IMPACT OF HAIDER DEATH ON AUSTRIAN POLITICAL

UNCLAS VIENNA 001522 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AU SUBJECT: IMPACT OF HAIDER DEATH ON AUSTRIAN POLITICAL SCENE: GOVERNMENT FORMATION AND HIS PARTY'S PROSPECTS ¶1. (U) Summary: The death of Joerg Haider, charismatic leader of Austria's far-right "Future Alliance" (BZO) appears, to most commentators, to have clarified the political landscape and made a grand coalition of Social Democrats (SPO) and Conservatives even more probable and perhaps inevitable. Conservative (OVP) leader Josef Proell has used the death, and the ongoing financial crisis, to urge his party to accept an early start to pre-negotiation talks with the SPO about a new coalition and he has also said that a new government should be formed quickly. End Summary. -- Government Formation ¶2. (U) Haider's death early October 11 in a traffic accident appears to have significantly changed the dynamic of government formation in Austria following the September 28 election, according to media and other commentators. Previously, the OVP was divided among pursuing three options -- renewing the grand coalition with the SPO, seeking to form a new coalition with the two parties of the far-right, and going into opposition. With Haider's death, the BZO, which a wide range of contacts have described to us as a personality cult that could not survive without Haider's leadership, no longer seems a credible or reliable government partner. Haider's successor, for the present, is Stefan Petzner, the 27-year-old former General Secretary of the BZO who is essentially an untested unknown. His ability to maintain the party's unity, popularity, and even its independence vis-a-vis the Freedom Party (from which the BZO split in 2005 and whose far-right platform it largely shares) are unclear. ¶3. (U) The uncertainty about the BZO's future appears to have largely sidelined those in the OVP arguing for a coalition with the far-right. While there are still voices calling for the OVP to go into opposition, party leader Proell has taken advantage of Haider's death to press for agreement on entering coalition talks (albeit "open-ended") with the SPO. On October 13, the OVP's parliamentary caucus and the Farmers' Association, two important party groups, gave a green light to starting negotiations. The party's leaders are expected to do so October 14. Proell, arguing that Austria cannot afford an extended period of negotiations given the present financial crisis, has said that, "we are not standing in the way of a speedy decision" on a new government. Despite the pressure, however, Proell must still deal with voices in the party who believe playing second fiddle to the SPO again would be a mistake. -- Longer Term Impact ¶4. (U) While the BZO has a secure place in the next Austrian parliament, with 21 seats and 11 percent of the vote, as noted above, the party's future is uncertain. Freedom Party (FPO) leader Heinz-Christian Strache has already made overtures to BZO members who might wish to rejoin the FPO. In 2006, when Haider was not on the ballot, the BZO won under 5 percent of the vote; his name was certainly the main reason the BZO took 11 percent last month. In most state elections, the BZO has been unable to clear the 4 percent hurdle for entry into parliament. With the personal animus between Strache and Haider now history, the pressure on the BZO for a merger will be great, and Strache has also hinted at this possibility. Alternatively, the BZO may remain intact until the next parliamentary elections, but at that point would likely run a great risk of missing the 4 percent hurdle and then disintegrating, with the majority of its support going to the FPO. GIRARD-DICARLO