POST ANALYSIS OF PAPAL ADDRESS ON CURRENT AFFAIRS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 VATICAN 000014 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/11/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KIRF PHUM CU CH VE LE IS IR IZ VT SUBJECT: POST ANALYSIS OF PAPAL ADDRESS ON CURRENT AFFAIRS REF: A. A. 2007 VATICAN 150 (NOTAL) ¶B. B. VATICAN 10 (NOTAL) ¶C. C. 2007 VATICAN 178 (NOTAL) VATICAN 00000014 001.4 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Chris Sandrolini, CDA. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In his annual address on January 7 to the diplomatic corps accredited to the Holy See, Pope Benedict XVI provided an overview of the Vatican's concerns on a broad range of issues and hot spots. As revealing as his actual words are the Pope's omissions and nuances. Among the countries and issues covered -- and omitted -- we believe it is worthwhile to reflect and provide background and analysis on the Holy See's views on Cuba, Venezuela, Annapolis, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and China. Cuba and Venezuela -------------- ¶2. (U) The Pope noted that 2008 will mark the tenth anniversary of his predecessor's trip to Cuba, and restated John Paul II's appeal "for all Cubans to collaborate to achieve a better future." The Pope added that this message of hope is still very much valid today. ¶3. (C) Comment: The Pope did not raise issues relating to freedom of religion on the island. For the Holy See, Catholics in Cuba are currently enjoying some level of religious freedom (reftel A). The Holy See's Secretary of State, Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, is scheduled to visit Cuba in February, and has hinted he will address human rights, among other issues (reftel B). A member of an international Catholic lay movement -- the Community of Sant Egidio -- visiting Rome commented to poloff that relations between the Church and the Cuban government were "not great, but not too bad either". Always predisposed to engage, the Holy See sees the current political situation in Cuba -- specifically the possibility of an aging Fidel relinquishing some of his authority -- as an opportunity to progressively pursue a greater public role for the Church in the moral education and social life of Cubans. End comment. ¶4. (U) The Pope hoped for a reduction of internal tensions within Latin American countries. ¶5. (C) Comment: Although he did not name specific countries, his words are applicable to Venezuela. In 2007, the bishops of Venezuela assumed a prominent role in the successful campaign to defeat, in the December 2 referendum, President Chavez's ;constitutional reforms proposals. While the Holy See was supportive of the Venezuelan bishops' right to speak publicly about important social issues, it was also wary of having the national episcopal conference assume the role of political opposition to the Venezuelan government (reftel C). ¶6. (SBU) Comment continued: Also important -- and disturbing -- to the Holy See is the resilience of Latin American liberation theology. During his time as the powerful Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith in the 1980s and 1990s, the then Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger opposed liberation theology for its overt sympathy for revolutionary movements. Some of the supporters of this theology -- including former clerics -- now occupy prominent political positions in countries like Bolivia and Paraguay, a phenomenon that one commentator has described as the secular reincarnation of liberation theology. For the Holy See, the Church Magisterium (the teachings of the Catholic Church) on social issues already advocates strongly for the rights of the underprivileged. This advocacy, often described as the Church's "preferential option for the poor", should not include clerics assuming high level governmental positions or running for office. In calling for a reduction of domestic tensions in Latin America, the Holy See hopes to prevent a climate fertile for activist, progressive clerics to coalesce with populist, authoritarian governments. End comment. Annapolis, Lebanon and Iraq -------------- ¶7. (U) The Pope was happy that "the Annapolis Conference has shown signs that partial or unilateral solutions will be abandoned in favor of a global vision that respects the rights and interests of the peoples in the region". ¶8. (C) Comment: While the Pope called on both Palestinians and Israelis to continue working together, the Holy See believes that Israel holds a greater level of responsibility for the future of the process. Holy See officials consider that Israel has the upper hand because it is more powerful. These officials also feel a special affinity for Palestinians, because more than ninety-five per cent of Christians in the Holy Land are Palestinians. Holy See representatives attended Annapolis and the follow-up donors conference in Paris. The Vatican would VATICAN 00000014 002.4 OF 003 welcome Holy See inclusion in future, follow-up, multilateral meetings. Vatican officials note, however, that the Holy See does not have a specific agenda for these meetings, other than advancing peace. End comment. ¶9. (U) The Pope called on Lebanese politicians to work towards reconciliation and to set aside particularistic interests. He also expressed his wish