Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08VIENNA1287
2008-09-08 14:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Vienna
Cable title:
Red Ink Permeates Austrian Campaign, Marking Break with
VZCZCXRO7749 RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV DE RUEHVI #1287/01 2521448 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 081448Z SEP 08 FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0909 INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001287
SIPDIS
PASS TREASURY FOR OASIA/ICB/VIMAL ATUKORALA
TREASURY ALSO FOR OCC/EILEEN SIEGEL
TREASURY ALSO PASS FEDERAL RESERVE
USDOC PASS TO OITA
USDOC FOR 4212/MAC/EUR/OWE/PDACHER
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB EUN AU
SUBJECT: Red Ink Permeates Austrian Campaign, Marking Break with
Economic Reform Path
REF: (A) VIENNA 0969; (B) VIENNA 0965;
(C) VIENNA 0954; (D) VIENNA 0621
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001287
SIPDIS
PASS TREASURY FOR OASIA/ICB/VIMAL ATUKORALA
TREASURY ALSO FOR OCC/EILEEN SIEGEL
TREASURY ALSO PASS FEDERAL RESERVE
USDOC PASS TO OITA
USDOC FOR 4212/MAC/EUR/OWE/PDACHER
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB EUN AU
SUBJECT: Red Ink Permeates Austrian Campaign, Marking Break with
Economic Reform Path
REF: (A) VIENNA 0969; (B) VIENNA 0965;
(C) VIENNA 0954; (D) VIENNA 0621
1. SUMMARY: Economists are concerned about pre-election spending
proposals which combined with a proposed tax cut could drive up
Austria's budget deficit from near balance to 2.5% of GDP (near the
Maastricht limit). Parliament might even enact large spending
increases before the September 28 elections, seriously limiting the
next government's policy scope and marking the de facto end to
serious economic reforms for the time being. END SUMMARY.
The Outset
--------------
2. Austria now has its highest inflation rate in fifteen years (ref
A) and economic growth is projected to weaken to 2.2-2.3% (at best)
in 2008 and 1.4-1.9% in 2009 (ref C). Blessed with strong tax
revenues in 2006 and 2007, the outgoing government spent most of the
extra income and only reduced the total public sector deficit from
1.5% of GDP in 2005 to 0.5% in 2007 (at a time when it could well
have run a surplus). Unexpected 2008 revenues will be used for
"anti-inflation" measures, a recent turn of phrase for spending
programs (including reduced unemployment insurance contributions for
low-income groups and moving the annual pension increase forward by
two months to November 1). Even before the wave of pre-election
spending, Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Wilhelm Molterer
(OVP) announced that the GoA will be able to cut the federal deficit
to 0.1% of GDP in 2010 with a small surplus thereafter, signifying
that the GOA has abandoned the goal of a balanced budget over the
economic cycle (in line with the EU's Stability and Growth Pact).
3. Relative to other Eurozone economies, Austria made major fiscal
policy shifts from 2000 to 2006 including pension reform and a
corporate tax cut. However, in the past two years, the SPO-OVP
grand coalition failed to continue the reform agenda in such areas
as streamlining government and administration, health care reform,
and other measures to anchor long-term fiscal sustainability.
More Pork than Usual for Election Season
--------------
4. Coming at a time of voter discontent, the election campaign has
led all major parties to propose ways to soften the impact of
inflation through tax cuts and new spending. In July, Molterer
opened pork season by proposing a thirteenth monthly family
allowance, a higher nursing care allowance and a subsidized "Austria
ticket" for all public transportation - estimated to cost EUR 550
million in all. Social democrats were sympathetic but needed their
own package for campaign reasons, leading SPO Chairman and Transport
Minister Werner Faymann to terminate the coalition's parliamentary
truce and present an SPO spending package: a higher nursing care
allowance and thirteenth monthly family allowance (by and large
compatible with the OVP),abolishing university student fees,
extending from 2010 to 2013 the possibility for early retirement
without cuts in pension payments (another step back from 2003/4
pension reforms),and cutting the VAT on food products from 10% to
5% - estimated total cost of EUR 1.3 billion. Since then, the
parties have outbid each other on new spending, with cost estimates
(including the income tax cut) as follows:
PARTY PROPOSED NEW SPENDING
-------------- --------------
SPO EUR 5.0 billion
OVP EUR 3.8 billion
FPO EUR 5.7 billion
Greens EUR 7.5 billion
BZO EUR 4.8 billion
Economists Sound the Alarm
--------------
5. Austria has done well since 2000 by pursuing liberal market
reforms but remains in transition from a highly regulated economy
with a large government sector to a flexible "social market"
economy. Economists are concerned about the recent spiraling of
campaign promises -- none of which qualifies as structural reform or
true growth promotion -- and their negative potential impact on
Austria's federal budget. Conservative senior economist Bernhard
Felderer (head of the Federal Debt Committee) expressed concern that
the spending promises could push the budget deficit to 1.5% of GDP
in 2010, including the planned income tax cut even to 2.5% of GDP,
VIENNA 00001287 002 OF 002
in which case Austrians have can expect a new wave of austerity
measures.
