BELARUS: REGIME NEUTRAL ON GEORGIA CONFLICT

UNCLAS VILNIUS 000663

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM PINR BO GG
SUBJECT: BELARUS: REGIME NEUTRAL ON GEORGIA CONFLICT


1. (SBU) Utterly dependent on Russia for energy supplies and with
close societal and military links, Belarusian relations with Moscow
range from obeisant to defiant. At the same time, the GOB has
maintained cordial relations with Georgia throughout that country's
difficulties with Russia. Contacts between Minsk and Tbilisi have
been friendly, with occasional digs at Moscow: during a Russian
boycott of Georgian exports, the GOB publicly encouraged the import
and sale of Georgian wines. Georgia opened an EMBASSY in Minsk in
January 2008. A Georgia-Belarus Business Forum saw 12 Georgian
companies meet with about 30 (mostly state-owned) Belarusian firms
in April, and bilateral interaction took a further step forward in
May when the Bank of Georgia bought a 70 percent stake in the
Belarusian Popular Bank for USD 34.2 million.


2. (SBU) GOB reaction to the current situation in Georgia has been
subdued and cautiously neutral. Without referring to either Russia
or Georgia, MFA deputy spokesperson Mariya Vanshina made a terse
comment August 8, noting Belarus' "deep concern" about the bloodshed
and calling for a cease-fire and negotiations for the sake of
stability in Southern Ossetia and in the Caucasus. A subsequent MFA
travel warning August 10 only provided contact information for
Belarusian citizens affected by the conflict -- there is no
Belarusian diplomatic presence in Georgia. (Note: A member of our
local staff who returned from Tbilisi August 10 on a Belavia flight
to Minsk reported that the Russian EMBASSY in Tbilisi, ostensibly
protecting the interests of Belarusian citizens, was providing
incorrect information about flights and departure routes. End
note.)


3. (SBU) For its part, some members of Belarus' democratic
opposition have come out in support of Georgia: a 15-person
demonstration was organized across the street from the Russian
Embassy by the youth group "Malady Front" August 11; they were
quickly removed by the local police, who arrested 20-year-old
protest organizer Lyudvisa Atakulova. The press is splitting along
usual lines: the independent media have condemned Russia's
aggression, while state outlets mostly follow the lines of the
Russian media, blaming Georgia (and the U.S.).

Comment
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4. (SBU) It is not in the GOB's interest to get involved or take
sides; avoiding support for Moscow helps to underline the
independent nature of the Belarusian regime, which is any case is
not having ideal relations with Russia over energy prices. Although
official Minsk seems privately convinced that Georgian President
Saakishvili precipitated the conflict, Presidential Foreign Policy
Advisor Valentin Rybakov told Charge August 12 that the GOB would
continue to only call for negotiations and a cessation of
hostilities. Rybakov unsurprisingly anticipated that the topic
would arise in the course of bilateral meetings planned for next
week in Sochi between Lukashenko and President Medvedev.

MOORE
LEADER