Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08VILNIUS960
2008-11-07 10:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Vilnius
Cable title:
BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 7, 2008
how-toVZCZCXRO5492 RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHVL #0960/01 3121051 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 071051Z NOV 08 FM AMEMBASSY VILNIUS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3057 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000960
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 7, 2008
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000960
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 7, 2008
1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by EMBASSY
Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Civil Society
--------------
- Opposition Protests Travel Ban (para. 2)
- Opposition Activist Fined (para. 3)
- Opposition Commemorates Ancestors, Stalin Terror Victims (para.
4)
- Kurapaty Vandals Detained (para. 5)
- "Extremist" Independent Newspaper Acquitted (para. 6)
Domestic Economy
--------------
- GOB Secures Bank Deposits (para. 7)
- Foreign Debt Down, Internal Debt Up (para. 8)
International Trade
--------------
- Commodity Trade Deficit on the Rise (para. 9)
- Belarusian Potash Company to Cut Exports (para. 10)
Quote of the Week (para. 11)
--------------
--------------
Civil Society
--------------
2. Opposition Protests Travel Ban
On November 6, approximately ten opposition and youth leaders and
activists marched in central Minsk to protest the
politically-motivated travel ban and delivered an appeal to the
Interior Ministry and Prosecutor General. Police violently forced
the activists away from the ministries and reportedly beat Malady
Front leader Zmitser Dashkevich. United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy
Lebedko noted that he expects law enforcers to announce the official
grounds for their travel ban and infringement on their freedom of
movement.
3. Opposition Activist Fined
Drogichin authorities fined November 3 local Belarusian Popular
Front office head Vladimir Kazeko USD 330. Police searched Kazeko's
residence and confiscated 2,000 copies of the unregistered
independent newspaper, Tut I Tsyaper, on October 31. The activist
was charged with illegal distribution of printed media.
4. Opposition Commemorates Ancestors, Stalin Terror Victims
On November 2, over 1,500 activists of the Belarusian Popular Front
and the Conservative Christian Party marched in northern Minsk to
mark Dzyady, Ancestors' Remembrance Day. Two separate rallies,
authorized by Minsk city authorities, concluded with flower-laying
at the Stalin-era mass murder Kurapaty site. Police closely
observed the demonstrations but did not interfere. However, as they
attempted to join the rally, sixty-five Maladaya Belarus youth group
activists were taken off a Minsk-bound bus in Mogilyov on November
2. Two Malady Front activists, Yuri Bogdanovich and Semyon
Bylinskiy, were reportedly beaten upon their return to Baranovichy
after the rallies in Minsk. The activists were detained and charged
with using obscenities and resisting the police. Both were released
November 3 and will stand trial.
5. Kurapaty Vandals Detained
Conservative Christian Party activists guarding Kurapaty detained
two vandals at the site on November 1. Police were called and
transported the two drunken youngsters to the local precinct. They
were later released, and after a preliminary investigation, police
will announce whether a criminal case will be opened. Civil society
representatives expressed hope that the vandals will be held
criminally liable, particularly in the wake of a numerous
uninvestigated attacks on the site.
6. "Extremist" Independent Newspaper Acquitted
On November 5, a Grodno district court dismissed a lawsuit that had
outlawed the unregistered independent newspaper, Svaboda, as
"extremist." The judge returned the case to a lower court due to
"technical errors." The Belarusian Association of Journalists
welcomed the decision and advocated against the arbitrary
enforcement of criminal penalties on independent journalists and
civil society.
VILNIUS 00000960 002 OF 002
--------------
Domestic Economy
--------------
7. GOB Secures Bank Deposits
On November 4, President Lukashenka signed a decree that the state
will guarantee an unlimited 100 percent return of retail bank
accounts and deposits of citizens and legal permanent residents of
Belarus. By law, the vast majority of banks in the country will be
covered, and all deposits shall be returned should the National Bank
revoke a bank's license. The decree also excludes the need to
declare deposits, withdrawals of deposits, and transfers of funds
from foreign bank accounts and deposited in Belarusian banks. It
also establishes an agency to oversee the guarantee of compensation
of bank deposits of individuals in case of failure. Banks will no
longer report transactions over USD 32,900 for individuals or over
USD 330,000 for entrepreneurs and enterprises.
