POLAND: SECOND SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000102 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR PM, NEA, EUR E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2018 TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS IZ PL SUBJECT: POLAND: SECOND SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS REF: A. SECSTATE 04865 ¶B. WARSAW 2188 Classified By: DCM Kenneth M. Hillas for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) In accordance with ref A, poloff engaged Polish diplomats, Juliusz Gojlo, Iraq Desk, and Piotr Erenfeicht, NATO Operations Action Officer, on the future of Polish engagement in Iraq, its legal basis and the possibility of a Defense Cooperation Agreement. The Polish government has declared its intent to withdraw all 900 Polish troops participating in the Multinational Corp Iraq (MNC-I) by October 31, 2008. Detailed planning for this movement is already underway, with appropriate U.S. authorities involved. However, Polish diplomats report that this exit will not include Polish participation in the NATO Training Mission in Iraq (NTM-I). They expect that Polish participation in NTM-I will grow and suggest that an "invitation" from the Government of Iraq to NATO would provide sufficient legal basis absent a United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR). ¶2. (C) The 10th rotation (TOA planned for January/February 2008) will remain at approximately 900 troops and will continue the stabilization mission with the goal of turning its sector over to Iraqi control as soon as possible. PM Tusk and MinDef Klich have both stated that withdrawal of the Polish contingent will be coordinated with the U.S. and other coalition partners to ensure successful transfer to Iraqi control; however, the actual date to begin withdrawal of Polish troops has not yet been established. Polish officials remain emphatic that the withdrawal of Polish troops must be complete by 31 October 2008. ¶3. (C) Poland will remain engaged in the NTM-I even after it departs MND-CS. According to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Poland will increase its NTM-I troop strength from 2 to 20 in 2008. In 2009, MFA anticipates "even more" Polish participation. MFA understands that a Chapter VII United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) now provides legal basis for the NTM-I deployment and that Iraq does not intend to renew the current UNSCR. From Poland's point of view, an invitation from the Government of Iraq to NATO would offer sufficient legal basis to sustain NTM-I and allow Polish participation. ¶4. (C) MFA lacked interest in a Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with Iraq. In Poland, international "agreements" require parliamentary approval, so a DCA could take months to clear legislative hurdles. Moreover, in domestic politics, the Prime Minister's promise to pull out of Iraq by October 31 has played very well. Consequently, public debate over a DCA might play poorly. Instead, MFA expressed a clear preference to remain engaged under the NATO rubric; an option already proven palatable to the Polish public. ASHE