BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 28, 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000997

AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 28, 2008


1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by EMBASSY
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

International Relations
--------------

- Lukashenka Notes Positive Changes in EU-Belarus Relations (para.
2)
- Lukashenko Signed Two Edicts in Support of Cooperation with the
European Commission (para. 3)

Health
--------------

- 9,423 Officially Recorded HIV-Positive People in Belarus (para.
4)

Civil Society
--------------

- Lukashenka on Criminal Code (para. 5)
- Two Opposition Papers Allowed Distribution Via State-Owned
Networks (para. 6)
- Key Suspect in Disappearance of Opposition Politicians
Hospitalized (para. 7)


Domestic Economy
--------------

- National Bank Takes Steps to Limit Imports (para. 8)
- Lukashenka Maintains His Economic Policies Still Efficient,
Suggests Controversial Methods to Address Challenges (para. 9)

International Trade
--------------

- Russian Ambassador on Status of Russia-Belarus Relations (para.
10)

Quote of the Week (para. 11)
--------------

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International Relations
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2. Lukashenka Notes Positive Changes in EU-Belarus Relations

In a November 24 interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP),
Belarusian President Lukashenka noted "positive changes" in
Belarus-EU relations. He praised his "thoughtful" multilateral
foreign policy, aimed at supporting the country's economic
sustainability. Lukashenka asserted that Belarus has no intent and
resources to address any super strategic global concerns: its
ultimate goal it to have good relations with Russia, Europe and the
U.S. and all three should realize that and share the same interest.


3. Lukashenko Signed Two Edicts in Support of Cooperation with the
European Commission

Presidential press service reported that Lukashenka signed edicts
633 and 634 on November 20 to facilitate cooperation with the
European Commission. Edict 633 approves the conclusion of the
framework agreement with the European Commission that would
determine the status and conditions of EU technical assistance
programs in energy, customs infrastructure, illegal migration,
international crime, environment and other areas. Edict 634 adapts
the national law to the EU-Belarus agreement on the establishment of
the European Commission representative office in Belarus. The edict
allegedly seeks to provide favorable conditions for Office's
operations in the country.

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Health
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4. 9,423 Officially Recorded HIV-Positive People in Belarus

Health Ministry official Lyudmila Naroychik told the news conference
in Minsk on November 25 that there are 9,423 officially recorded
HIV-positive people in Belarus, about 0.1 percent of the population.
The number of such people is growing year after year. Most of them
are aged 15-29. The largest number of HIV-positive people reside in
Gomel district: 4,937. The official also noted a steady growth of
HIV prevalence among women.

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Civil Society

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5. Lukashenka on Criminal Code

In his AFP interview, Lukashenka also said the regime would be ready
to remove the Article on Libel from Belarus' Criminal Code if the EU
and the U.S. want that and are "ready to come up with something in
return." He also reiterated Belarus has no political prisoners
because it has no notion of "political crimes" in its Criminal Code.
Finally, he pledged he would run for president again if his health
permits and people feel good about him.


6. Two Opposition Papers Allowed Distribution via State-Owned
Networks

Chief editor of "Narodnaya Volya" Yosif Seredich told the Belapan
news agency that he had signed agreements with the network of news
kiosks (Belsoyuzpechat) and the mail distribution network
(Belpochta). Both businesses are state-owned and have denied
opposition press any distribution ever since 2005. Narodnaya Volya
also secured an agreement with the state-owned printing press.
Another opposition newspaper, "Nasha Niva", has so far signed an
agreement only with Belpochta.


7. Key Suspect in Disappearance of Opposition Politicians
Hospitalized

According to some unofficial sources, Interior Ministry Colonel
Dmitriy Pavlichenko, a key suspect in the 1999-2000 disappearances
of opposition politicians, had a stroke on November 25 and has been
hospitalized. Earlier this month he received a new assignment in
the Interior Ministry. Pavlichenko still remains on the EU and the
U.S. travel ban lists over suspicions of his involvement in the
disappearances.

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Domestic Economy
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8. National Bank Takes Steps to Limit Imports

According to the media, Belarus' National Bank issued resolution
165, which tightens regulations governing import payments.
Effective November 11, advance import payments will not be allowed
without a prior approval of the corresponding government agency,
which, in turn, has to secure a clearance of a Deputy Prime
Minister. The new regulations are applicable to all businesses
regardless of their ownership status.


9. Lukashenka Maintains His Economic Policies Still Efficient,
Suggests Controversial Methods to Address Challenges

According to press reports, Lukashenka spoke highly about the
advantages of Belarus' economic development model, which, he
believes, efficiently mitigates the effects of the global financial
crisis. Speaking to local government officials in Vitebsk November
25, he nonetheless acknowledged that Belarusian businesses have
significant difficulties trying to export their products and
services. He instructed the GOB to keep ruble strong, reduce
imports, and preserve social benefits and jobs. He also required to
liberalize the economy and give more rights to business people but
did not elaborate on that much.

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Foreign Trade
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10. Russian Ambassador Debriefs on the Status of Russia-Belarus
Relations

In an interview with Interfax news agency Russian Ambassador to
Belarus Aleksandr Surikov said that due to decreasing world natural
gas prices Belarus will most likely have to pay the equivalent of
USD 170-175 per one thousand cubic meters. He also said Belarus
will receive the second part of Russia's USD 2 billion loan in late
February 2009 provided it completes the transition to Russian ruble
for Russian energy payments. He added that both countries will have
to synchronize the devaluation of their national currencies.
Finally, Belarus and Russia may sign a framework agreement on the
single anti-aircraft/anti-missile system, which allegedly does not
provide for the deployment of additional weapons including missiles,
on Belarusian territory.

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Quote of the Week
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11. Concluding his meeting with government officials in Vitebsk
region November 25, Lukashenka said: "Securing people's rights to
receive adequate salaries, live freely and tell what they think:
that is the main task of the president. All of us should always

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remember that".

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