BELARUS: OPPOSITION PARTY DROPS KOZULIN AS LEADER

UNCLAS VILNIUS 000627 SENSITIVE SIPDIS AMEMBASSY MINSK SENDS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR BO SUBJECT: BELARUS: OPPOSITION PARTY DROPS KOZULIN AS LEADER ¶1. (SBU) As expected, rivalry between two factions in the Belarusian Social Democratic Party-Gramada (BSDP-G) -- a key element of the opposition's United Democratic Forces (UDF) -- emerged at the BSDP-G congress August 3. Acting chair Anatoliy Levkovich received the support of a majority of the attendees and was elected the party's chair, a position held before now by political prisoner Aleksandr Kozulin. Kozulin had been BSDP-G chair since the party was founded in 2005, and as such ran separately from the UDF candidate for president -- Aleksandr Milinkevich -- in March 2006 elections. Since being arrested for protesting against the regime for its handling of those elections, Kozulin was sentenced to five and one-half years in jail, of which he has served over two years (with a brief release to attend the funeral of his wife Irina Kozulina in February 2008). ¶2. (SBU) Kozulin, through members of his family -- especially older daughter Olga Kozulina, who recently traveled to Washington and met President Bush July 24 -- and various associates, Kozulin has spoken out on political topics and has sought to retain the BSDP-G chairmanship. For his part, as acting BSDP-G chair during Kozulin's imprisonment, Levkovich has not had much of a public persona. He led the frequently delayed but ultimately successful effort to come up with a combined list of UDF candidates for the September parliamentary elections. Levkovich usefully brought BSDP-G into the UDF, but has become detached from Kozulin and -- despite a lack of intimacy with Belarusian agriculture -- had been perceived as increasingly "feeling his oats." Comment -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Members of the losing BSDP-G faction, including Olga Kozulina and Igor Rynkevich among others, are already making public, inflammatory statements against Levkovich for dropping Kozulin and seizing the chairmanship. There had been indications that they themselves had hoped to unseat Levkovich; part of their vitriol results from their disappointment and frustration at being defeated. However, others outside BSDP-G are equally shocked that Kozulin's party would abandon him when he has become such an important figure for the democratic opposition. As a separate matter, the regime will certainly make hay of the dispute to show the weakness and disorganization of the UDF. We expect to hear from Kozulin himself very soon as well: it's possible that he would advocate forming yet another party (although the social democrats have already split several times, and it would be too late for a new party to nominate anyone for the upcoming elections). Given his track record of activism, including hunger strikes and calls for UN Security Council action, Kozulin's response may be dramatic if he shares his supporters' anger. MOORE LEADER