BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 28, 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000997 AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 28, 2008 ¶1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy Minsk. TABLE OF CONTENTS International Relations -------------- - Lukashenka Notes Positive Changes in EU-Belarus Relations (para. 2) - Lukashenko Signed Two Edicts in Support of Cooperation with the European Commission (para. 3) Health -------------- - 9,423 Officially Recorded HIV-Positive People in Belarus (para. 4) Civil Society -------------- - Lukashenka on Criminal Code (para. 5) - Two Opposition Papers Allowed Distribution Via State-Owned Networks (para. 6) - Key Suspect in Disappearance of Opposition Politicians Hospitalized (para. 7) Domestic Economy -------------- - National Bank Takes Steps to Limit Imports (para. 8) - Lukashenka Maintains His Economic Policies Still Efficient, Suggests Controversial Methods to Address Challenges (para. 9) International Trade -------------- - Russian Ambassador on Status of Russia-Belarus Relations (para. 10) Quote of the Week (para. 11) -------------- -------------- International Relations -------------- ¶2. Lukashenka Notes Positive Changes in EU-Belarus Relations In a November 24 interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP), Belarusian President Lukashenka noted "positive changes" in Belarus-EU relations. He praised his "thoughtful" multilateral foreign policy, aimed at supporting the country's economic sustainability. Lukashenka asserted that Belarus has no intent and resources to address any super strategic global concerns: its ultimate goal it to have good relations with Russia, Europe and the U.S. and all three should realize that and share the same interest. ¶3. Lukashenko Signed Two Edicts in Support of Cooperation with the European Commission Presidential press service reported that Lukashenka signed edicts 633 and 634 on November 20 to facilitate cooperation with the European Commission. Edict 633 approves the conclusion of the framework agreement with the European Commission that would determine the status and conditions of EU technical assistance programs in energy, customs infrastructure, illegal migration, international crime, environment and other areas. Edict 634 adapts �A;the national law to the EU-Belarus agreement on the establishment of the European Commission representative office in Belarus. The edict allegedly seeks to provide favorable conditions for Office's operations in the country. -------------- Health -------------- ¶4. 9,423 Officially Recorded HIV-Positive People in Belarus Health Ministry official Lyudmila Naroychik told the news conference in Minsk on November 25 that there are 9,423 officially recorded HIV-positive people in Belarus, about 0.1 percent of the population. The number of such people is growing year after year. Most of them are aged 15-29. The largest number of HIV-positive people reside in Gomel district: 4,937. The official also noted a steady growth of HIV prevalence among women. -------------- Civil Society VILNIUS 00000997 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. Lukashenka on Criminal Code In his AFP interview, Lukashenka also said the regime would be ready to remove the Article on Libel from Belarus' Criminal Code if the EU and the U.S. want that and are "ready to come up with something in return." He also reiterated Belarus has no political prisoners because it has no notion of "political crimes" in its Criminal Code. Finally, he pledged he would run for president again if his health permits and people feel good about him. ¶6. Two Opposition Papers Allowed Distribution via State-Owned Networks Chief editor of "Narodnaya Volya" Yosif Seredich told the Belapan news agency that he had signed agreements with the network of news kiosks (Belsoyuzpechat) and the mail distribution network (Belpochta). Both businesses are state-owned and have denied opposition press any distribution ever since 2005. Narodnaya Volya also secured an agreement with the state-owned printing press. Another opposition newspaper, "Nasha Niva", has so far signed an agreement only with Belpochta. ¶7. Key Suspect in Disappearance of Opposition Politicians Hospitalized According to some unofficial sources, Interior Ministry Colonel Dmitriy Pavlichenko, a key suspect in the 1999-2000 disappearances of opposition politicians, had a stroke on November 25 and has been hospitalized. Earlier this month he received a new assignment in the Interior Ministry. Pavlichenko still remains on the EU and the U.S. travel ban lists over suspicions of his involvement in the disappearances. -------------- Domestic Economy -------------- ¶8. National Bank Takes Steps to Limit Imports According to the media, Belarus' National Bank issued resolution 165, which tightens regulations governing import payments. Effective November 11, advance import payments will not be allowed without a prior approval of the corresponding government agency, which, in turn, has to secure a clearance of a Deputy Prime Minister. The new regulations are applicable to all businesses regardless of their ownership status. ¶9. Lukashenka Maintains His Economic Policies Still Efficient, Suggests Controversial Methods to Address Challenges According to press reports, Lukashenka spoke highly about the advantages of Belarus' economic development model, which, he believes, efficiently mitigates the effects of the global financial crisis. Speaking to local government officials in Vitebsk November 25, he nonetheless acknowledged that Belarusian businesses have significant difficulties trying to export their products and services. He instructed the GOB to keep ruble strong, reduce imports, and preserve social benefits and jobs. He also required to liberalize the economy and give more rights to business people but did not elaborate on that much. -------------- Foreign Trade -------------- ¶10. Russian Ambassador Debriefs on the Status of Russia-Belarus Relations In an interview with Interfax news agency Russian Ambassador to Belarus Aleksandr Surikov said that due to decreasing world natural gas prices Belarus will most likely have to pay the equivalent of USD 170-175 per one thousand cubic meters. He also said Belarus will receive the second part of Russia's USD 2 billion loan in late February 2009 provided it completes the transition to Russian ruble for Russian energy payments. He added that both countries will have to synchronize the devaluation of their national currencies. Finally, Belarus and Russia may sign a framework agreement on the single anti-aircraft/anti-missile system, which allegedly does not provide for the deployment of additional weapons including missiles, on Belarusian territory. -------------- Quote of the Week -------------- ¶11. Concluding his meeting with government officials in Vitebsk region November 25, Lukashenka said: "Securing people's rights to receive adequate salaries, live freely and tell what they think: that is the main task of the president. All of us should always VILNIUS 00000997 003 OF 003 remember that". MOORE CLOUD