BELARUS/POLAND - FM SIKORSKI TO ANNOUNCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001053

SIPDIS

STATE FOR MORRIS, PIERANGELO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV BO PL
SUBJECT: BELARUS/POLAND - FM SIKORSKI TO ANNOUNCE
INCENTIVES FOR "BETTER" ELECTIONS

Classified By: DCM QUANRUD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA officials told AmEmbassy Minsk Charge
Moore that Belarusian authorities are "terrified" about the
implications that Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia has for Belarus. FM Sikorski reportedly sees recent
developments in Belarus, including the release of political
prisoners and improved treatment of Polish minorities, as
positive signals that Lukashenka might be ready to bargain
with the EU in order to counterbalance the Kremlin's growing
shadow. Sikorski plans to meet his Belarusian counterpart in
a border town in Belarus o/a September 12, and to announce
that the EU might consider lifting the visa ban or reducing
visa fees depending on the outcome of this month's
parliamentary elections. GOP officials were pleased with the
discussion on Belarus at the September 5-6 Gymnich meeting
and are working to beef up GAERC conclusions on Belarus. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) AmEmbassy Minsk Charge Jonathan Moore and AmEmbassy
Warsaw Poloff met September 8 with MFA Director for Eastern
Policy Jaroslaw Bratkiewicz and his deputy, Mariusz
Maszkiewicz, to exchange views on recent developments in
Belarus, EU and U.S. sanctions, and the upcoming Belarusian
parliamentary elections. Moore described the current state
of play with respect to the release of political prisoners
and the Belarusian MFA's positive reaction to the U.S.
decision to suspend temporarily sanctions on two Belarusian
firms.

TIME TO SET ASIDE "SCHOLASTIC DEBATE"


3. (C) Bratkiewicz said Russia's invasion of Georgia and its
subsequent recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia had left
post-Soviet countries, including Belarus, "terrified" about
the prospect of once again becoming full-fledged client
states of the Kremlin. He agreed that the fact that Belarus
has not recognized the breakaway republics speaks volumes,
insisting that now is the time to set aside the "scholastic
debate" in NATO and the EU between dialogue and isolation.
Instead, it is essential to bolster the EU's relationship
with Belarus, as well as Ukraine and Georgia.

LUKASHENKA BENT ON MAINTAINING INDEPENDENCE


4. (C) Bratkiewicz said Poland has seen positive signs that
Lukashenka is ready to trigger a round of bargaining with the
EU, primarily to counterbalance "the Kremlin's growing
shadow, which has the potential to eclipse Belarusian
independence." Maintaining Belarusian independence rests at
the center of Lukashenka's endeavors, notwithstanding his
frequent "gestures" to Russia. While Lukashenka may be a
dictator, he is still the only viable guarantor of Belarusian
independence. The opposition is simply not ready to mobilize
society. Western outreach will be the key to underpinning
Belarus' sense of independence. Russia's influence on
Belarus is a reality, but Lukashenka seems tacitly inclined
to push Belarus closer to the West as a counterbalance.

SIKORSKI PLANS TO SEND CLEAR SIGNAL BEFORE ELECTIONS


5. (C) Bratkiewicz said the GOP is "wavering" on the
prospects for this month's parliamentary elections. While
there is no doubt that the elections will not be democratic,
the GOP is hopeful that there will be "elements of
rapprochement" in the outcome. It is important to give
clear-cut signals in the coming weeks that if Belarus
fulfills its obligations and the elections are "better than
before" -- both in terms of process and results -- the EU
may/may be willing to relax some sanctions, e.g. selectively
lifting the visa ban or reducing visa fees. Although "we
would be playing a tainted game," Bratkiewicz noted, there do
not seem to be other feasible means to draw Belarus closer.
Bratkiewicz said FM Sikorski plans to meet with GOB FM
Martynov o/a September 12 (in advance of the GAERC) in a
Belarusian border town to broadcast his intentions to support
relaxed sanctions as a reward for improvements in the
electoral process. Bratkiewicz also speculated that
Ukrainian President Yushchenko could be another effective
channel for encouraging Lukashenka.


6. (C) Bratkiewicz noted that some EU Member States are more
prone to "courageous steps" than others and lamented the lack
of interest under the Portuguese Presidency. The French
similarly have not been engaged and do not seem to have any
new ideas. Bratkiewicz expressed disappointment with the
first draft of GAERC conclusions on Belarus and offered
assurances that the GOP would work to strengthen the text.
Bratkiewicz expressed optimism based on "good signals" from
discussion at the September 5-6 Gymnich meeting.

WARSAW 00001053 002 OF 002




7. (C) COMMENT. Even before the Georgia crisis, the Poles
were looking to ease sanctions on Belarus and hold bilateral
meetings above the expert level. Warsaw has expressed
somewhat conflicting reasons for the shift, arguing
previously that Belarus was too interested in military
cooperation with Russia and currently that Belarus is
desperate to avoid the bear's embrace. In remarks to
reporters, Radoslaw Sikorski complained about the lack of MFA
engagement on Belarus when he became Foreign Minister, and
pointed to the importance of protecting the Polish minority
and advancing Poland's economic interests in Belarus.
However complex their reasoning, the GoP has consistently
emphasized the significance of Belarusian interest in
improving relations with Poland, even though Poland applied
the most stringent bilateral sanctions in Europe and led the
campaign for EU sanctions. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Charge Moore did not clear this message.
ASHE