LITHUANIA, THE EU, AND RUSSIA: POSSIBLE VETO ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000903 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV EU GG LH SUBJECT: LITHUANIA, THE EU, AND RUSSIA: POSSIBLE VETO ON BUSINESS-AS-USUAL Classified By: Charge Damian R. Leader for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Lithuanian MFA U/S Zygimantas Pavilionis told Charge October 23 that he is very concerned that the EU is going to cave on normalizing relations with Russia in the coming weeks. Given pressure from France and Germany (along with southern tier countries),the November 10 GAERC will likely decide that Russia's partial compliance with agreements concerning Georgia is enough to "forgive Russia" and resume post-PCA negotiations; this despite the high-level EU decision September 1 that Russian forces must return to pre-August 7 positions. The GOL believes that an EU decision to normalize relations with Russia will both split the EU and split the EU from the United States. If internal EU negotiations play out as he fears, Pavilionis said Lithuania will exercise its veto, fully aware this will bring down the wrath of the western Europeans on Lithuania. ¶2. (C) Pavilionis said he thinks the UK is the key to preventing this showdown, and he asked the Charge for USG help in keeping the UK from joining the emerging EU consensus on Russia-Georgia. He provided a non-paper (faxed to EUR/NB) with arguments the USG might be able to use with the UK. He further expressed his desire to go to Washington himself, pre-GAERC, to discuss this proposed cooperation with EUR A/S Fried. Pavilionis is hoping for senior level USG intervention with UK ForSec Miliband and PolDir Lyall Grant. He said he already discussed the issue with Lyall Grant October 22, and will do so again in London October 29. ¶3. (C) Pavilionis said he thought a much better outcome would be possible under the Czech presidency next year, when Russia might be more willing to comply with its promises. To give up the post-PCA card now, he said, is to yield an important lever in influencing Russian behavior in Georgia. LEADER