GOL PM AND FM CAUTION BELARUSIAN COUNTERPARTS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000721 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV BO LH SUBJECT: GOL PM AND FM CAUTION BELARUSIAN COUNTERPARTS ON S.OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA RECOGNITION Classified By: Ambassador John A. Cloud for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) In separate conversations September 2, Lithuanian Prime Minister Kirkilas and Foreign Minister Vaitiekunas each cautioned their Belarusian counterparts on recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Acting Director of the MFA's Eastern Neighborhood Policy Department Nortautas Statkus told Post September 3 that GOL PM Kirkilas asked Belarusian PM Sidorsky to "think twice" about recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia during a face to face meeting in the Lithuanian border town of Druskininkai. Sidorsky responded that Russia was exerting "huge pressure" on the GOB to do so, threatening to raise the price of natural gas to the European level in 2009 (according to Statkus from approximately USD 140 per 1,000 cubic meter to approximately USD 400). The two Prime Ministers also discussed the current EU-Belarus visa regime and possible energy production cooperation (septel). ¶2. (C) Statkus said a similar message of caution was delivered in a phone conversation later the same day by FM Vaitiekunas to GOB FM Martynov, who replied that no decision has been made though he said Russia has given Belarus until September 9 to decide one way or the other. ¶3. (C) Statkus said Martynov also expressed interest in a face-to-face meeting about recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia with FM Vaitiekunas (similar to the Kirkilas-Sidorsky meeting at the border). According to Statkus, Vaitiekunas is open to the idea but wants to consult with EU and U.S. allies first. He thinks any meeting with Martynov should take place before the September 15 Friends of Belarus meeting in Brussels. Statkus said the Lithuanians don't believe Martynov can alter overall policy but he at least can return honest messages to President Lukashenka. ¶4. (C) Statkus also addressed the upcoming Collective Security Treaty Organization meeting in Moscow September 5, predicting that any joint statement that emerges will contain agreed language "understanding" or "supporting" Russian actions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ¶5. (C) Action request: The GOL wants to consult with both EU allies and the USG on a foreign minister face-to-face meeting. Post requests any guidance Washington can provide on this proposed meeting. CLOUD