AUSTRIAN YOUTUBE GENERATION VIEWS NATIONAL ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 001146 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV AU SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN YOUTUBE GENERATION VIEWS NATIONAL ELECTIONS Summary -------------- ¶1. Young voters will provide a critical boost for smaller parties such as the Greens, the Liberal Forum, and, to a lesser extent, the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) in Austria's September 28 national elections. The two governing parties, the Social Democrats (SPO) and the conservative People's Party (OVP),will gain the least from young voters, as confidence in both has plummeted after the collapse of the Grand Coalition. Major election themes for young voters will mirror those of the general population, with priority issues being internal security, inflation, employment, pensions, tax policy and the social welfare system. Education is an area of additional concern to young voters. The stance taken by young politicians on issues like EU politics and military spending provide insight into the direction that future Austrian politicians may pursue, with pan-Europeanism and neutrality to remain core parts of the Austrian identity. Despite the minimum voting age being lowered to 16 and an additional 184,000 first-time voters expected, the youth vote in Austria will not likely play a decisive role in the upcoming election. Overall numbers are not large enough, a trend compounded by predictions that many young voters will abstain from voting out of protest against the Austrian government. The findings in this report are based on a series of interviews with young politicians as well as representatives from politically-engaged youth organizations. End Summary. New Voting Age of 16 -------------- ¶2. For the first time in a national election, Austrians can vote at the age of sixteen, one of the most generous minimum age requirements in the world. This will usher in an estimated 184,000 additional first-time voters. Sixteen has been the minimum age in a few provincial elections, including Vienna in 2005 and Lower Austria earlier this year. Contrary to fears that young voters would support more extreme right- or left-wing parties, most young Austrians voted in line with the general population. Participation rates of young and first-time voters were also in line with the general population, typically between 60 and 80 percent, relatively high among European democracies. At the national level, this group of young voters remains an unknown. Most experts agree that they will be influenced by their parents, although to what degree remains open to debate. Nonetheless, the relatively small size of this voting group limits its ability to impact the election outcome. Young Voters Less Engaged -------------- ¶3. Political engagement of Austria's youth remains limited and, by some measures, is decreasing. While Austria boasts several large political youth organizations - the Socialist Youth with 63,000 members and the Young OVP with 100,000 members - most political activity remains limited to existing members and membership has stagnated since the 1980s. According to a study by the Center for Youth Research in Vienna, young people have become less politically active. In 1990, 47 percent of people ages 14 to 24 considered themselves to be "very" or "somewhat" active; by 2006, this number had dropped to 30 percent. ¶4. According political youth expert Bernhard Heinzlmaier, the decreased political engagement reflects a growing skepticism among Austrian youth about the country's politicians. Young people have become disillusioned with politics as previous governments have produced few concrete results that benefit young voters (particularly evident with the current Grand Coalition). Representatives from political youth organizations speculate that this could lead to an increasing number of people who choose either not to vote or give "protest votes" done with the sole purpose of making coalition configurations difficult. Emphasis on Education -------------- ¶5. Education and socioeconomic background play a far greater role than age in determining election issue priorities, particularly in areas like immigration, tax policy, and social welfare. For adults and young voters alike, key issues in the upcoming election will include internal security, inflation, employment, tax policy and the social welfare system. In addition, young voters will concentrate on education policy, seeking improvements in apprenticeship and training program opportunities and better alignment of certification programs throughout the EU. As in the previous election, the elimination of student fees is on the agenda for some parties (SPO and the Greens),although this will remain difficult to implement in light of recent government budget concerns. ¶6. Other areas of concern for Austria's youth include EU policy and "peace" (anti-war) policy. EU policy is a fairly uncontroversial VIENNA 00001146 002 OF 002 issue for young voters as most accept Austria's continued participation in the EU, albeit with some reforms deemed necessary (according to the SPO view in particular). Likewise, there is nearly universal agreement by young politicians across all parties that military spending should be reduced and allocated toward social programs. Both issues provide insight into the direction that future Austrian politicians might pursue, with pan-Europeanism and neutrality to remain core parts of the Austrian identity. ¶7. More than with adult voters, political parties are appealing to emotions and values to attract young voters. According to Tina Tauss, president of the SPO-affiliate Young Generation, the large number of undecided young voters means that the election campaign will be intense, emotional, and personal. Both the SPO and the Greens are running anti-racism campaigns in response to the rise of anti-immigration sentiment and right-wing ideas embodied by the FPO. The Greens are also using the theme of "justice" in their outreach campaigns while the SPO will promote themes like "equality of opportunity" and "solidarity." The Liberal Forum party will appeal to young voters' affinity for independence. In contrast to the other parties, the OVP has a more pragmatic agenda with an emphasis on concrete issues and fewer abstract voting themes, according to Young OVP member Sven Poellauer. Low Youth Turnout Expected -------------- ¶8. As levels of dissatisfaction with Austrian politics are at a nearly all-time high, voting behavior is difficult to predict, particularly for young voters. Dissatisfaction may drive young voters toward protest votes (abstaining or voting for smaller parties, regardless of political views) or more earnest participation. Most young politicians believe that the first option is more likely, particularly with students. Samir Al-Mobayyed from the Austrian Higher Education Youth Council noted that the timing of the elections, shortly before the beginning of the academic year, means that participation rates for students may be lower than in past years. This may impact parties that receive a higher share of the vote from educated youth, particularly the Greens and the OVP, but will not have dramatic consequences. Smaller Parties Likely to Gain -------------- ¶9. Smaller parties are expected to profit from the youth vote. The Liberal Forum's more libertarian approach appeals to many young voters, as does the Green party's emphasis on youth-friendly topics like education, mobility, and environmental issues. Thomas Geldmacher of the Greens feels that an additional strength is the party's grassroots organizational structure, which has proven effective in engaging young voters. Of the two right-wing parties, the relatively small Future of Austria party (BZO) is not expected to gain much from young voters while the more popular FPO is expected to pick up votes, particularly from young voters with lower levels of education. ¶10. The two governing parties are not likely to gain as much from the youth vote. The SPO is expected to suffer the largest losses among young voters. This is partly due to its failure to follow through on campaign promises to young voters - most notably, the abolishment of student university fees. The SPO has also struggled to connect with young voters in recent years, as it is increasingly seen as an aging party for blue collar workers. The OVP enjoys a slightly higher status among young people but is still likely to be affected by protest votes. It may also lose to parties like the Greens and the Liberal Forum, which have the same voter base of educated young people.