BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 21, 2008

UNCLAS VILNIUS 000981

AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 21, 2008


1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by EMBASSY
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

International Relations
--------------

- MFA Says Lukashenka's Comment on Iskander Missiles Misinterpreted
(para. 2)

Civil Society
--------------

- Lawyer Unable to See Hunger-Striking Barazenka in Pretrial
Detention Center (para. 3)
- Judges Involved in Corruption Schemes Still Working (para. 4)
- NGO Denied Registration in 2008 Due to "Inadequate Application
Efforts" (para. 5)
- Popular Front Denied Permission to Commemorate 1920 Anti-Bolshevik
Uprising in Slutsk (para. 6)
- Militia Disperses Protests in Central Minsk on Solidarity Day,
Makes No Detentions (para. 7)

Domestic Economy
--------------

- The National Bank Will Not Accelerate Privatization of State-Owned
Banks (para. 8)

International Trade
--------------

- Anti-dumping Investigation May Damage Belarusian Pipe Mills (para.
9)
- Government Pleased with Preliminary Results of London Investment
Forum (para. 10)
- Foreign Trade Deficit Through September Above USD 2.4 Billion
(para. 11)
- Latvian Prime-Minister to Visit Belarus in 2009 (para. 12)

Quote of the Week (para. 13)
--------------

--------------
International Relations
--------------


2. MFA Says Lukashenka's Comment on Iskander Missiles
Misinterpreted

Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Popov stated on November 16 that
Lukashenka's November 11 comment to the Wall Street Journal that on
surface-to-surface medium-range Iskander missiles for Belarus was
misinterpreted. Popov said Lukashenka did not say that Belarus
would deploy Iskander missiles as a part of Russia's efforts to
oppose the deployment of the U.S. anti-defense system in Europe.
According to Popov, Lukashenka said only that funds permitting,
Belarus will replace existing missile systems with Iskander missiles
regardless of Russian plans.

--------------
Civil Society
--------------


3. Lawyer Unable to See Hunger-Striking Aleksander Barazenka in
Pretrial Detention Center

Alexander Barazenka's lawyer was unable to see him on November 19 in
pretrial detention center in Minsk because no formal permission was
granted by the judge. While his lawyer plans to observe all
formalities, Alexander started a hunger strike on November 17 to
require his immediate release. Criminal charges have been brought
against him for violating public order during the mass protest in
January 2008 in defense of entrepreneurs' rights.


4. Judges Involved in Corruption Schemes Still Working

According to the Belapan news agency, three judges of the Tsentralny
district court in Minsk still perform their duties after Lukashenka
personally blamed them last week for issuing unfair verdicts in
favor of corrupt senior Prosecutor's office employees. Supreme
Court officials told Belapan that they cannot be dismissed until
after Lukashenka signs an edict to this effect. In the meantime,
some of the verdicts cited have already been annulled. All three
are on the visa ban list for their unfair decisions regarding
democratic activists.


5. NGOs Denied Registration in 2008 Due to Inadequate Application
Efforts
According to information posted on the website of Belarus' Justice
Ministry (MOJ),the principal reasons for denying registration to
NGOs in 2008 were problems with application paperwork and poor
pre-registration efforts. According to the MOJ, in many instances,
application papers were forged, as some reported participants of
founding conferences did not actually attend them, although their
names and signatures were included on application documents. These
allegations allegedly applied often to pro-democratic NGOs.


6. Popular Front Denied Permission to Commemorate 1920
Anti-Bolshevik Uprising in Slutsk

The Belarusian Popular Front failed to secure permission to
commemorate on November 23 the anniversary of the anti-communist
uprising suppressed by the Bolsheviks in late 1920. The chairman of
the Slutsk district government (Minsk region) reportedly did not
allow a mass to take place in central Slutsk, although such
commemorations were often held in previous years. BPF activists
nonetheless intend to appeal the denial and plan to proceed with
preparations.


7. Militia Disperses Protests in Central Minsk on Solidarity Day,
Makes No Detentions

Several opposition youth groups commemorated the disappearances of
democratic leaders on Solidarity Day November 16 at various
locations in central Minsk. Police pushed protesters away from
Jakub Kolas and Oktyabrskaya Squares and dispersed them as they
attempted to approach a pretrial detention center to demand the
release of Aleksander Barazenka. Similar protests were reported in
Soligorsk, Mozyr, Kobrin and several other cities. No detentions
were reported.

Domestic Economy
--------------


8. The National Bank Will Not Accelerate Privatization of
State-Owned Banks

The Head of the National Bank's information office Anatoly Drozdov
told a news conference November 17 that the Bank has no intention to
accelerate privatization of the country's four largest state-owned
banks. Twenty percent stocks in Belarusbank, Belagroprombank,
Belpromstroibank and Belinvestbank will only be sold to strategic
investors who can attract resources several times higher than the
amount paid for the stock.

--------------
Foreign Trade and Investment
--------------


9. Anti-dumping Investigation May Damage Belarusian Pipe Mills

According to press reports, the European Commission launched on
November 19 an anti-dumping investigation with regard to pipe mills
in Turkey, Ukraine and Belarus that supply products to the EU
markets. The verdict is expected to be announced in about nine
months and may cause serious economic damage to three Belarusian
pipe mills.


10. Government Pleased With Preliminary Results of London Investment
Forum

On November 19, Prime Minister Sergei Sidorsky announced at a news
conference in London that preliminary results of the Investment
Forum were far beyond his expectations. The actual number of
participants was double the government's initial expectations.
Sidorsky stated that participants "felt the spirit of changes in
Belarus" and would like to invest. The Prime Minister specifically
mentioned some unnamed investors from the Arab world as well as the
U.S. Caterpillar, which allegedly would like to sell its products in
Belarus.


11. Foreign Trade Deficit Through September Above USD 2.4 Billion

According to official statistics issued on November 17, Belarus'
foreign trade deficit through September was 2.474 billion, one
billion more than the GOB planned for 2008. In particular, the
commodity trade deficit was USD 3.738 billion, while trade in
services had a surplus of USD 1.263 billion.


12. Latvian Prime Minister to Visit Belarus in 2009

Latvia's Ambassador to Belarus Maira Mora told a news conference in
Minsk on November 20 that the Latvian Prime Minister intends to
visit Belarus during 2009. The main objective will be discussion of
electric energy supplies to Latvia as this will be a critical issue
for the country following the closure of the Ignalina nuclear power
plant in Lithuania scheduled for 2009. Belarusian and Latvian
premiers discussed the issue preliminarily on November 12 during the
Belarusian Prime Minister's visit to Riga.

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Quote of the Week
--------------


13. President Lukashenka greeted the official Belarusian Union of
Journalists on the Union's 50th anniversary and welcomed its
members' constructive approach to forming public opinion in Belarus.
Lukashenka said:

"Unfortunately, not all mass media work for the benefit of the
Belarusian people and seek to strengthen a young sovereign state...
It is critical in a contemporary world to provide balanced and
precise information and fully realize the responsibility you take
for each written or spoken word."

MILLER
CLOUD