Income Tax Cut in Jeopardy, VAT Tax Cut Problematic
-------------- --------------
6. There is broad consensus that Austria should lower and overhaul
personal income taxes. Austria's tax quota is high (close to 43% of
GDP) and the current system is unbalanced: 7.5% of salaried tax
payers are responsible for 45% of total income tax revenues on wages
while almost 43% pay no tax. Since 1990, personal income tax burden
has fallen as a share of EU GDP (from 10.7% to 10.2%) while rising
in Austria (from 8.3% to 9.3% of GDP). Austria has high taxes on
labor income but low property and corporate taxes and is below the
EU average for ecological taxes. Given election-related promises,
there may be no money left for cutting income tax, in part because
the outgoing GoA failed to free up budget funds by implementing
administrative reform and streamlining levels of government (ref
B).
7. Experts criticize the proposed VAT cut as costly (about EUR 1
billion),socially unbalanced, the wrong way to fight inflation and
a measure that can hardly be reversed. Despite a legal requirement
on firms to pass on tax cuts, many experts doubt that consumers will
reap the full benefit of a VAT reduction in the form of lower
prices, particularly given Austria's extremely high concentration
among retail grocery chains.
COMMENT: Resting on Laurels While Reform Fades
-------------- --
8. Across the spectrum, parties are painting the next government
into a corner by promising expensive new programs without new
sources of savings or revenue. Even if only some of the proposed
measures are implemented, the budget deficit could rise to 1.5% of
GDP, which with the planned tax cut would mean a deficit of up to
2.5% of GDP (or higher in a recession). Expanding Austria's already
large welfare state seems like electioneering rather than a coherent
response to inflation. Austria's family allowances already total
3.1% of GDP - considerably above the OECD average of 2.4%. A bigger
state will crowd out needed investments in R&D, restructuring, and
other measures need to keep Austria competitive despite its high
wages and costs.
9. The end of Austria's economic reform decade is in the air. The
bulk of new spending proposals - whether enacted before the election
or soon afterwards -- would considerably pre-charge the next budget
and limit the incoming government's economic policy scope.
Moreover, the campaign has degenerated into a race to "buy votes" at
the cost of long-term sustainability. The next GOA will have
difficulty convincing markets that it can kick-start reform despite
promising voters the contrary.
GIRARD-DICARLO
SIPDIS
PASS TREASURY FOR OASIA/ICB/VIMAL ATUKORALA
TREASURY ALSO FOR OCC/EILEEN SIEGEL
TREASURY ALSO PASS FEDERAL RESERVE
USDOC PASS TO OITA
USDOC FOR 4212/MAC/EUR/OWE/PDACHER
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB EUN AU
SUBJECT: Red Ink Permeates Austrian Campaign, Marking Break with
Economic Reform Path
REF: (A) VIENNA 0969; (B) VIENNA 0965;
(C) VIENNA 0954; (D) VIENNA 0621
1. SUMMARY: Economists are concerned about pre-election spending
proposals which combined with a proposed tax cut could drive up
Austria's budget deficit from near balance to 2.5% of GDP (near the
Maastricht limit). Parliament might even enact large spending
increases before the September 28 elections, seriously limiting the
next government's policy scope and marking the de facto end to
serious economic reforms for the time being. END SUMMARY.
The Outset
--------------
2. Austria now has its highest inflation rate in fifteen years (ref
A) and economic growth is projected to weaken to 2.2-2.3% (at best)
in 2008 and 1.4-1.9% in 2009 (ref C). Blessed with strong tax
revenues in 2006 and 2007, the outgoing government spent most of the
extra income and only reduced the total public sector deficit from
1.5% of GDP in 2005 to 0.5% in 2007 (at a time when it could well
have run a surplus). Unexpected 2008 revenues will be used for
"anti-inflation" measures, a recent turn of phrase for spending
programs (including reduced unemployment insurance contributions for
low-income groups and moving the annual pension increase forward by
two months to November 1). Even before the wave of pre-election
spending, Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Wilhelm Molterer
(OVP) announced that the GoA will be able to cut the federal deficit
to 0.1% of GDP in 2010 with a small surplus thereafter, signifying
that the GOA has abandoned the goal of a balanced budget over the
economic cycle (in line with the EU's Stability and Growth Pact).