that the Lebanese may freely decide on their future. ¶10. (C) Comment: The Holy See advocates a consensus solution to the crises in Lebanon as the only way to preserve peace. While the Vatican understands the obstructionist role that Syria is playing in the impasse, it advocates engaging rather than isolating Damascus. For the Holy See director for the Middle East, Monsignor Franco Coppola, Syrian obstructionism is linked to its apparent exclusion from the next round of post-Annapolis talks. In his view, Damascus will not cooperate on Lebanon if Syria is not included in a possible Annapolis-inspired comprehensive solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict that would include discussion about the return of the Golan Heights. End comment. ¶11. (U) The Pope highlighted his concern for ongoing violence in Iraq, and specifically for attacks against Christians. He noted that the previous day (January 6) there had been attacks targeting Christians (in Baghdad and Northern Iraq). These, he added, underscored that there are still fundamental political and social problems in Iraq. The Holy See has repeatedly stated its concern and support for Christians in the region. The Pope also appealed for assistance for Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons. ¶12. (C) Comment: While the Vatican opposed the 2003 US military invasion, Holy See officials now tend to emphasize USG responsibility to restore peace in Iraq and protect all civilians, including Christians. The Holy See would like the US to succeed in bringing about a peaceful and democratic Iraq. Until such a time, many in the Holy See consider that it is the responsibility of the US to maintain a strong military presence in the country. End comment. Iran and security -------------- ¶13. (U) The Pope advocated the use of diplomacy to address Iranian nuclear program concerns, including through "good-faith negotiations and measures aimed at increasing transparency and mutual confidence, taking into account the authentic needs of peoples and the human family common good". The Pope then moved on to comment on Holy See concerns in Asia. It was only at the end of his speech that the Pope addressed issues regarding security and disarmament, when he asked all states to live up to their nuclear non-proliferation commitments and called on the international community to work together to prevent terrorists from gaining access to weapons of mass destruction. The Pope welcomed the agreements to dismantle North Korea's nuclear weapons program. He also urged the adoption of measures to advance conventional weapons disarmament and to "confront the humanitarian problems of cluster bombs". ¶14. (C) Comment: Holy See officials believe that the US policy to pressure Iran on the nuclear issue is counterproductive. Coppola has told us that, in his view, Tehran will react with hostility -- rather than cooperate -- when it feels under threat. US military presence to the east and the west of Iran (in Afghanistan and Iraq) reinforces Tehran's fears. The UN Security Council, he believes, has acted too harshly in dealing with the issue, considering that the International Atomic Energy Agency referred Iran's case to the Security Council on an "information" basis, rather than on the basis of non-compliance. Iran, Coppola said, is in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),even if it may not be in compliance with the NPT's additional protocol, which Tehran signed but never ratified. The Holy See has stated that Iran has a right to develop a civilian nuclear energy program, but also agrees that Iran should cooperate with the international community to defuse tensions. End comment. China -------------- ¶15. (U) The Pope did not explicitly mention China in his speech. The Pope did speak about China in his address to the Roman Curia -- the Holy See's staff -- on December 21, where he recalled his June 2007 letter to the Chinese faithful and restated the Holy See's predisposition to engage in a "calm and constructive dialogue with the authorities to resolve the different problems regarding the (Chinese) Catholic community". VATICAN 00000014 003.4 OF 003 ¶16. (C) Comment: The Pope not mentioning China in his speech to the diplomatic corps is another indication of the very cautious and long-term approach that the Holy See is taking with respect to China. If pressed to choose between greater religious freedom for Chinese Catholics and the unity of the Catholic Church in that country, the Holy See is likely to choose unity. The Holy See wants to make sure that, at the end of the day, there is only one Catholic Church in China. A strong defense of religious freedom in China could lead to further distancing between Catholic clerics associated with the officially-sanctioned Patriotic Association and the clerics of the illegal underground Church. End comment. ¶17. (U) The Pope also commented briefly on the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Darfur, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Balkans, Kosovo, Cyprus, the future of the European Union, inter-religious dialogue, freedom of religion, the sanctity of human life, the death penalty, the family, biotechnology, and development. The full text of the speech is posted at the Vatican's official website, www. vatican. va (click on Benedict XVI, speeches).SANDROLINI