8. Foreign Debt Down, Internal Debt Up
The Finance Ministry reported on November 3 that Belarus' state
foreign debt went down 0.1 percent on the month in September and
reached USD 2.278 billion as of October 1. In January-September, a
3.9-percent decrease in the foreign debt was recorded. Belarus has
borrowed the most from Russia, Germany, the U.S., and the World
Bank. Meanwhile, its internal debt grew by 4.2 percent on the month
in September to USD 2.994 billion as of October 1.
--------------
International Trade
--------------
9. Commodity Trade Deficit on the Rise
On October 31, the National Statistics Committee reported that
Belarus' foreign commodity trade deficit amounted to USD 4.081
billion in January-September 2008 vs. USD 2.741 billion in the same
period in 2007. Exports increased by 56.1 percent and imports
increased by 55.1 percent year-on-year in January-September 2008.
Russia has remained Belarus' key trade partner, with which Belarus
recorded a trade deficit of USD 10.622 billion for the same period.
10. Belarusian Potash Company to Cut Exports
The Belarusian Potash Company (BPC),the exclusive exporter of
Belaruskaliy and Russia's Uralkaliy-manufactured potash fertilizers,
announced on November 3 that it will reduce its exports by 700,000
tons in the fourth quarter of 2008. The cuts are attributed to the
global financial crisis, reduced loans, and solvent demands from
farmers around the world. Meanwhile, the BPC asserted that no
contracts had been terminated, and an additional 400,000 tons of
fertilizer will be supplied to the domestic market.
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
11. Appointing GOB officials and CEOs of state-owned enterprises on
October 31, President Lukashenka admitted that the global financial
crisis will affect Belarusian economy, saying, "only strong
[countries] will benefit from [the global financial crisis]. It is
a test, an exam for the economy, government, and management of
enterprises." Lukashenka reiterated that "we must achieve projected
goals. Look for [new] markets and promote your products, but do not
wait for the Russians to come and buy everything up. You need to
act promptly."
MILLER
CLOUD
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - November 7, 2008
1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by EMBASSY
Minsk.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Civil Society
--------------
- Opposition Protests Travel Ban (para. 2)
- Opposition Activist Fined (para. 3)
- Opposition Commemorates Ancestors, Stalin Terror Victims (para.
4)
- Kurapaty Vandals Detained (para. 5)
- "Extremist" Independent Newspaper Acquitted (para. 6)
Domestic Economy
--------------
- GOB Secures Bank Deposits (para. 7)
- Foreign Debt Down, Internal Debt Up (para. 8)
International Trade
--------------
- Commodity Trade Deficit on the Rise (para. 9)
- Belarusian Potash Company to Cut Exports (para. 10)
Quote of the Week (para. 11)
--------------
--------------
Civil Society
--------------
2. Opposition Protests Travel Ban
On November 6, approximately ten opposition and youth leaders and
activists marched in central Minsk to protest the
politically-motivated travel ban and delivered an appeal to the
Interior Ministry and Prosecutor General. Police violently forced
the activists away from the ministries and reportedly beat Malady
Front leader Zmitser Dashkevich. United Civic Party Chair Anatoliy
Lebedko noted that he expects law enforcers to announce the official
grounds for their travel ban and infringement on their freedom of
movement.
3. Opposition Activist Fined
Drogichin authorities fined November 3 local Belarusian Popular
Front office head Vladimir Kazeko USD 330. Police searched Kazeko's
residence and confiscated 2,000 copies of the unregistered
independent newspaper, Tut I Tsyaper, on October 31. The activist
was charged with illegal distribution of printed media.
