GEORGIA/RUSSIA: RUSSIA OFFERS UNOMIG EXTENSION FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000835 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018 TAGS: PREL GG RS SUBJECT: GEORGIA/RUSSIA: RUSSIA OFFERS UNOMIG EXTENSION FOR ARRIA Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 1.(C) SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST. Russian Ambassador Churkin has raised the possibility that Russia would allow a technical extension of the UNOMIG mandate without insisting on a change of name or on the participation by Abkhaz de facto authorities in a Council session-- provided that the Security Council does not invite Georgia to participate in a session to renew the mandate, and if the United States grants visas to the defacto authorities of South Ossetia and Abkhazia for an Arria-format meeting prior to October 15. Permanent Members France and the U.K., along with Germany, appear ready to accept the Russian compromise of an Arria meeting as a way to ensure international involvement in Abkhazia for the short-term, and to avoid a protracted negotiation in New York on the eve of the political dialogue in Geneva. Germany has circulated to the P-3 a draft minimalist technical rollover UNSCR for comment. The Georgian PermRep has told us he is in favor of holding the hard line against an Arria style meeting and Abkhaz participation in a formal Council meeting, even at the risk of losing the UNOMIG mandate. Our assessment is that by blocking an Arria format appearance, we risk losing UNOMIG's foothold in Abkhazia and we risk losing support from others in the Council against participation of Abkhaz and South Ossetian authorities in a formal Council session. Action request: We request Department guidance on the Russian proposed compromise and on the German draft resolution. End Summary. Russia Floats a Compromise: Arria for UNOMIG -------------- 2.(C) On the sidelines of a meeting of a General Assembly Open Ended Working Group meeting on September 15, Russian Ambassador Churkin raised the issue of UNOMIG with Ambassador Khalilzad. Churkin told Khalilzad that the Russian government could support allowing an extension of the United Nations Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) under its current mandate and name. Russia would not insist on having a representative of Abkhazia speak at the Council meeting if the Security Council were to agree that Georgia would also not be allowed to appear. Churkin allowed that this would be a purely technical rollover of the mandate for four months (he mentioned mid-February) that would get us past the discussions to be held Geneva in mid-October as part of the Medvedev-Sarkozy agreement of September 8. Churkin confirmed to Ambassador Khalilzad he understood the U.S. would not support any change to the name, UNOMIG, and that substantive issues, such as the size or competencies of the UNOMIG mandate would not be part of the discussion. Russia would want the United States to allow representatives of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to attend an Arria-format meeting in the United States on October 7, as an alternative to their appearance at a formal Council session. Ambassador Khalilzad said he would pass the proposal on to Washington. Europeans Eager for UNOMIG Extension -------------- 3.(C) At a subsequent meeting of German, French, U.K., and U.S. Ambassadors on September 16, German Ambassador Matussek told Ambassador DiCarlo he had had a similar conversation with Churkin. The Russian told Matussek he could accept having no representatives of the de facto Abkhaz authorities at a UNSC session to extend UNOMIG, if there were no speeches at the meeting and if no representatives of other governments (i.e., Georgia) were permitted to attend. Without going into specifics, U.K. Ambassador Sawers said he had gotten the same impression from his conversations with Churkin. 4.(C) French Ambassador Ripert emphasized that France wanted a rollover of the current mandate for as long as possible, so as not to distract from the EU-led discussions in Geneva. France sees the Geneva process as the fulfillment of point six of the cease-fire agreement brokered by French President Sarkozy. France would not want to engage in a discussion in New York of the modalities of changes to the UN mandate in Georgia that would distract from the Geneva process. Germany and the U.K. also looked favorably on Churkin's proposal, because it could leave open the introduction of EU monitors into Abkhazia through UNOMIG at a later date. The continued involvement of the UN in Georgia could also be used to raise the issue of Russia's occupation of Georgia at a later date. The German Ambassador circulated a "notional" Resolution that he said Germany could introduce in the Council in its role as the coordinator of the Friends. Germany extended the period of the rollover to six months with the assumption Russia will ask for four. See paragraph 7 for text of draft UNSCR. Georgians Against Arria-Format Meeting -------------- USUN NEW Y 00000835 002 OF 002 5.