UNIFIL: GENERAL GRAZIANO CONCERNED ABOUT RECENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000738

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MCAP KPKO LE IS
SUBJECT: UNIFIL: GENERAL GRAZIANO CONCERNED ABOUT RECENT
LEBANESE CABINET STATEMENT

REF: TEL AVIV 1783

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: UNIFIL Force Commander Major General
Graziano told Ambassador Khalilzad August 14 that he prefers
a simple, technical roll-over of UNIFIL's mandate since it
will take a few months to assess how Lebanon's new political
realities may impact UNIFIL's mandate. He expressed concern
over Hizballah's intentions in southern Lebanon, given the
"resistance" language in the cabinet statement, but remains
adamant that there is no evidence of Hizballah's current
rearming in UNIFIL's AOR. Graziano said he expects to
receive a formal letter August 18 from the Lebanese
government approving an interim set of measures to facilitate
the Israeli withdrawal from northern Ghajar and hand-over to
UNIFIL. The Lebanese letter would be valid for three months
and require an Israeli response during that time period.
Graziano expressed serious concern with continued Israeli
overflights of southern Lebanon and the possible
ramifications of a downed pilot. Graziano requested U.S.
assistance in obtaining final Israeli approval for a UNIFIL
liaison office in Tel Aviv. End summary.

Technical roll-over of
UNIFIL mandate preferred
--------------


2. (C) UNIFIL Force Commander Major General Claude Graziano
told Ambassador Khalilzad, in an August 14 meeting, that a
simple, technical roll-over of UNIFIL's mandate (which
expires August 31) would be better given the changing
political situation on the ground in Lebanon with the
recently approved Lebanese government and cabinet statement.
He described the current period as a "moment of confusion"
and noted that it would take a few months to assess if
UNIFIL's mandate should be adjusted accordingly.

Need a couple of months to
assess how new political
realities affect UNIFIL
--------------


3. (C) Graziano expressed specific concern that Hizballah
might seek to use the "resistance" language in the cabinet
statement as an invitation to overtly come back into southern
Lebanon. If that happens, Graziano said, "we might need to
change UNIFIL's mandate so that it can use more force."
While Graziano characterized UNIFIL as having "good tactical
control" of its AOR, he said the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
are "extremely tired and stretched" and without sufficient
equipment, fuel or ammunition. Overall, he described the LAF
as in a "period of disaster" -- going four months without an
army chief -- and said he hoped a new chief would be
appointed soon. Moreover, Graziano stressed the importance
of increasing the LAF's capabilities since that would be the
only way to get rid of Hizballah in Lebanon.

No evidence of Hizballah
rearming in the south
--------------


4. (C) Graziano remains adamant that there is no evidence of
Hizballah's rearming in the UNIFIL AOR, and that Israeli
claims of 40,000 rockets in the south is overblown. He
stressed that he meets with senior IDF leadership frequently,
and, that while they make such claims, they never provide him
with any concrete, actionable intelligence.

Ghajar
--------------


5. (C) Graziano said that he expects to receive a formal
letter August 18 from the Lebanese government approving a set
of interim measures to facilitate completion of the Israeli
Defense Forces' withdrawal from northern Ghajar. Graziano
noted that the Lebanese approval would be valid for a period
of three months during which time the Israeli side would have
to accept the same set of interim measures. He pointed out
that the measures would include no specific date for the UN
handover of the area to the LAF. Once he receives the
Lebanese letter, Graziano said he would formally approach the
Israeli government for their approval of the measures.
Graziano said he would see the Israeli PermRep August 15 and
plans to raise the matter informally with him, as well.

Overflights
--------------


6. (C) Graziano voiced serious concern with continued
Israeli overflights of southern Lebanon, given the risk of a

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plane being lost and the pilot having to eject in UNIFIL's
AOR. Such an event, he said, would put UNIFIL in jeopardy,
given Hizballah's recent statements about UNIFIL forces
reaching a downed Israeli pilot first. Thus, no matter what
UNIFIL did with the pilot, return him to Israel or turn him
over to Lebanon, it would be a disaster. He said that the
more the GOI can reduce the number of jet aircraft flights,
the better. He opined "unofficially" that if they wanted to
maintain visibility on the AOR they should increase their use
of UAVs, since the loss of a UAV results only in the loss of
metal, not of a pilot.

Liaison office in Tel Aviv
--------------


7. (C) Graziano raised UNIFIL's plans to open a liaison
office in Tel Aviv. He said that Israeli Foreign Minister
Livni had approved the proposal nine months ago but it
remains in limbo. Graziano said he thought there were
concerns about office members reaching out to non-military
officials. He said they had initially proposed a civilian
head but had changed to a military head at the Israelis'
request and have identified a Swedish Brigadier General. He
suggested that the Israelis may now regret their insistence
on a military head of office since it will be hard to ignore
a Brigadier General who comes knocking on the door. He
requested U.S. help in finalizing the matter.
Khalilzad