POLAND CONCERNED ABOUT VENEZUELA AND BOLIVIA; SEES

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001105 SIPDIS EUR/CE FOR PIERANGELO AND MORRIS; WHA/AND FOR ROCHA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2018 TAGS: ASEC KDEM PGOV PREL ENRG BL VE PL SUBJECT: POLAND CONCERNED ABOUT VENEZUELA AND BOLIVIA; SEES VENEZUELA AS POTENTIAL ENERGY SUPPLIER REF: STATE 99473 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAN SAINZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The GoP is concerned about the political situation in Bolivia and Venezuela -- particularly after the expulsions of the U.S. Ambassadors to both countries. MFA Deputy Director Daniel Gromann indicated that Poland supports the EU position of "constructive engagement" with both countries. While Poland has few political or economic ties to Bolivia, the Polish government sees Venezuela as a possible means to diversify its energy supply away from Russia and is concerned about the possibility of U.S. sanctions against Caracas. Venezuela ¶2. (C) MFA Deputy Director for Latin American Affairs Daniel Gromann told us the GoP is watching the increasingly authoritarian behavior of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez with considerable concern. In response to reftel demarche, Gromann commented that Venezuela should learn from Poland's disastrous experience with a command economy. He said that part of Poland's concern about Chavez stems from the fact that Warsaw is seeking to diversify its sources of energy away from Russia -- particularly in the face of Russian aggression against its neighbors -- and considers Venezuela to be a possible alternative. At the end of July 2008, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Economy sent a business delegation led by deputy ministers Ryszard Schnepf and Rafal Baniak to Venezuela to scope out possible business cooperation. Chavez's behavior and a harsh response from the international community could negatively impact Poland's diversification strategy, according to Gromann. Bolivia ¶3. (C) Gromann indicated that Poland has a negligible economic or political stake in Bolivia and, therefore, little leverage in the country. Last year's bilateral trade was about 2 million dollars. Poland does not have an Embassy in La Paz. Constructive Engagement ¶4. (C) Gromann said that Poland firmly supports EU policy to engage constructively with Venezuela and Bolivia. He said that isolating the two countries would probably push them down a more radical and dangerous path. Gromann queried whether the U.S. government is considering sanctions against Venezuela. Law Enforcement ¶5. (C) Regarding law enforcement and counternarcotics, Gromann said that Poland has no bilateral police cooperation arrangements with Venezuela or Bolivia. He was unsure whether there is cooperation under the EU framework. Comment ¶6. (C) Our conversation with Gromann suggests that Poland sees Venezuela -- notwithstanding its increasingly authoritarian ruler -- as a potentially more palatable supplier of energy than Russia. As a result, Warsaw probably will continue to seek constructive engagement with Caracas and seek to keep its budding commercial relationship with Venezuela contained from the possible repercussions of the deteriorating political situation. ASHE