(C) In a separate meeting on September 16 with Ambassador DiCarlo, Georgian PermRep Alasania, who had earlier told us he supported an Arria-style meeting in October in order to bolster opposition to participation in a formal Council meeting, said Georgia had changed its thinking. After assessing that it still had the votes in the Council to block participation in a formal meeting, the Georgians now want the U.S. to prevent the Arria meeting by denying visas and continuing to oppose Abkhaz participation in the Council meeting on UNOMIG. Alasania is prepared to revisit the Arria format meeting in January, but believes that the concession to Russia should not be granted in advance of the mid-October Geneva meeting and completion of the Russian withdrawal. He believes Costa Rica will remain a reliable seventh vote, along with the U.S. and the five EU countries, to block any attempt by Russia to force a procedural vote on the appearance of the de facto S. Ossetia and Abkhazia authorities at a formal Council session. (Note: Russia would require 9 votes in order to force the Council to agree to hear a non-Member. Since the Council consists of 15 members, 7 votes are needed to block procedural moves. There is no veto on procedural questions. End Note.) 6.(C) Alasania said that Tbilisi was not concerned about a Russian veto of UNOMIG since UNOMIG played a minor role in Abkhazia. Ambassador DiCarlo warned that while we now had 7 votes to block the Abkhaz/South Ossetia participation in a formal Council session, those votes might waver if Russia tries to block UNOMIG. She referred to strong European support to keep UNOMIG in place for several months as a foothold for later European or international presence in the separatist areas. Comment and Action Request -------------- 7.(C) We will have to weigh our options carefully-- including our interest in continuing UNOMIG-- as we try to thwart Russian efforts to legitimize Abkhaz and South Ossetian de facto authorities by participation in UN meetings, while at the same time seeking a technical rollover of UNOMIG by October 15. We believe that today we have seven votes to block participation of the de facto leaders in a formal session of the Council (U.S., European members of the Council, and Costa Rica). We are less certain than Alasania that these votes will hold until after the Geneva session. 8.(C) If we refuse to pursue the deal proposed by Churkin (Arria meeting with Abkhaz and South Ossetians on Oct 7, no Abkhaz presence in a formal Council session when UNOMIG is adopted, and a technical rollover),we can expect that Churkin will attempt to hold the UNOMIG rollover hostage to Abkhaz participation in the Council. While Georgia is prepared to lose this mission, our European partners appear to set a priority for UNOMIG's continuation and for a quiet rollover. Abkhaz desires to have UNOMIG continue will also weigh on Council members and the UN Secretariat. We can easily see European resolve weakening and support growing for a trade: Russian acquiescence for a UNMOG rollover for Abkhaz participation. At this point, the idea of an Arria meeting would likely be moot. 9.(C) If we refuse to grant visas for the Arria session for October 7, we risk either losing the UNOMIG mandate or finding a Council that would support participation of the Abkhaz authorities in a formal session of the Council. USUN will continue to discuss this issue with European members of the Council to ascertain their firmness to opposition to Abkhaz and South Ossetian participation in UN meetings. We request Department guidance on the Russian proposal and the German initiated UNSCR. German Draft UNSCR on UNOMIG -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Begin Text: The Security Council, PP1 Recalling all of its relevant resolutions including resolution 1808 of 15 April 2007 (S/RES/1808); PP2 Welcoming the reports of the Secretary-General on the activities of the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia of 23 July 2008 (S/2008/480) and X October 2008 (S/2008/XXX): ¶1. Decides to extend the mandate of UNOMIG for a new period terminating on 15 April 2009; ¶2. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter. End Text. Khalilzad