GMS SUMMIT CELEBRATES IMPROVED REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VIENTIANE 000226 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS BESTIC COMMERCE FOR HPPHO PACOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018 TAGS: ECON EINV PREL ETRD PGOV LA CH CM VN BM TH SUBJECT: GMS SUMMIT CELEBRATES IMPROVED REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE REF: 07 VIENTIANE 524 VIENTIANE 00000226 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: AMBASSADOR RAVIC R. HUSO. REASON: 1.5 B AND D ¶1. (C) Summary: The third Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Summit March 30-31 featured the meeting of all six GMS heads of state in Laos. The GMS leaders agreed to the "Vientiane Plan of Action for GMS Development," an ambitious 5-year plan with a reported $20 billion price tag. During the two hour, closed-door session on March 31, the leaders reportedly had a frank and wide-ranging discussion which touched upon the continued necessity of building up the regional infrastructure, the importance of coordination in developing Mekong Basin water resources, and the possibility of a Lao spur for the "Singapore-Kunming" railway. The water discussion is of particular interest--a senior Lao MFA official told us that in the absence of China joining the Mekong River Commission as a full member, the GMS process provides an alternative forum for involving China in issues surrounding the Mekong region. The GMS leaders also celebrated the official opening of Route 3 in Laos, linking Kunming in Yunnan China to Bangkok in Thailand. The new road has cut travel time through Laos, border-to-border between China and Thailand, from a couple of days, especially in the rainy season, to as little as three or four hours. The Lao organizer of the summit expressed satisfaction with the outcome and noted the leaders had tasked their GMS Ministers to implement measures to ease customs logjams at key points in the GMS economic corridors. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) is comprised of Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, Cambodia, and two southern provinces of China--Yunnan and Guangxi. In 1992, with help from the Asian Development Bank (ADB),which acts as a secretariat and is the lead donor, the six countries SIPDIS launched a program of sub-regional economic cooperation to promote cross-border economic linkages. The GMS is, according to the ADB, "based on activities, rather than formal rules." Focusing on the "Three C's: Connectivity, Competitiveness, and Community," the GMS implements sub-regional projects in transport, energy, telecommunications, environment, human resource development, tourism, trade, private sector investment, and agriculture. In practice this has meant an emphasis on developing the regional transportation, energy, and communication infrastructure -- the hardware -- and improving cross-border customs interaction and "economic corridors" -- the software. (A comprehensive collection of GMS information, including the just released "Vientiane Action Plan", is available at www.adb.org/gms). The GMS summit is a triennial event begun in 2002. ¶3. (U) The third GMS Summit was held March 30-31 at the Don Chan Palace Hotel in Vientiane and was an opportunity for the six GMS heads of government to officially open Route 3 in northern Laos, a key part of the GMS North-South economic corridor linking Kunming in China's Yunnan province to Bangkok, Thailand. Prime Minister (PM) of Laos Bouasone Bouphavanh hosted the event and was joined by Cambodian PM Hun Sen, Premier of the People's Republic of China Wen Jiabao, Burmese PM Thein Sein, Thai PM Samak Sundaravej, and Vietnamese PM Nguyen Tan Dung. ¶4. (U) The Lao portion of the highway, which transits Laos from the Chinese border at Boten to the Thai border at Houayxai, is approximately 98% complete, with only a few segments requiring remedial work to overcome roadbed defects. It is the best engineered road in northern Laos, a two/three lane macadam thoroughfare that wends its way through the hills of Luang Namtha and Bokeo provinces utilizing a series of deep excavated cuts. The highway was built in three segments, the northernmost by a Chinese contractor, the central portion by a Thai contractor, and the southern leg by a Thai-Lao joint venture. Completion has reduced the transit time through Laos on this route from as much as several days (in the rainy season) to as little as three or four hours. VIENTIANE 00000226 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. (U) There has been some concern that Laos will see only limited benefits from the new road, and that the majority of vehicles will simply pass through Laos, stopping only briefly for food or fuel. However, an explosion of home and small business construction along the highway during the past year indicates that some economic benefits are already being realized by local entrepreneurs taking advantage of greater access to regional markets. Chinese companies have already built several factories alongside the road in Luang Namtha, and a Thai concern is daily hauling dozens of truck loads of lignite south on Route 3 from an adjacent open pit mine. ¶6. (U) The Mekong River crossing, however, remains a chokepoint, as trucks queue up for hours waiting for a spot on ferries that are short in both number and operating hours. Although a site for a new bridge connecting Bokeo province with Chiang Rai, Thailand, has been surveyed several kilometers south of Houayxai, the completion date has been pushed back to 2012. Thai media reports claim that Chiang Rai provincial officials, concerned about cheap Chinese industrial goods rapidly flooding into Thailand and undercutting Thai producers, are dragging their feet on completing the bridge. The