SETTLEMENTS UNSCR: ARABS LIKELY TO CONCEDE DEFEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000646 SIPDIS SENSITIVE PLEASE PASS TO S, P, IO AND NEA FRONT OFFICES E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPAL KWBG UNSC IS PA SUBJECT: SETTLEMENTS UNSCR: ARABS LIKELY TO CONCEDE DEFEAT REF: A. USUN 631 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. KUMAR-MORRISON UNCLASS E-MAILS 7/15-7/17/08 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Jeffrey DeLaurentis, per 1. 4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Arab Group Ambassadors met on July 18 to discuss the revised comprehensive resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that USUN shared with them on July 16 (ref B). (Note: This revised draft contained more language on settlements than USUN's original elements but retained strong language on terrorism. End Note.) According to Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats, their delegations argued in favor of USUN's latest proposal. The Palestinians were reportedly impressed by the revised draft, but could not accept the specific references to PA obligations under the Roadmap to fight terrorism. The Syrian, Sudanese, and Saudi delegations held firm to the earlier Arab Group decision that it could only support a settlements-focused resolution. Since USUN's latest proposal had attracted considerable support among UNSC members, however, Arab Ambassadors recognized that it would now be impossible to secure nine votes in favor of their original settlements-focused text. Therefore, they decided to recommend to their Foreign Ministers -- meeting in Cairo on July 19 -- that action should be suspended on the Arab draft resolution indefinitely. If the Arab Foreign Ministers insist on going forward, Arab Ambassadors would ask them to exert pressure on UNSC members to secure nine votes in favor of their original text, before resuming work in New York. The Egyptian Ambassador suggested that the Arab Group reconsider the issue in September 2008, on the margins of the UNGA and the next meeting of the Quartet. Comment: How Our Strategy Worked -------------- ¶2. (C) Pending confirmation from Arab Foreign Ministers, it appears that the Arabs have conceded defeat on their resolution, and will quietly drop the issue for the time being. Two months ago, when the Arabs first floated a resolution criticizing the recent expansion of Israeli settlements, they would not have predicted this outcome. Given the international consensus against Israeli settlement activity and the recent announcements of new housing tenders, the Arabs believed that they could easily muster the required nine votes, if not fourteen (including the UK and Croatia), and force the U.S. into a veto. We have seen this scenario before. We believe our strategy to deny the Arabs the nine votes they needed worked for two reasons: -- U.S. decision to engage: If USUN had refused to engage in negotiations on any Israeli-Palestinian resolution, the Arabs would have moved forward with their resolution and eventually forced most delegations to vote in favor. With no other option, the Europeans and other undecided delegations would not have been able to justify an abstention on an UNSCR about Israeli settlements to their domestic audiences. This time, USUN's willingness to negotiate a comprehensive resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (instead of one focused just on settlements) gave European and other undecided delegations a reason to back away from the Arab text and hold out for a constructive outcome in the Security Council. -- Splitting the moderates from the extremists: By adding language to our revised draft on settlement expansion but retaining strong language on terrorism, we were able to show the moderate Arab states and helpful UNSC members that we took their concerns seriously. This helped ensure that these countries would advocate for our draft instead of the Arab settlements text. It also provoked a split between those in the Arab Group that accept Palestinian obligations to fight terrorism (Egypt and Jordan most prominently),and those that do not (Syria, Sudan, and evidently the Palestinian delegation). In the Council, it provoked a split between those countries that offer knee-jerk support for any Palestinian initiative (South Africa and Libya),slightly more reasonable countries (Russia, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Burkina Faso),and our traditional allies (France, Belgium, Italy, UK, Croatia). This split led to the impasse between our draft and the Arab draft, and eventually persuaded the Arab Group to drop their initiative for lack of support. Khalilzad