3. Relative to other Eurozone economies, Austria made major fiscal
policy shifts from 2000 to 2006 including pension reform and a
corporate tax cut. However, in the past two years, the SPO-OVP
grand coalition failed to continue the reform agenda in such areas
as streamlining government and administration, health care reform,
and other measures to anchor long-term fiscal sustainability.
More Pork than Usual for Election Season
--------------
4. Coming at a time of voter discontent, the election campaign has
led all major parties to propose ways to soften the impact of
inflation through tax cuts and new spending. In July, Molterer
opened pork season by proposing a thirteenth monthly family
allowance, a higher nursing care allowance and a subsidized "Austria
ticket" for all public transportation - estimated to cost EUR 550
million in all. Social democrats were sympathetic but needed their
own package for campaign reasons, leading SPO Chairman and Transport
Minister Werner Faymann to terminate the coalition's parliamentary
truce and present an SPO spending package: a higher nursing care
allowance and thirteenth monthly family allowance (by and large
compatible with the OVP),abolishing university student fees,
extending from 2010 to 2013 the possibility for early retirement
without cuts in pension payments (another step back from 2003/4
pension reforms),and cutting the VAT on food products from 10% to
5% - estimated total cost of EUR 1.3 billion. Since then, the
parties have outbid each other on new spending, with cost estimates
(including the income tax cut) as follows:
PARTY PROPOSED NEW SPENDING
-------------- --------------
SPO EUR 5.0 billion
OVP EUR 3.8 billion
FPO EUR 5.7 billion
Greens EUR 7.5 billion
BZO EUR 4.8 billion
Economists Sound the Alarm
--------------
5. Austria has done well since 2000 by pursuing liberal market
reforms but remains in transition from a highly regulated economy
with a large government sector to a flexible "social market"
economy. Economists are concerned about the recent spiraling of
campaign promises -- none of which qualifies as structural reform or
true growth promotion -- and their negative potential impact on
Austria's federal budget. Conservative senior economist Bernhard
Felderer (head of the Federal Debt Committee) expressed concern that
the spending promises could push the budget deficit to 1.5% of GDP
in 2010, including the planned income tax cut even to 2.5% of GDP,
VIENNA 00001287 002 OF 002
in which case Austrians have can expect a new wave of austerity
measures.
Income Tax Cut in Jeopardy, VAT Tax Cut Problematic
-------------- --------------
6. There is broad consensus that Austria should lower and overhaul
personal income taxes. Austria's tax quota is high (close to 43% of
GDP) and the current system is unbalanced: 7.5% of salaried tax
payers are responsible for 45% of total income tax revenues on wages
while almost 43% pay no tax. Since 1990, personal income tax burden
has fallen as a share of EU GDP (from 10.7% to 10.2%) while rising
in Austria (from 8.3% to 9.3% of GDP). Austria has high taxes on
labor income but low property and corporate taxes and is below the
EU average for ecological taxes. Given election-related promises,
there may be no money left for cutting income tax, in part because
the outgoing GoA failed to free up budget funds by implementing
administrative reform and streamlining levels of government (ref
B).
7. Experts criticize the proposed VAT cut as costly (about EUR 1
billion),socially unbalanced, the wrong way to fight inflation and
a measure that can hardly be reversed. Despite a legal requirement
on firms to pass on tax cuts, many experts doubt that consumers will
reap the full benefit of a VAT reduction in the form of lower
prices, particularly given Austria's extremely high concentration
among retail grocery chains.
COMMENT: Resting on Laurels While Reform Fades
-------------- --
8. Across the spectrum, parties are painting the next government
into a corner by promising expensive new programs without new
sources of savings or revenue. Even if only some of the proposed
measures are implemented, the budget deficit could rise to 1.5% of
GDP, which with the planned tax cut would mean a deficit of up to
2.5% of GDP (or higher in a recession). Expanding Austria's already
large welfare state seems like electioneering rather than a coherent
response to inflation. Austria's family allowances already total
3.1% of GDP - considerably above the OECD average of 2.4%. A bigger
state will crowd out needed investments in R&D, restructuring, and
other measures need to keep Austria competitive despite its high
wages and costs.
9. The end of Austria's economic reform decade is in the air. The
bulk of new spending proposals - whether enacted before the election
or soon afterwards -- would considerably pre-charge the next budget
and limit the incoming government's economic policy scope.
Moreover, the campaign has degenerated into a race to "buy votes" at
the cost of long-term sustainability. The next GOA will have
difficulty convincing markets that it can kick-start reform despite
promising voters the contrary.
GIRARD-DICARLO