full benefits of the north-south corridor will not be realized until this final link is complete. ¶7. (C) The formal summit meeting was a two hour, closed-door event on March 31, attended by the six GMS leaders and the ADB President (the ADB is invited in its role of secretariat, not as a donor). ADB Country Director Gil-Hong Kim told econoff April 3 the meeting was surprisingly frank and interactive, with the leaders freely discussing issues after their prepared remarks. Of primary interest to the leaders was the state of the GMS infrastructure. Although much improved over the past 15 years, it remains far from that of the EU or developed western countries. According to Kim, Chinese Premier Wen committed to financing a Mekong bridge linking Houayxai in Laos' Bokeo province with Xieng Khong in Thailand's Chiang Rai province. The group also discussed the "Singapore-Kunming" railway, and discussed Laos connecting via a spur from Thakek, located on the Mekong in central Laos' Khammouan province, to the Vietnamese border. Thai PM Samak offered to fund a feasibility study for the spur. During the Summit discussion, ADB president Haruhiko Kuroda reinforced the importance of institutional reform and international cooperation for successful cross-border rail traffic. ¶8. (C) Kim noted that human resource constraints were raised by Cambodian PM Hun Sen, who pushed for the hiring of more local consultants and fewer expatriates in order to maximize local knowledge development. Hun Sen also raised the importance of coordinating water resource development, noting that upstream actions on the Mekong have many downstream effects. Chinese PM Wen evidently agreed to share information on water projects, and, according to Kim, stated that China would protect the upland headwaters of the Mekong from development. The Chinese premier also reportedly pushed for the GMS countries to redouble their efforts in the areas of customs simplification and coordination to speed cross-border transit. While all agreed to refocus on implementing the Cross Border Trade Agreement (CBTA (See also paragraph 10)),PM Hun Sen reportedly said that the leaders needed to be realistic about what could be accomplished with the current systems. ¶9. (C) In discussing the future, Kim stated that the role of the ADB as honest broker and counterweight would be even more critical. The participation of the ADB allows the smaller countries such as Laos and Cambodia to sit at the table with China and Vietnam as equals, according to Kim, and helps limit potential arm-twisting. (Comment: Kim did note that the inevitable bilateral side meetings presumably took place on a less equal footing. End Comment) Kim also VIENTIANE 00000226 003.2 OF 003 pointed out that, while in the previous 15 years GMS projects with a value of approximately $10 billion had been initiated, the Vientiane Action Plan foresees $20 billion worth of projects over the next 5 years. Additional donor financing will be necessary to complete such an aggressive investment plan. ¶10. (SBU) Econoff met April 2 with Keobang A Keola, Acting Permanent Secretary for the Lao Government's newly established Water Resources and Environment Administration (WREA),who was responsible for organizing Lao participation in the summit and whose unit has responsibility for GMS activities for Laos. Unsurprisingly, she portrayed the summit as a great success. Besides opening Route 3, she noted that the PMs also agreed to focus on the CBTA, tasking the GMS Ministers in each country to make it workable within three years. Although the CBTA, designed to facilitate the cross-border transit of goods and people, entered into force in December 2003, implementation has gone slowly. The original test area, the Dansavanh (Laos)-Lao Bao (Vietnam) border crossing, is not yet working as planned and will remain the focus for implementation trials. Ms. Keola said she would be attending a GMS senior official meeting May 14 and 15 in China to begin discussions on developing a road map for implementation of the Vientiane Action Plan. ¶11. (C) Comment: The opening of Route 3 significantly improves sub-regional transportation in the northern region of the GMS, and the Chinese offer to pay for the bridge over the Mekong emphasizes the importance China places on market access for Chinese goods throughout Southeast Asia. Route 3 now gives China relatively easy access to either the excellent Thai road network or to additional ports on the Mekong. A number of Embassy contacts commented on the role of China at this summit, with one Ambassador saying she thought the summit was pitched to show China as the leading player in the GMS. Contacts also noted that the Lao were very careful to keep the foreign press (primarily Japanese) away from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, evidently afraid they would ask embarrassing questions about the situation in Tibet. A senior member of the MFA told us he thought that, because China has so far refused to join the Mekong River Commission as a full member (it has observer status),the GMS process was an alternative way to involve China in decisions being made about the Mekong region. ¶12. (C) Comment continued: The press, perhaps due to a lack of access to the principals, was often focused on less serious parts of the summit. Thai PM Samak was observed sleeping during the opening ceremony, kept his fellow leaders waiting for a group picture, and fell ill from .... something. The original scuttlebutt was that the Don Chan,s notoriously bad catering had felled him. A later news report blamed bad fish from a local Lao food stall, while the final Thai media report we saw absolved Laos completely, blaming his illness on the flu (for which he reportedly received treatment in a Thai hospital.) HUSO