify its sources of energy
away from Russia -- particularly in the face of Russian
aggression against its neighbors -- and considers Venezuela
to be a possible alternative. At the end of July 2008, the
Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Economy sent a business
delegation led by deputy ministers Ryszard Schnepf and Rafal
Baniak to Venezuela to scope out possible business
cooperation. Chavez's behavior and a harsh response from the
international community could negatively impact Poland's
diversification strategy, according to Gromann.

Bolivia


3. (C) Gromann indicated that Poland has a negligible
economic or political stake in Bolivia and, therefore, little
leverage in the country. Last year's bilateral trade was
about 2 million dollars. Poland does not have an Embassy in
La Paz.

Constructive Engagement


4. (C) Gromann said that Poland firmly supports EU policy to
engage constructively with Venezuela and Bolivia. He said
that isolating the two countries would probably push them
down a more radical and dangerous path. Gromann queried
whether the U.S. government is considering sanctions against
Venezuela.

Law Enforcement


5. (C) Regarding law enforcement and counternarcotics,
Gromann said that Poland has no bilateral police cooperation
arrangements with Venezuela or Bolivia. He was unsure
whether there is cooperation under the EU framework.

Comment


6. (C) Our conversation with Gromann suggests that Poland
sees Venezuela -- notwithstanding its increasingly
authoritarian ruler -- as a potentially more palatable
supplier of energy than Russia. As a result, Warsaw probably
will continue to seek constructive engagement with Caracas
and seek to keep its budding commercial relationship with
Venezuela contained from the possible repercussions of the
deteriorating political situation.
ASHE