BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - September 26, 2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VILNIUS 000807

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - September 26, 2008


1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
--------------

- Belarusian Christian Democrat Detained at Border (para. 2)
- Opposition Activist Banned from Foreign Travel (para. 3)
- Opposition Hopeful Assaulted (para. 4)
- Malady Front Leader Survives Car Crash (para. 5)
- Opposition Youth Sentenced to Jail (para. 6)
- Independent Newspaper Called Extremist (para. 7)
- Central Election Commission Disapproves Withdrawals (para. 8)

Domestic Economy
--------------

- National Bank Claims Belarus Unharmed by the World Financial
Crisis (para. 9)
- 26 Percent of Belarusians are Receiving Pensions (para. 10)
- Belarus Ranks 151st in Transparency International Annual
Corruption Rating (para. 11)

Foreign Trade
--------------

- Belarus' Trade with Russia on the Rise (and so is the Trade
Deficit) (para. 12)
- Seasonal Tariffs on Imported Vegetables Sky-Rocketed from 50 to
180 Percent (para. 13)

Quote of the Week (para. 14)
--------------

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Civil Society
--------------


2. Belarusian Christian Democrat Detained at Border

Belarusian border guards briefly detained Belarusian Christian
Democracy Party (BCDP) Co-Chair Aleksey Shein on September 19. The
guards searched Shein's personal belongings but did not confiscate
anything. Shein maintained that the GOB has continuously hindered
the BCDP's contacts with foreign partners and its international
activities.


3. Opposition Activist Banned from Foreign Travel

On September 24, Belarusian border guards took Sergey Vysotskiy,
leader of the unregistered Party of Freedom, off a Kyiv-bound train.
They detained him for two hours citing no official reasons or
charges. Vysotskiy stated that he would appeal his travel ban to
court.


4. Opposition Hopeful Assaulted

An unidentified person in street clothes attacked opposition
parliamentary hopeful Andrey Levinov in Vitebsk on September 22. As
soon as Levinov stepped out of his apartment, he was brutally pushed
from behind and pressed against the wall. Levinov reportedly
suffered a minor head injury. He linked the assault with his
political activities; nevertheless, he committed to continue running
for the polls.


5. Malady Front Leader Survives Car Crash

Malady Front Leader Artur Finkevich and his two colleagues survived
a serious car crash on the way from Grodno to Minsk on September 20.
The vehicle overturned three times at the speed of 100 km per hour
after a wheel came off. Finkevich stressed the car had been
properly maintained and checked shortly before the trip. He linked
the accident with elevated pressure from the GOB on opposition youth
saying their work could "bother" certain GOB elements.


6. Opposition Youth Sentenced to Jail

A Gomel district court sentenced on September 24 the opposition
youth activist Andrey Tenyuta to seven days in jail and a fine of
USD 330. Police arrested Tenyuta on September 23 when he was about
to board a Minsk-bound train and charged him with using obscenities
and minor hooliganism. The judge did not announce the time of the
hearing, and neither Tenyuta's family nor human rights advocates
were able to attend.


7. Independent Newspaper Called Extremist

An Ivye district court ruled on September 19 that the unregistered
independent newspaper "Freedom" contained materials of "extremist
nature" and should be outlawed. This precedent provides BKGB

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officers legal grounds for confiscation of copies and prosecution of
persons in possession of copies. The Grodno office of the
Belarusian KGB filed the case following numerous seizures of the
newspaper issues from local opposition activists.


8. Central Election Commission Disapproves Withdrawals

On September 24, Central Election Commission Chairwoman Lidiya
Yermoshina expressed criticism regarding 10 parliamentary hopefuls
who withdrew from the race. Yermoshina said they "harmed" the
electoral campaign and let their supporters down. She announced
that as of September 24, there were 265 candidates still running for
the polls. According to the United Democratic Forces (UDF) press
center, 66 UDF candidates remain in the race.

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Domestic Economy
--------------


9. National Bank Claims Belarus Unharmed by the World Financial
Crisis

On September 22, Belarus' National Bank issued a press-release
stating that the current turbulence in world financial markets poses
no serious threat to the country's economy and banking sector.
According to the announcement, the National Bank does not plan to
react to the situation in any way, since the country's major
economic and financial partners as well as Belarus' own economy and
banking system are sufficiently stable and sound. Belarus
reportedly possesses a well-established system to monitor
international financial markets that mitigates emerging domestic and
external risks. In contrast, independent observers believe that
Belarus stayed relatively unharmed because the country's stocks are
not traded internationally.


10. 26 Percent of Belarusians are Receiving Pensions

According to the information provided to Ecopress news agency by
Belarus' Labor Ministry September 24, as of July 1, the number of
retired Belarusians is about 26 percent of the population (2.5
million out of 9.7 million). According to the country's labor code,
men and women retire at the age of 60 and 55 respectively. The
average life expectancy for men is 64.5 years and 76.2 years for
women. The government spends 11 percent of the country's GDP to pay
minimal pensions to eligible Belarusian citizens.


11. Belarus Ranks 151 in Transparency International Annual
Corruption Rating

Ecopress news agency reported on September 23 that according to the
latest Transparency International data, Belarus ranks 151st on the
list of 180 countries rated for corruption. Belarus' corruption
index is 2. Ukraine's and Russia's indices are 2.5 and 2.1 and
these countries' ranks 134 and 147 respectively.

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Foreign Trade
--------------


12. Belarus' Trade with Russia on the Rise (and so is the Trade
Deficit)

An anonymous Economy Ministry official told the Ecopress news agency
September 25 that Russia-Belarus trade through July grew on the year
by 60 percent to USD 21.5 billion. Belarus' exports increased by
40.4 percent to USD 6.5 billion and imports rose 71 percent to USD
15 billion. Rapidly growing prices for oil, oil products and
natural gas -- Russia's main exports to Belarus -- made the biggest
contribution to the country's USD 1.7 billion plus deficit in
foreign trade in goods and services that the GOB has routinely
failed to curb this year.


13. Seasonal Tariffs on Imported Vegetables Sky-Rocketed 50 to 180
Percent

According to various news agencies, President Lukashenka issued
decree 523 September 18 introducing or greatly increasing seasonal
tariffs on imported cucumbers (50 percent),tomatoes (50 percent),
onions (180 percent),cabbages (75 percent),carrots (120 percent)
and beetroots (150 percent). The edict came into effect September
22 and was allegedly intended to "safeguard the interests of
Belarusian producers", whose produce was often more expensive than
imported items.

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Quote of the Week
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14. Answering questions of "Financial Times" and "Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung" reporters September 18, President Lukashenka
said:


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"Yet, I do not have any plans to resign. It is not because, as you
probably think, I want to be in power for ever. It is because my
resignation in current situation could be viewed as treason. Even
more than that, I do not understand why I should resign now. What
happened to make me go now?"

MOORE
LEADER