LITHUANIA'S SEIMAS ELECTIONS: THE QUIET CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000850

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV LH
SUBJECT: LITHUANIA'S SEIMAS ELECTIONS: THE QUIET CAMPAIGN

REF: A. VILNIUS 763

B. VILNIUS 646

Classified By: Ambassador John A. Cloud for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is the third in a series of reports on the
upcoming parliamentary elections in Lithuania.


2. (C) SUMMARY. Lithuania will hold parliamentary elections
on October 12, with run-off elections on October 26. No
party is likely to win more than a third of the parliament's
141 seats. A new government likely will be formed in
mid-November. The election campaign has been subdued and
most observers expect a turnout between 40 and 50 percent,
although we have heard predictions as low as 38 percent.
Good weather, concern about inflation, and fears of a
financial crisis might combine to boost turnout, which will
likely be a key factor. Low turnout would favor the
Conservatives; high turnout would favor the two populist
parties, Labor and Order and Justice. End summary.

The Quiet Campaign
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3. (U) The new election campaign law that prohibits TV and
radio advertising (ref A),combined with already existing
regulations, has made for a subdued campaign. In the two
week run-up to the elections there are weekly television
debates arranged by the Election Commission and there are a
plethora of print ads and direct mailings, but overall the
campaign is quiet. Advertising in public spaces is limited
to temporary plywood signboards in designated places.
Signboards are plastered with small posters from a variety of
parties, most of which are not visible from passing cars.


4. (U) Changes to the election laws already appear to be
having a negative impact on voter turnout. Whereas seven
percent of voters voted by mail (absentee) in the last
parliamentary election, this option has been eliminated.
Instead, early voting began on October 8 to accommodate those
who, on election day, will be away from the locality where
they vote. Although 16,000 people went to vote that day,
this amounts to only .6 percent of registered voters. In
conversations with average Lithuanians, most people say they
will vote, and fears of a financial crisis and general
frustration with high inflation may boost turnout, favoring
populists. But history would instruct otherwise. Turnout
for the last parliamentary election was 46.8 percent. For
the 2007 municipal elections, the figure was 41 percent. One
political insider predicted to us it could be as low as 38
percent this time around. Low turnout would favor the
Conservatives, whose diehard members most certainly will
vote.

Four parties continue to lead opinion polls
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5. (U) Four parties have led the polls for the last six
months: two "traditional" parties, the Conservatives
(Homeland Union) and the Social Democrats; and two "populist"
parties, Labor, and Order and Justice (ref B). The polls,
however, vary greatly and are not reliable. In addition to
the considerable disparity among the four leading polling
companies, the process of polling itself is facing
difficulties because of increasing wages and a tight labor
market, despite the recent economic slowdown. Vladas Gaidys,
director of the polling company Vilmorus, told us that it is
increasingly difficult to hire interviewers. Political
analyst and Kaunas Technical University professor Algis
Krupavicius told us that one polling company needed ten days,
instead of the usual two or three, to complete its monthly
poll.


6. (U) Of the four leading parties, the opposition
Conservatives and opposition Order and Justice look poised
for a strong showing. The Conservatives have a committed
base and are the traditional opponent of the ruling Social
Democrats. Order and Justice has run the strongest campaign,
especially in rural areas and small cities, and attracted the
most funding -- 2.8 million litas (1.1 million USD) versus
1.7 million litas (680,000 USD) for the Conservatives, the
next highest fund-raisers. Order and Justice also benefited
from a feature film based on the life of its chairman,
impeached ex-President Rolandas Paksas. It was shown for
free in movie theaters and broadcast on a national television
network. The Election Commission fined the film's director
for failure to disclose his funding sources, but ruled that
there were no grounds to prevent its airing on television.


Second and Third Tier Parties
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7. (U) In addition to the Social Democrats and Labor -- who
are weaker than they have been in the past, but will still be
represented in the next parliament -- three other parties
might fare well. The Peasants' Party, led by Agriculture
Minister Kazimiera Prunskiene, has a small but solid rural
base and Prunskiene is an established force in national
politics. The Liberal and Center Union, led by former
Vilnius Mayor Arturas Zuokas, has run a sophisticated
campaign with automated phone calls and an American PR
consultant. The biggest wild card is the National Revival
party, led by comedian Arunas Valinskas, whose stated goal is
to draw votes away from the populists, in particular Order
and Justice.


8. (U) There are two parties on the cusp of crossing the
five percent threshold for party list seats and who also have
may win single mandate seats: the left-leaning, current
coalition partner Social Liberals (Chaired by Arturas
Paulauskas) and the center-right Liberal Movement. Two
parties that will rely on single mandate districts to get
seats are the newly formed, far left Front, whose chair is
former Social Democrat Algirdas Paleckis and the Polish
Electoral Action party, which usually wins one or two seats.

Coalition: More than a month away
--------------


9. (U) The October 12 elections will decide about 80 of the
141 seats of the Parliament -- the 70 MPs selected by party
list and a few single mandate district seats. The October 26
run-off election will determine the remaining 60 or so single
mandate seats where a candidate failed to get over 50 percent
of the vote in the first round. Thus, the coalition
formation process will remain muddy for some time.


10. (C) Based on conversations with party leaders, it is
clear that it would be no party leader's first choice to work
with the Paksas-led Order and Justice Party. Even Peasants'
Party chair Prunskiene, who is a frequent and sometimes
fawning guest at Order and Justice party congresses, noted
that it would be "uncomfortable" to work with Paksas.
Conservative Party Chair Andrius Kubilius has Qso told us
that Paksas is the least desirable of partners. But it will
all come down to arithmetic, and, although we believe it
highly unlikely that the Conservatives would go into
coalition with Order and Justice, we would not rule anything
out.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Barring an unforeseen landslide by Order and Justice
or the Conservatives, the October 12 elections will not shed
much light on who will be part of a new ruling coalition.
The ideological malleability of most political parties means
that virtually any combination is possible.
CLOUD