4. Opposition Commemorates Ancestors, Stalin Terror Victims
On November 2, over 1,500 activists of the Belarusian Popular Front
and the Conservative Christian Party marched in northern Minsk to
mark Dzyady, Ancestors' Remembrance Day. Two separate rallies,
authorized by Minsk city authorities, concluded with flower-laying
at the Stalin-era mass murder Kurapaty site. Police closely
observed the demonstrations but did not interfere. However, as they
attempted to join the rally, sixty-five Maladaya Belarus youth group
activists were taken off a Minsk-bound bus in Mogilyov on November
2. Two Malady Front activists, Yuri Bogdanovich and Semyon
Bylinskiy, were reportedly beaten upon their return to Baranovichy
after the rallies in Minsk. The activists were detained and charged
with using obscenities and resisting the police. Both were released
November 3 and will stand trial.
5. Kurapaty Vandals Detained
Conservative Christian Party activists guarding Kurapaty detained
two vandals at the site on November 1. Police were called and
transported the two drunken youngsters to the local precinct. They
were later released, and after a preliminary investigation, police
will announce whether a criminal case will be opened. Civil society
representatives expressed hope that the vandals will be held
criminally liable, particularly in the wake of a numerous
uninvestigated attacks on the site.
6. "Extremist" Independent Newspaper Acquitted
On November 5, a Grodno district court dismissed a lawsuit that had
outlawed the unregistered independent newspaper, Svaboda, as
"extremist." The judge returned the case to a lower court due to
"technical errors." The Belarusian Association of Journalists
welcomed the decision and advocated against the arbitrary
enforcement of criminal penalties on independent journalists and
civil society.
VILNIUS 00000960 002 OF 002
--------------
Domestic Economy
--------------
7. GOB Secures Bank Deposits
On November 4, President Lukashenka signed a decree that the state
will guarantee an unlimited 100 percent return of retail bank
accounts and deposits of citizens and legal permanent residents of
Belarus. By law, the vast majority of banks in the country will be
covered, and all deposits shall be returned should the National Bank
revoke a bank's license. The decree also excludes the need to
declare deposits, withdrawals of deposits, and transfers of funds
from foreign bank accounts and deposited in Belarusian banks. It
also establishes an agency to oversee the guarantee of compensation
of bank deposits of individuals in case of failure. Banks will no
longer report transactions over USD 32,900 for individuals or over
USD 330,000 for entrepreneurs and enterprises.
8. Foreign Debt Down, Internal Debt Up
The Finance Ministry reported on November 3 that Belarus' state
foreign debt went down 0.1 percent on the month in September and
reached USD 2.278 billion as of October 1. In January-September, a
3.9-percent decrease in the foreign debt was recorded. Belarus has
borrowed the most from Russia, Germany, the U.S., and the World
Bank. Meanwhile, its internal debt grew by 4.2 percent on the month
in September to USD 2.994 billion as of October 1.
--------------
International Trade
--------------
9. Commodity Trade Deficit on the Rise
On October 31, the National Statistics Committee reported that
Belarus' foreign commodity trade deficit amounted to USD 4.081
billion in January-September 2008 vs. USD 2.741 billion in the same
period in 2007. Exports increased by 56.1 percent and imports
increased by 55.1 percent year-on-year in January-September 2008.
Russia has remained Belarus' key trade partner, with which Belarus
recorded a trade deficit of USD 10.622 billion for the same period.
10. Belarusian Potash Company to Cut Exports
The Belarusian Potash Company (BPC),the exclusive exporter of
Belaruskaliy and Russia's Uralkaliy-manufactured potash fertilizers,
announced on November 3 that it will reduce its exports by 700,000
tons in the fourth quarter of 2008. The cuts are attributed to the
global financial crisis, reduced loans, and solvent demands from
farmers around the world. Meanwhile, the BPC asserted that no
contracts had been terminated, and an additional 400,000 tons of
fertilizer will be supplied to the domestic market.
--------------
Quote of the Week
--------------
11. Appointing GOB officials and CEOs of state-owned enterprises on
October 31, President Lukashenka admitted that the global financial
crisis will affect Belarusian economy, saying, "only strong
[countries] will benefit from [the global financial crisis]. It is
a test, an exam for the economy, government, and management of
enterprises." Lukashenka reiterated that "we must achieve projected
goals. Look for [new] markets and promote your products, but do not
wait for the Russians to come and buy everything up. You need to
act promptly."
MILLER
CLOUD