TIROLEAN ELECTION COULD RESHAPE NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 000682

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2023
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: TIROLEAN ELECTION COULD RESHAPE NATIONAL
GOVERNMENT, BUT OUTCOME NOT PREDICTABLE


Classified By: Econ/Pol Counselor Dean Yap. Reason: 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary. The June 8 state elections in Tirol could
lead to federal Interior Minister Platter, an excellent USG
interlocutor on counter-terrorism, departing Vienna to become
governor of his home state. However, the outcome of the
election is unclear because of the impact of a popular former
conservative, now running as an independent and drawing
support from across the political spectrum. End Summary.

Potential National Impact
--------------


2. (C) Though Tirol is one of Austria's smaller states, its
June 8 election has the potential to change the make-up of
Austria's federal government. Ruling conservative (OVP)
governor van Staa is acknowledged, even by leading lights in
his own party, to be personally unpopular. While all our
interlocutors expect the OVP to emerge as the largest party,
if it performs badly in comparison with previous elections
(falling below 40%, for example),it could lead to van Staa's
resignation. Several OVP figures are mentioned as possible
successors, among them federal Interior Minister Platter.
Views differ on whether Platter could win the succession.
Elizabeth Zanon, one of Platter's rivals in the OVP and a
figure also mentioned as a possible Health Minister should
there be a federal cabinet reshuffle, expects him to stay in
Vienna. Walter Guggenberger, a leading Tirolean Social
Democrat (SPO),believes Platter will try to replace van
Staa, but will lose out to Zanon. However, SPO national
manager Josef Kalina claims to believe Platter has already
struck a deal with OVP rebel Dinkhauser to replace van Staa.


3. (C) Comment: While Platter's departure from Vienna must be
considered unlikely for now, were it to happen it would delay
emerging U.S.-Austrian cooperation on counter-terrorism and
combating international crime. Platter has been willing to
engage us more deeply than would be expected given the
political dynamics in Austria's grand coalition. Even an
equally pro-cooperation Minister would have to move
cautiously while consolidating his/her position, especially
vis-a-vis SPO Justice Minister Berger. End Comment.

State-of-Play
--------------


4. (U) The OVP, which enjoys an absolute majority in Tirol's
parliament and has led the state government for over 50
years, looks set to slip badly in June. In addition to the
burden of an unpopular governor (Zanon describes his poll
ratings as "in the cellar"),the party is suffering from the
defection of Fritz Dinkhauser, a party rival of van Staa's
who has set up his own organization -- largely for revenge
because van Staa had blocked his rise in the party. The OVP
stands now at just over 40% in opinion polls. To remind
voters of the OVP's role in the state -- but also signaling
concern that it could lose that role -- the OVP's first
series of election posters simply featured postcard-style
photos of Tirol's Alpine landscape with minimal text
emphasizing the state's propserity and the identity of Tirol
with the OVP.


5. (C) But the SPO has not profited from the OVP's weakness
and stands at around 20% in polls. It has also lost votes to
Dinkhauser, who came from the labor wing of the OVP. As
junior partner in the current government, the SPO is also
seen as having failed to pursue a strong social democratic
agenda. In an effort, described by SPO Tirol campaign
manager Meinhard Eiter as meant to emphasize the youthful
vigor of the SPO (in contrast to the 66-year old van Staa and
68 year-old Dinkhauser),a heavily retouched photo of the
SPO's 50 year old-leader, Hannes Gschwentner, in a black
lather jacket astride a motorcycle offering voters an
insouciant salute (which gave this American observer the
impression of a Fonzie parody as played by Donnie Osmond) has
produced, according to Guggenberger, chuckles across the
state.


6. (C) The Greens have also lost votes to Dinkhauser, who
managed to get the leader of the "Transit Forum" organization
to join his list. The Forum is the major voice of Tirolean
citizens upset about the booming volume of truck traffic
running through the state between northern Europe and Italy.
Figures from other parties, such as Woergl Mayor Arno Abler
(OVP) also say the Greens have become identified with side
issues -- such as gay marriage -- which do not win votes in
Tirol. Many also note that the Greens have also lost their
edge on environmental issues. Stephan Oblasser, head of
Technology Development at the state-owned hydroelectric power
company, notes that only 50% of the state's potential is
being exploited, but that the Greens oppose further hydro
development in favor of heavy subsidies for solar power.

VIENNA 00000682 002 OF 002


Though Green leader Georg Willy told PolChief in late April
he hoped to win up to 20% of the vote, in mid-May the Greens
stood at about 14% in polls and interlocutors thought they
could take as little as 10% of the vote.


7. (U) The right-wing populist FPO was running a one-theme
campaign directed against Tirol's non-European immigrant
population. One poster proclaimed the party in favor of
"Church bells' clang, not muezzin's call." Polls showed the
party at about 12%.

Outcome Entirely Unclear
--------------


8. (C) In large part because of the Dinkhauser effect and the
uncertainty of the final numbers, none of our interlocutors
was willing to predict what the next state government would
look like. The only option all would include was the
inclusion of the FPO in any government. Guggenberger seemed
to think a continuation of the status quo (OVP-SPO) most
likely. Zanon, who was rather critical of van Staa and the
old-line OVP leadership, said all options were open,
including an OVP-Dinkhauser coalition (without van Staa),or
an OVP-Green coalition. The OVP is officially playing up the
possibility of an SPO-Green-Dinkhauser coalition to scare
voters back into line. The SPO's Eiter said anything was
possible. Watch this space.
Kilner